August 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

Currently at 80F under partly cloudy skies. A little humid (D at 68F).

[Stormy]

Des Moines NWS thinks there could be a band of 2-4" of rain over central Iowa, with isolated 5".

And they already had a band of 1”- 2”> yesterday morning. I don’t really like the timing, but I’m getting excited about this event. A few of the models even have it going just north of my area, but I don’t really believe those, and the GFS is clueless.lol

 

It’s just so I’m in the enhanced risk area. Should’ve kept track how many times I was in “enhanced” this year.

[Niko]

My extended forecast looks awesome. Plentiful sunshine w a couple of pm storms from time to time.

 

Temps are slowly starting to fall. Autumn is definitely trying to show its presence as a few cool shots from Canada are poised to arrive.

[CentralNebWeather]

We cut football practice about 40 minutes short today. 105 heat index and 78 dew when we started. We have a higher dew than Miami which was at 73. One more day tomorrow with heat index of 100-105 then much cooler with many rain chances. Miserable for anyone with outdoor activities.

[East Dubzz]

Latest HRRR runs have the line of storms pushing even further south than I expected.

[Hawkeye]

Yeah, the HRRR and 3k NAM have edged south and both now have Ames/Des Moines to Ottumwa as the prime track, with Cedar Rapids on the far northeast edge and perhaps not getting much.  It'd be nice to get another half inch.

[Niko]

Currently at 72F w a dew of 70F n under clear skies.

[Hawkeye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
944 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 942 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

The active night still appears to be on target with little change
from previous thinking. 4-5K j/kg MUCAPEs are present along the
NE/IA border in the projected genesis area with 40-45kts of
effective shear. The only concern may be slightly delayed timing
and onset. 00z soundings and the latest model guidance do not
depict the strongest low level jet with RAP 305K inflow into the
base of the effective layer only 20kts or so. Nevertheless, once
it goes it may go quickly with fresh 00z CAMs all still depicting
a significant wind producing MCS NW-SE starting 06-09z and not
exiting southeast sections until 12z or so. If this caliber of MCS
develops as expected, it will be somewhat rare in magnitude
reflecting the infrequency of overnight Enhanced Risks in IA.
Possibly reminiscent of significant wind events in 2008 or 2010.

[OKwx2k4]

@ OKwx, the CPC boys are now seeing some cooler air finally down by you later next week...Autumn is coming

Best thing I've seen all year.

That's the most perfect temp pattern to sustain for the long haul as well. If I could dream it up, "bingo".

[OKwx2k4]

SWMI trying to act like Mexico or at least the US Rockies!

 

Guess I missed this last week:

 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/whopping-18-inches-of-hail-accumulates-in-parts-of-michigan/70009085

 

(the vid's actually kinda lame. Justwatch the 2nd one after it for something with a higher amusement factor)

That 2nd video.

Think they should have checked the forecast a bit.

[OKwx2k4]

The pattern being illustrated on tonight's 00z gfs is pure perfection x10. It's forever away, but now illustrates a 3rd cold wave at the end. Wow.

[OKwx2k4]

Just get this crap over with please....

 

"""URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Tulsa OK

254 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

 

...Very Dangerous Heat Wave to continue thru Wednesday...

 

ARZ019-020-029-OKZ060>062-064>067-070>076-202130-

/O.NEW.KTSA.HT.Y.0023.190821T1700Z-190822T0200Z/

/O.CON.KTSA.EH.W.0008.190820T1700Z-190821T0200Z/

Crawford-Franklin-Sebastian-Tulsa-Rogers-Mayes-Creek-Okfuskee-

Okmulgee-Wagoner-Muskogee-McIntosh-Sequoyah-Pittsburg-Haskell-

Latimer-Le Flore-

Including the cities of Van Buren, Ozark, Charleston, Fort Smith,

Tulsa, Claremore, Pryor, Sapulpa, Okemah, Okmulgee, Wagoner,

Muskogee, Checotah, Sallisaw, McAlester, Stigler, Wilburton,

and Poteau

254 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

 

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO

9 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY...

 

The National Weather Service in Tulsa has issued a Heat Advisory,

which is in effect from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday.

 

* HEAT INDEX...Maximum heat indices between 110 and 115 degrees

are expected this afternoon. Heat indices between 105 and 110

degrees are expected on Wednesday afternoon.

 

* TEMPERATURE...Upper 90s to low 100s.

 

* IMPACTS...The combination of hot temperatures and high

humidity will combine to create a dangerous situation in which

heat illnesses are possible.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

Never leave anyone, including pets, in a closed, parked vehicle.

Temperatures inside can reach over 150 degrees quickly, resulting

in heat stroke and death.

 

Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When

possible, reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or

evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat

stroke. Wear light weight and loose fitting clothing when

possible and drink plenty of water. To reduce risk during outdoor

work the occupational safety and health administration recommends

scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned

environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool

and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency, call 911.

 

&&

 

$$"""

[Hawkeye]

The storms have fired across Iowa.   The west-central Iowa cluster is beginning to dive southeast as expected, but what was not expected is a strong cell has popped just west of Cedar Rapids and it's moving east.

[Stormy]

It was interesting watching the evolution of this event. Got a few hours of sleep in. Ha A cell just passed by to my north with vivid lightning.

[Hawkeye]

It appears as though this cell is not just going to shoot east through Cedar Rapids.  Instead, everything should move east a bit and then pivot southeast as a mature MCS.  It's a question just how far east this warm-advection wing of storms will move before shifting southeast.  It's already struggling a bit to move into CR.  Western Benton county is getting crushed by a stationary cell with a hail core.

[Hawkeye]

Benton county is going to get a lot of rain from this.  CR just needs it to lift a bit farther northeast.

[Tom]

It appears as though this cell is not just going to shoot east through Cedar Rapids.  Instead, everything should move east a bit and then pivot southeast as a mature MCS.  It's a question just how far east this warm-advection wing of storms will move before shifting southeast.  It's already struggling a bit to move into CR.  Western Benton county is getting crushed by a stationary cell with a hail core.

I dunno, it really looks like CR is about to get crushed by this cell.  Some vivid lighting is being produced by this storm.  You see any yet?

[Hawkeye]

Yeah, there's plenty of lightning.

 

I was expecting more severe from this MCS.  At least early on, it's mostly just a big blob of rain.  South of Des Moines to Ottumwa could get some wind.

[Tom]

Yeah, there's plenty of lightning.

Slow mover as well, I could see you get a flash flood warning out of this.  Your in a prime spot.

[Hawkeye]

Boy, this cell just does not want to move east into Cedar Rapids.  For over an hour it has just been lightning/thunder here.  When I awoke at 4:30 I was excited to see the radar blow up, but it appears as though CR may just get a decent soaking from a blob of light to moderate rain, with an occasional downpour.  Benton county down through Iowa City is the bulls-eye.  There should be a very sharp rainfall gradient from the sw tip of Linn county to Marion.

[Stormy]

Yeah it’s hitting a wall. It’s going to shift south and southeast. Still looking good for me as of now. Hardly anything here except a lot of lightning/thunder as a nice cell passed by about 1 mile n. and east.

[BMT]

Man, Benton county is getting hammered.

[Hawkeye]

The CR airport is now in a prime spot.  The northeast edge of the red just moved over my house on the west side and the rain is coming down solidly now.  Just now there was a big crack.

[Stormy]

Very heavy cells near Waterloo. SW CR looking decent currently. It may shift east just enough for CR? Sure hoping the warm air advection wing doesn’t go ne. of me!

[Stormy]

Should be pouring near Hawkeye per radar.

[Tom]

Tornado warning just SE of DSM...

[Hawkeye]

Should be pouring near Hawkeye per radar.

 

It's not torrential, but it's a solid storm with heavy rain and thunder.

[Stormy]

Tornado warning just SE of DSM...

Yeah the super resolution velocity is showing very high winds in that area!

[Hawkeye]

Already a half inch, along with some real nice lightning/thunder.  It has been L/T for two hours.

 

The line is really surging into southern Iowa.

[Tom]

 

 

Yeah the super resolution velocity is showing very high winds in that area!

Nice to see this MCS finally come into fruition....you might get clipped by that severe warned cell that just popped up...

[Stormy]

My phone just alerted me to a flash flood warning here, but the radar doesn’t really impress me.

[Stormy]

This isn’t going like I expected as that WAA wing started moving ne. and now looking like I might get storms to my west and nw.

[Stormy]

Starting to look wicked to my nw!

[Hawkeye]

It looks like about an inch here, so I'm happy.  We are done with the heavy stuff at least for now.  The rest of the red will probably shift south while we get into the big blob of general rain.

 

Sparky looks good for some heavy stuff in the next hour.

[Tom]

I'm surprised to see how thick the fog is here this morning.  Visibility has to be only a few hundred feet or about a 1/2 block.  How does that folklore work??  Anyway, took a glance at the long range and an impressive signal from all the models for a major cold shot to close out the month.  Early indication this one has some legs to it into Sept.

 

When you take a gander at the 00z EPS 500mb pattern, that trough near the Archipelago is going to "seed" early season Autumnal cold down into the CONUS quite favorably.  Could there be some pockets of temps in the 30's across the high Plains later this month???

 

 

 

[Stormy]

Some intense lightning currently

[Stormy]

It’s pouring rain with the siren going in the background. Awesome!

[Tom]

It’s pouring rain with the siren going in the background. Awesome!

'Dat Bow echo....

 

[Stormy]

A wind driven downpour with quarter mile visibility for awhile now! Biggest storm of the year.

[Niko]

Currently at 72F w cloudy skies. Cannot wait for the CF to pass on by and allow that cooler, drier airmass from Canada to filter on it. It will feel awesome. Looks like t'sms for tomorrow as the front arrives. Wooohoooo!!!