August 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Iowawx]

We missed out on thunderstorms last night. Now a moderate drought is building across Iowa. This is getting so annoying. 

 

We better get some good storms tommrow night into Sunday to prevent the drought from getting even worse around here. 

[Tom]

Canada's ag belt in SW Canada is certainly going to get a real taste of Autumn over the next couple days....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Stacsh]

There’s a push of warmth out ahead of a system coming out of the Rockies during the last week of the month (25th-27th) that I’m watching to develop. It will try to push a brief period of warmth before the anticipated cool down hits. We’re prob going to see a lot of up and down temp swings.

 

I'm good with that.  What I really want is Cool HP's with temps in the 60's, low 70's, Sunny,  light wind and football on tv with the grill going.  Is that too much to ask?

[Stormy]

We definitely don’t want an early frost for the late planted crops, though we had a lot of growing degree days in July and caught up somewhat. August is pretty nice so far.

 

Another thing....NWS DMX sounds pretty bullish on heavy/severe storms for central and southern Iowa tomorrow night. Sure hoping for some heavy rain, but as they stated.....Quote: However, this pattern has been

very touchy as of late, so leaving "wiggle room" also important

consideration.

 

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDDMX&e=201908162030

[Stormy]

I saw some towers going up and checked the radar which is showing isolated cells just south of hwy 92. Surprised to see anything that far north, but I’m not expecting anything here.

[Niko]

Nice cool-down coming end of next week. Highs between 70-75F and lows 50-55F.

[Niko]

I saw some towers going up and checked the radar which is showing isolated cells just south of hwy 92. Surprised to see anything that far north, but I’m not expecting anything here.

My area is likely to get some storms tanite. Hopefully in the severe category. Another chance again on Sunday.

[Iowawx]

The lattest HRRR has the MCS in northern Missouri reaching all the way up to highway 20 in Iowa tomorrow morning. I really hope that happens, but I want to see how things come together on the radar tonight. 

[Andie]

When I was little and was sweating from the heat, I used to stick my head inside the freezer to cool off. It felt good!

I confess to many a trip to the fridge myself. And there's always jumping out of the shower and standing under the a/c vent!

[Stormy]

Cells are trying to get going nearby or just to my south now along a now stalled cool front in southern Iowa. Maybe the HRRR will verify tonight. I’m thinking storms may form along that boundary.

[OKwx2k4]

I'll post drought maps here as well. I hope it works and stays there.

 

Thank you buddy! Sorry about that. I greatly appreciate the uodate!

[OKwx2k4]

I've been bold with my prediction which was countering what the Euro Weeklies were showing last week as they were way to warm given the overall pattern that was being depicted across the N PAC/W PAC. My reasons why were shown and I'm glad I stuck to them. I'm holding steadfast onto the idea that we will see a reversal of very warm Septembers of late. Quite a different story is shaping up next month. Football season is going to look and feel like Autumn and not a continuation of Summer. I'm sure the players (and fans) for the most part, will gladly take cooler temps.

 

Anyone else ready for some cooler and comfy temps??? Oh ya, it's going to get real active as nature activates the 2nd Severe Wx season.

 

 

 

 

Need this to pan out in a bad way to "re-anchor" that Pac ridge and boost the E. PAC temps a bit going into autumn. I'll be worried if this is a head fake.

 

Some may call my objectivity playing both sides but it isn't. It's more of a "what I see" vs "how badly I know it can fail" thing. If that ridge doesn't retrograde and stand up in 3 weeks (theres still a chance of that happening) then cool autumn and good winter are a crapshoot here.

 

For you folks up north, the AO/NAO combo are about a 10 for 10 in the strong to severe winter category. You all should be elated if you love winter.

 

Yes. Its August. Sorry friends. Lol. Can't help it.

[Tom]

They are Back! The Blue Angles...never gets old...

 

 

 

 

 

The weather doesn't look to nice to head on the water and watch the Air & Water show today.  Showers/Storms are in the forecast which means the high altitude shows may not transpire.  Meanwhile, our members down near KC/N MO are getting rocked this morning and the past couple days.  My, oh my, has nature unleashed her fury and literally pouring rain down there where they needed it really bad.  Too much of a good thing?

 

 

Who's ready for an Autumn tease???  Data continues to poor in and holding stead fast that a decent cool shot hits later mid/late next week for some of us up north but a much more substantial CF is in the cards during the last week of the month. Today marks the first day our sunrise is now at 6:00am. while the sun sets around 7:47pm...daylight is slowly dwindling.

[Niko]

Had some embedded showers last night, which helped the abnormally dry conditions here.

 

Currently 75F w sunny skies. Some storms are expected this weekend, along w hot temps and humid conditions. Temps approaching near 90F both Sunday and Monday.

[Hawkeye]

A few bubbly showers have moved through the area this morning, but they all went around me.

 

It's still not clear(what's new?) how tonight will play out.  The Euro drops good rain over much of the area, but the 12z HRRR shows very little for much of eastern Iowa and the 3k NAM is spotty.  A few days ago it was the globals vs the CAMs and the CAMs won.

[Stormy]

This summer, when it comes to Iowa you never know what to expect from the model forecasts (except when they show most of the rainfall missing us), but it seems when models show a lot of rainfall for other states it often seems to pan out.

[Iowawx]

I only got 0.03" from a small shower that moved over my area earlier this morning. We really need to get some heavy rains tonight. We can easily handle 1-3" of rain. 

[westMJim]

The 3 PM temperature at Grand Rapids is 85 with a dew point of 57 so it don’t feel too bad out in the shade. Here at my house I have a temperature of 87 with a higher dew point of 63. I did not get any rain here at my house last night and look to be too far north for any rain today as well.

[Niko]

Currently 79F under partly to mostly cloudy skies.

[Hawkeye]

All day the HRRR has been taking much of tonight's storms north and south of ec/se Iowa, but the last couple runs have filled in.  I hope that's a trend that sticks.

[Iowawx]

All day the HRRR has been taking much of tonight's storms north and south of ec/se Iowa, but the last couple runs have filled in.  I hope that's a trend that sticks.

Yes, the HRRR is really good for our area. Looks like it has widespread 1-2" of rain tonight. Looks like the storms won't get here until very late tonight. 

[Niko]

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather OutlookNational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI415 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-182015-Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-415 PM EDT Sat Aug 17 2019This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeastMichigan..DAY ONE...TonightThere is a chance for thunderstorms, mainly this evening into theovernight along and south of I-94. The strongest storms will becapable of brief heavy downpours and wind gusts to 40 mph as theymove to the northeast at 25-30 mph..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through FridayConditional risk of severe weather tomorrow across all of southeastMichigan. Marginal risk currently in place with potential forupgrade to higher risk of severe weather possible. Focus will bebetween 2-9 pm with damaging winds being the primary severe weatherrisk. Locally heavy rainfall and hail up to an inch will also bepossible. Storm motion will be west to east at around 40 mph.

[Minny_Weather]

Had a line of lake breeze storms earlier in the afternoon. Muggy out now, with the smell of bonfire smoke in the air. 78.5°F.

[Hawkeye]

Yes, the HRRR is really good for our area. Looks like it has widespread 1-2" of rain tonight. Looks like the storms won't get here until very late tonight. 

 

The latest run is the best yet, blowing up a big e-w cluster of storms that trains through the central third of the state after 4am.

[East Dubzz]

Latest DVN graphic doesn’t have storms coming up between 3-6 AM. Feel like it’s been a while since we’ve had one of those.

[Stormy]

According to the NWS the heaviest storms should be just north of I-80, but some of the models have heavy stuff to my south also. NWS point forecast has my area with 90% POPS since earlier today. We'll find out soon enough. I'll be REALLY disappointed if I don't get much rainfall.

[Stormy]

That line of storms in SD is already bowing out and a couple of cells popped up in northern Ia.

[OKwx2k4]

Some corn updates

Illinois, Indiana, Ohio

https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/crops/article/2019/08/15/day-3-eastern-corn-belt-yield-break

 

They say pretty much what I have stated. USDA forecast is off at the least, absolutely, totally misleading at the worst.

I'm going with intentionally misleading.

 

This article, from the same group claims that Iowa and Nebraska will make up the shortfalls from everywhere else. I take that with a grain of salt as well, because I have spoken with a few corn/grain/gluten drivers and haulers who have clearly stated otherwise. Fun times for speculators, but I don't see where they are getting some of this data from. Especially out of Nebraska.

Buy the crash and sell after September 1. Lol. (My advice)

 

(National;Northern plains as a whole)

https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/crops/article/2019/08/16/day-4-national-average-corn-yield-2

[East Dubzz]

Some corn updates

Illinois, Indiana, Ohio

https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/crops/article/2019/08/15/day-3-eastern-corn-belt-yield-break

 

They say pretty much what I have stated. USDA forecast is off at the least, absolutely, totally misleading at the worst.

I'm going with intentionally misleading.

 

This article, from the same group claims that Iowa and Nebraska will make up the shortfalls from everywhere else. I take that with a grain of salt as well, because I have spoken with a few corn/grain/gluten drivers and haulers who have clearly stated otherwise. Fun times for speculators, but I don't see where they are getting some of this data from. Especially out of Nebraska.

Buy the crash and sell after September 1. Lol. (My advice)

 

(National;Northern plains as a whole)

https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/crops/article/2019/08/16/day-4-national-average-corn-yield-2

What would be the purpose of being intentionally misleading?

[Niko]

Some light rain falling now along w a few lightning strikes. No biggie though. Temp at 73F. Its quite muggy out there also. Dew at a very uncomfortable 71F.

[OKwx2k4]

What would be the purpose of being intentionally misleading?

Control the market. Manipulation. Hide a crisis for a badly underrepresented group in the central US. Oppose a president. Same with the V.A. the evidence is plain. There are a thousand reasons. I could name many. Folks from a certain group would have to face the fact that they are destroying farmers and costing them everything that they have. They have done it since last winter and are doing it with blocking legislation that would help those who need it most. This isn't a political thread, but I know you're a smart guy.

How does the USDA miss 5 of the largest e-coli outbreaks of our lifetime? Those folks literally stand behind people and know everything they do every second of the day. If a guy touches his nose, he gets pulled off and forced to wash his hands. You tell me.

[Stormy]

Appears as if those two lines of storms might merge just to my west! It would be better to be in the e-w part of the line, maybe. Will be kind of interesting to see it merge. Hopefully it will cause a bigger storm. Ha

[Stormy]

Wow, nice storms entering Iowa county with maybe some hail cores in purple radar returns!

[Stormy]

[Hawkeye]

When I woke up and saw the line beginning to gust out a bit, but it did reinvigorate as it moved in.  The wind was not bad, but it's a solid storm.  The rain is very heavy.

[Stormy]

[Hawkeye]

I’m getting screwed with heavy rain 1-2 miles north plus it really weakened.

 

At least you are getting some solid stuff.  One county sw of you the line has totally crapped out.

[Stormy]

Now I am in another hole. Thunder is crashing just south. Red to my west might fade. How badly can I get screwed. Ha might’ve gotten a half inch so far?

 

Not even 0.40” here. Big dud! As often, I don’t do nearly as well with a big line as with scattered storms that happen to hit.

[East Dubzz]

Nothing too special, but this has been a solid overnight storm! Some decent lightning and lots of heavy rain.

[Tom]

Hope the line of storms rocking our IA friends will hold together as it comes east.  A severe warned storm just popped up east of Iowa City.  At least most of you guys in IA are getting a nice soaking rain out of this system.