August 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Hawkeye]

A nice shower just moved over the west side of CR, dropped a couple tenths.

[Stacsh]

Cant beat this this time of the year:

 

Skies: partly to mostly cloudy

 

Current temp at 77F

Dew at 56F

Hum at 49%

No RF

UV Index a little low though....5 of 10

Looking like a muggy warm mid-late August. I love summer but ready for Fall and Football. Nothing worse than going to a game and it being unbearably hot.

[Hawkeye]

0.24" is my total from that solid shower.  It'd be nice if one of the real rain days could pan out or even over-perform.

[Niko]

Looking like a muggy warm mid-late August. I love summer but ready for Fall and Football. Nothing worse than going to a game and it being unbearably hot.

Its still Summer, so expect warm to even hot weather to persist and some humidity as well. Although, it wont be as bad (humidity wise) as it can be in July, it can still get uncomfortable to even muggy this time of the year. Remember, average highs have already started to fall, so we are heading in the right direction.

[Niko]

Currently at 65F under cloudy skies. Fairly comfortable evening outside. Did have a few spotty showers earlier, bu they have dissipated as the evening carried on.

[Niko]

@ Sparky - how are ya coping w this dry weather as a farmer. It can get quite challenging during dry spells. How do you prevent any damage from occurring in your farmland, if no rain falls for a good amount of days or even weeks.

[james1976]

Currently in Las Vegas! 11pm here and its 93 and 11% humidity! Crazy!

[OKwx2k4]

Currently in Las Vegas! 11pm here and its 93 and 11% humidity! Crazy!

What is weird is that it probably doesn't feel that bad huh? I haven't felt 11% humidity since, well, probably 2011. Enjoy your travels buddy. I'm jealous. You're kinda getting a taste of all of it in one shot.

 

This area is like a dang rainforest right now. Lol.

[Tom]

One of the super cells that formed in CO this past Tuesday produced record breaking hailstones...https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/national-weather-service-investigating-whether-monster-that-hail-fell-in-colorado-broke-a-record/70009074

[Tom]

Currently in Las Vegas! 11pm here and its 93 and 11% humidity! Crazy!

"Viva Las Vegas"...have fun out there bud..."what happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas"...how are you coping with the desert heat???  It's quite the climate out west and it takes some time to get used to it.  I could never get used to the 105F+ heat out in AZ.  Just not my cup of tea.

[Tom]

While skimming through some data this morning, happened to notice a significant drop in the SOI and is likely to wreck havoc in the modeling for the Week 2 period...my anticipation is for the models to catch onto a cool shot sometime later next week into the following weekend.

 

 

15 Aug 2019 19.85
14 Aug 2019 -17.90 
13 Aug 2019 -11.59

 

Using the East Asian Theory, notice the blocking pattern north of Japan in the "Sea of Okhotsk" which aids in a favorable W/E storm track right through Japan per the latest 00z EPS run last night.  Another clue using the pattern across the Sea of Okhotsk, it usually is a good indicator of the pattern across western Canada in the 5-7 day range.  I expect to see more ridging to develop during Week 2 across this part of N.A. which the EPS is not really showing right now so we'll see if that trends the other way over the next couple of days.

[Tom]

I wanted to comment on this yesterday so I'll share it today as Skilling created a nice graphic about it.  The pattern yesterday over here had that "winter" like look to it as a weak inverted trough swung through and actually developed a meso-low over Lake Michigan.  

 

 

[Tom]

The JMA weeklies have now reversed the pattern from last week Week 3-4 run which suggested a big ridge to develop across the MW/GL's.  Today's run is looking more like the CFSv2 and building back that western N.A. ridge and up farther north across western Canada/Alaska as we get closer to Sept.  After studying the pattern that is evolving across East Asia and the N PAC, this all is starting to make more sense in the LR model world.

 

Week 2 temp/precip...a sliver of normal across the heartland

 

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201908.D1412_gl2.png

 

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201908.D1412_gl0.png

 

 

 

Week 3-4 temp/precip....it's going to get real active 2nd half of August into Sept based off these maps below.  Upward motion across all of N.A. and the GOM is a big clue.

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201908.D1412_gl2.png

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201908.D1412_gl0.png

[westMJim]

Here at my house I recorded 0.94″ of rain last night and I see some sites had over a inch of much needed rain fall. I was outside and boy it feels cool out there this morning and the temperature here at my house is now at 59 with cloudy skies. And this from the NWS here in GR
”
BEYOND THAT SEEMS WE GET MORE OF THE SAME, SHORT WAVE AFTER
SHORTWAVE ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM. I COULD SEE AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN HERE THROUGH A GOOD PART OF NEXT WEEK. SINCE NEITHER THE
NORTHERN OR SOUTHERN STREAM SEEM TO WANT TO WIN OUT, I DO NOT SEE
ANY SIGNIFICANT COOLING OR HEATWAVE IN THE NEXT WEEK OR SO”

So that could sum up the next week or so, not real hot nor not real cool.

[Niko]

Temp at the moment is a very pleasant 64F w no humidity (Dew at 58F), fairly comfortable levels. Skies are partly to mostly cloudy.

[Niko]

It stays dry right through August w warm temps and some mugginess around as well. Hopefully, t'stms can erupt in the pm hour to water the lawn a bit. In the meantime, Sprinklers are running full-time.

[Hawkeye]

I thought we were going to get some 50s dews this midweek period, but it only dropped to the 60s.

 

Not surprisingly, the big weekend rain is getting shifted south.  The WPC had 3-4" total for a couple cycles, but that has been cut in half and I think we might have to get lucky just to get an inch.  It's pointless to get excited about any rain event this summer.  It's all phantom rain until I see it in the gauge.

[Hawkeye]

There's a nice line of storms moving through the Holdrege/Grand Island area this morning.

[Niko]

Radar looking precipitation free. My forecast looks as dry as can be. All you see is partly cloudy w 20 and 10% chance of any rainfall for the extended 10 day outlook.

[Niko]

Looks like some t'stm activity passes to my south today, but the weekend looks active

 

Per NOAA:

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeastMichigan..DAY ONE...Today and TonightThunderstorms will be possible today mainly south of the M 59corridor as an upper level disturbance passes to the south of thestate. Any thunderstorm activity today is expected to track west toeast at about 25 mph. Most likely time window for thunderstormactivity will be between 2 PM and 8 PM EDT. Gusty winds to 40 mphwill be possible along with brief heavy downpours..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through WednesdayThe potential exists for thunderstorms Friday afternoon, Saturdayand Sunday as upper level disturbances track through the Great Lakesregion.Heat and humidity will build into Southeast Michigan on Sunday.Temperatures will approach 90 degrees with heat indices expected torange between 95 and 100 degrees. A Heat Advisory may be ne

[CentralNebWeather]

There's a nice line of storms moving through the Holdrege/Grand Island area this morning.

First day of school today.  Got very dark here and had over 1/2" after 9 AM.  We have been missed a lot recently so it was very beneficial.  My class room faces north so I say the line coming in from the NW.  Students knew I was pumped as rain was pounding down and lightning and thunder were rolling.

[Tom]

Boom...12z GFS/Euro operational models are now showing a decent cool shot mid/late next week across the GL's region.  Some spots may end up with temps in the upper 60's for highs???  Autumn is lurking...in fact, 12z GEFS are now showing a rather good signal along with the CFSv2 for a more widespread significant cool shot into the central CONUS towards the end of the month.  It is actually lining up quite well with the pattern out in the western/N PAC.

 

 

 

 

[Stormy]

@ Sparky - how are ya coping w this dry weather as a farmer. It can get quite challenging during dry spells. How do you prevent any damage from occurring in your farmland, if no rain falls for a good amount of days or even weeks.

We are coping just fine. We got a few decent rains recently which were million dollar rains. Most Iowans are at the mercy of Ma nature and can’t do anything about droughts unless they have an irrigation system, which most don’t as Iowa usually sees adequate rainfall for crop growth most years. Where I live we really don’t know what a total crop failure is unless you live along a river that occasionally floods. Another thing is our soils retain moisture better than say Missouri soils which are more sandy or whatever. Below is a chart showing crops rated at poor or very poor, posted on IEM by Daryl H. Notice how Mo. often has more poorer rated crops, and I think they got better rains this summer than Iowa did, and the other map doesn’t show much dryness in Mo.

 

 

Also, I actually don’t do the crop farming. My brother does that while I manage livestock.

 

Below are the updated drought maps. Quite a bit of moderate drought showing up. Kind of surprised that I’m not included in the moderate, but maybe because of recent smallish rains, though we were dryer in July.

 

 

 

 

Looking like Tx has a large area of drought as well.

[Stormy]

0.24" is my total from that solid shower. It'd be nice if one of the real rain days could pan out or even over-perform.

You got kind of lucky there. Seems we can do just as well with scattered or isolated events as with a big system. I wasn’t aware there were showers that close yesterday.

[Minny_Weather]

Pretty heavy storms in the Northern Toledo metro but I'm all dry West of Toledo. The dark clouds are pretty to look at off in the distance, I will say. 80.6*F.

[Niko]

Gorgeous day today w plentiful sunshine but also some dark skies from time to time. No t'showers were reported though. Temps remained in the mid 70s w comfortable humidity levels (upper 50s).

[Andie]

Crickey! 91* at 9pm.

 

Heading for 103* mañana. Is it any wonder?

Well, summer isn't over.

DP 68*

Humidity 43%

 

I'm ready for a cool front, please.

[OKwx2k4]

The storm the other night in Oklahoma did in fact produce a microburst/heat burst.

 

I confirmed by an article from KOCO out of OKC. Pretty cool.

[OKwx2k4]

We are coping just fine. We got a few decent rains recently which were million dollar rains. Most Iowans are at the mercy of Ma nature and can’t do anything about droughts unless they have an irrigation system, which most don’t as Iowa usually sees adequate rainfall for crop growth most years. Where I live we really don’t know what a total crop failure is unless you live along a river that occasionally floods. Another thing is our soils retain moisture better than say Missouri soils which are more sandy or whatever. Below is a chart showing crops rated at poor or very poor, posted on IEM by Daryl H. Notice how Mo. often has more poorer rated crops, and I think they got better rains this summer than Iowa did, and the other map doesn’t show much dryness in Mo.

 

 

Also, I actually don’t do the crop farming. My brother does that while I manage livestock.

 

Below are the updated drought maps. Quite a bit of moderate drought showing up. Kind of surprised that I’m not included in the moderate, but maybe because of recent smallish rains, though we were dryer in July.

 

 

Looking like Tx has a large area of drought as well.

The drought maps aren showing up.

[Tom]

The drought maps aren showing up.

I can see them....are you trying to view on mobile or comp?

[Tom]

Happy Friday!  We had a "Terrific Thursday" with a high of 79F and comfy DP's in the mid 50's.  The first high temp in the 70's all month. It has been a warm August as we are currently running about +2F above normal.  Hopefully we can score some more precip over the next few days around here as we have missed out on some of the scattered storm action.

 

Last nights 00z Euro really dumps a significant cool shot across most of our Sub mid/late next week.  Dare I say...Pumpkin Spice Latte's for some peeps across our northern Sub Thursday morning???  Impressive low's/highs for late August into the upper 40's/upper 60's across parts of the Upper MW/MW.  This is trending to be the strongest CF during the second half of Summer which has unequivocally been the warmest part of this season.  IMO, from here on out, these fronts will continue to get stronger.  In fact, the strongest CF which I'm eyeballing comes during the last week of the month and this one could be significant.  The ag belt across southern Canada may have some issues.

 

Edit: BTW, the Euro had no clue of this potential cool down just 2-3 days ago while the GEFS were already sniffing this out.  Another coupe by the GFS/GEFS in the longer range.  

[Stormy]

I can see them....are you trying to view on mobile or comp?

That's weird. They aren't showing up for me this morning either. I'll try editing my post and see if it shows again.

[Tom]

@ Andie, there's your CF late next week...based on what I'm seeing, it looks to me that the most intense part of this Summers heat will be in the rear view mirror once you get past this weekend into early next week.  As the N.A. pattern amplifies, these troughs are going to penetrate south later this month and esp into Sept.

 

 

 

[Stormy]

The drought maps aren showing up.

I'll post drought maps here as well. I hope it works and stays there.

 

[Tom]

I've been bold with my prediction which was countering what the Euro Weeklies were showing last week as they were way to warm given the overall pattern that was being depicted across the N PAC/W PAC.  My reasons why were shown and I'm glad I stuck to them.  I'm holding steadfast onto the idea that we will see a reversal of very warm Septembers of late.  Quite a different story is shaping up next month.  Football season is going to look and feel like Autumn and not a continuation of Summer.  I'm sure the players (and fans) for the most part, will gladly take cooler temps.

 

Anyone else ready for some cooler and comfy temps???  Oh ya, it's going to get real active as nature activates the 2nd Severe Wx season.  

 

 

 

 

[Andie]

@ Andie, there's your CF late next week...based on what I'm seeing, it looks to me that the most intense part of this Summers heat will be in the rear view mirror once you get past this weekend into early next week. As the N.A. pattern amplifies, these troughs are going to penetrate south later this month and esp into Sept.

Thanks for checking this out. It's becoming pretty hard on everyone. We're adapted to living with the heat but life gets very constrained to indoors with a/c and you just want to get out. I'm watching my neighbors place while they're away and there are days.....

 

Cooler days sound like heaven right now. And yes, we need rain.

[Niko]

Gorgeous morning outside w temps in the mid 60s under sunny skies. Warmer, more humid weather coming , along w scattered pm storms, especially on Sunday. Temps could be flirting w that 90 degree mark (Sun n Mon) b4 settling back into the 80s all of next week. Humidity levels will start dropping by middle of next week as well.

[Niko]

Thanks for checking this out. It's becoming pretty hard on everyone. We're adapted to living with the heat but life gets very constrained to indoors with a/c and you just want to get out. I'm watching my neighbors place while they're away and there are days.....

 

Cooler days sound like heaven right now. And yes, we need rain.

When I was little and was sweating from the heat, I used to stick my head inside the freezer to cool off. It felt good!

[Stacsh]

I've been bold with my prediction which was countering what the Euro Weeklies were showing last week as they were way to warm given the overall pattern that was being depicted across the N PAC/W PAC.  My reasons why were shown and I'm glad I stuck to them.  I'm holding steadfast onto the idea that we will see a reversal of very warm Septembers of late.  Quite a different story is shaping up next month.  Football season is going to look and feel like Autumn and not a continuation of Summer.  I'm sure the players (and fans) for the most part, will gladly take cooler temps.

 

Anyone else ready for some cooler and comfy temps???  Oh ya, it's going to get real active as nature activates the 2nd Severe Wx season.  

 

 

 

 

 

Per GRR: "We get a push of cooler air behind the system Wed into Thursday

but we still do not get the polar jet to cleanly come through

Michigan so we do not get deep into the really cool air. This will

mean highs in the 75 to 80 degree range for mid to late week.

Another warm up will follow as the next upstream Pacific system

reaches the Great Lakes." 

So a breif cooldown it seems.

[Tom]

Per GRR: "We get a push of cooler air behind the system Wed into Thursday

but we still do not get the polar jet to cleanly come through

Michigan so we do not get deep into the really cool air. This will

mean highs in the 75 to 80 degree range for mid to late week.

Another warm up will follow as the next upstream Pacific system

reaches the Great Lakes."

So a breif cooldown it seems.

There’s a push of warmth out ahead of a system coming out of the Rockies during the last week of the month (25th-27th) that I’m watching to develop. It will try to push a brief period of warmth before the anticipated cool down hits. We’re prob going to see a lot of up and down temp swings.