August 2019 Observations and Discussion

[OKwx2k4]

I’m preparing slowly for an early fall. I don’t know how much rain we’ll see but I expect cool early. If you get info on our early rain chances - say Sept. - give me a shout.

I’ll pick up the pace.

I think you have a good 12 days or so of heat coming. That stupid ridge. Its like the opposite of 2011. (Backward)

In 2011 the big ridges popped early in spring over tx and lasted all summer before migrating east over me and Arkansas, but they were dry ridging episodes. Closed ridges. These are humid, tropical which is radically different. They won't last. They can't, but we gotta endure 117 heat indexes instead of actual dry 110s like 2011.

It will go away. I know it will. 78 percent humidity at 95-105 is bad for anyone. I'm sorry. I was out in it today and it saps everything I had.

 

I guess we got the classic "Dog days". Blah...

[OKwx2k4]

Air so thick it leaves a radar return like rain. Wow.

 

 

Right there by OKC is what I'm talking about. Wow.

[OKwx2k4]

Going to check tomorrow and see if that became what is known as a "heat burst". I know it's an outflow, but sometimes they reach temps in the high 120s to 130s and destroy stuff. Maybe it's nothing though.

 

"""""In meteorology, a heat burst is a rare atmospheric phenomenon characterized by gusty winds along with a rapid increase in temperature and decrease in dew point (moisture). Heat bursts typically occur during night-time and are associated with decaying thunderstorms.[1]

 

Although this phenomenon is not fully understood, it is theorized that the event is caused when rain evaporates (virga) into a parcel of cold, dry air high in the atmosphere- making the air denser than its surroundings.[2] The parcel descends rapidly, warming due to compression, overshoots its equilibrium level and reaches the surface, similar to a downburst.[3]

 

Recorded temperatures during heat bursts have reached well above 40 °C (104 °F), sometimes rising by 10 °C (18 °F) or more within only a few minutes. More extreme events have also been documented, where temperatures have been reported to exceed 50 °C (122 °F). However, such extreme events have never been officially verified. Heat bursts are also characterized by extremely dry air and are sometimes associated with very strong, even damaging, winds."---Wikipedia

 

I've known of these to exist. They are very real.

 

Sorry for quoting my own post, but I was able to confirm via KOCO out of OKC that this was in fact a microburst/heat burst. It destroyed some stuff in Ames OK.

The other 2 I remember occurred in May 1996 and July 1998 out there. They were classified purely as heat bursts.

 

Crazy weather!

[clintbeed1993]

Going to check tomorrow and see if that became what is known as a "heat burst". I know it's an outflow, but sometimes they reach temps in the high 120s to 130s and destroy stuff. Maybe it's nothing though.

 

"""""In meteorology, a heat burst is a rare atmospheric phenomenon characterized by gusty winds along with a rapid increase in temperature and decrease in dew point (moisture). Heat bursts typically occur during night-time and are associated with decaying thunderstorms.[1]

 

Although this phenomenon is not fully understood, it is theorized that the event is caused when rain evaporates (virga) into a parcel of cold, dry air high in the atmosphere- making the air denser than its surroundings.[2] The parcel descends rapidly, warming due to compression, overshoots its equilibrium level and reaches the surface, similar to a downburst.[3]

 

Recorded temperatures during heat bursts have reached well above 40 °C (104 °F), sometimes rising by 10 °C (18 °F) or more within only a few minutes. More extreme events have also been documented, where temperatures have been reported to exceed 50 °C (122 °F). However, such extreme events have never been officially verified. Heat bursts are also characterized by extremely dry air and are sometimes associated with very strong, even damaging, winds."---Wikipedia

 

I've known of these to exist. They are very real.

 

A heat burst took down a big blue spruce tree in my parents yard about 10 years ago. The NWS reported it and it was at night. The tree almost fell on the house. It was something

[Stormy]

.11 herr... bust central after calling for 2+

Yeah I think all of the models busted too, showing way to much QPF. Now a lot of models are showing heavy rainfall once again after several dry days, and I'm hoping they are more accurate this time! I like what the WPC & GFS are showing for my area.

 

I'm just under 1.50" so far for August. Not to bad considering how this summer went. The lawns are actually greening up a little.

 

BTW, where are you located? I can't remember.

[Tom]

Yesterdays bust was prob the biggest one of the summer over here.  All the models did horribly forecasting the weather pattern inside 24 hours.  I was looking forward to seeing some severe storms but nature had other plans.  Atleast most of the area did score some precip but not nearly as much as I'd hope to get. 

 

Pattern remains active later in the week/weekend as it now looks like this may hamper outdoor activities for the Air & Water Show this weekend.  I'm just glad the "heat wave" which was being advertised for days on the Euro has flipped to a more seasonal look for a lot of us.  FWIW, the Euro has trended towards what the GFS/GEFS have been showing for days ,esp down in the SE and across most of the MW/GL's region.

[East Dubzz]

Finished with 1.05" of rain yesterday. What a surprise that was. 

[Niko]

Areas just to my south received nearly 4"+ of water. Very hvy rainfall last night. That line of precipitation was not moving at all.

 

My area got around .50".

[Niko]

Currently at 71F w cloudy skies.

[westMJim]

No rain here last night not a drop. And at this time Grand Rapids still has only had 10 thunderstorms this summer (June, July and August) so here we are in some thunderstorm drought and it is now getting somewhat dry as well. 

[Andie]

This is our last day of a string of 100*+ days.

 

Currently 91* and rapidly heading for 103*.

 

Good news? 50% chance of rain tonight.

Scattered storms.

 

Tomorrow high - a chilly 94*.

 

It will feel like spring after this last week.

[Niko]

Some sunshine is trying to come out. Currently at 73F w mostly cloudy skies. Highs tomorrow will be in the upper 70s and lows in the upper 50s. That will feel great!

[Niko]

This is our last day of a string of 100*+ days.

 

Currently 91* and rapidly heading for 103*.

 

Good news? 50% chance of rain tonight.

Scattered storms.

 

Tomorrow high - a chilly 94*.

 

It will feel like spring after this last week.

That must feel awesome for you guys down there.

[BMT]

WPC has some impressive rain totals over the next week.  Hope this verifies.  

[Stormy]

DMX had an explanation in their morning AFD on why storms didn’t pan out in Iowa yesterday. Part of the AFD below....

 

DISCUSSION.../Today through Monday/

Issued at 322 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2019

 

Before we go forward, a short review of how things evolved since

yesterday morning's discussion. Out of the three scenarios outlined

in the discussion issued at 243am on August 12, it seems scenario 1

was the most in line with what occurred. A stronger area of

convection developed southeast of the existing thunderstorms coming

out of Nebraska yesterday morning. So, southern Iowa had the higher

rain totals. Overall, rain amounts in the official forecast were not

bad looking at 24 hour MRMS estimates, but were not placed correctly

with that caveat mentioned due to the development of the southern

storms. The model QPF was well overdone and also not placed

properly. The storms did push the warm front/stationary boundary

into southern Iowa per objective analysis, though not as far south

as the thinking at the time. Reviewing GOES-East visible and Day

Cloud Phase Distinction RGB imagery, the cloud shield with the

convection moved off to the east in roughly the expected time frame

if not a bit faster for western Iowa as outlined in the 604am

update. However, the breaks in the clouds were not as numerous in

eastern Iowa with plenty of convective cloud debris. The boundary

layer did recover with SPC analyzed 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE with deep

layer shear marginal. Further, 20z 700mb temperatures were between

10 to 12C over central and southern Iowa and 00z RAOBs from KOAX and

KTOP showed a slight cap at 850 and 750mb, respectively. These warm

temperatures aloft likely kept things in check over the forecast as

far as robust thunderstorm development versus the boundary being too

far south.

[Tom]

Both the GFS/GGEM are in somewhat agreement that we will see several rounds of storm potential Fri-Sun....nice to get some precip back in the forecast, esp across the D0 drought regions of the MW...

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

I wanted to share with you some LR thoughts, specifically post Labor Day.  Are there any clues on what we may be expecting???  Well, it's about that time of year when I begin paying more and more attention in the N PAC/Western PAC.  This year, not surprisingly, I'm beginning to see signs that its going to be an active season of tracking weather systems in this part of the world which will undoubtedly effect our weather pattern going forward.  In fact, some very interesting weather is setting up over the next 7 days.

 

With that being said, take a look at the 12z GEFS animation below and one will quickly notice how active the pattern is poised to develop from Japan and points east into the Aleutian Islands/Bearing Sea.  If we use the Bearing Sea Rule (BSR), we can extrapolate these systems which will be tracking over this region, and expect storm systems to target our Sub Forum (based on the forecasted track/trajectory) sometime during the 1st week of Sept.  I'm looking for what could possibly be an early Frost potential across the north???  Nearly all the operational/ensemble models are suggesting a large storm to spin up south of the Aleutians in about 7-8 days that'll have a big impact to our weather earlier next month.  Is summer going to start fading soon...possibly abruptly???  Surely there will be warmer spells out ahead of systems next month which is the usual theme in Autumn.  However, I'm fully onboard that strong CF's will be on the agenda so long there are no tropical disturbances in the GOM.  I do anticipate seeing tropical systems along the eastern seaboard to track in close so we'll have to see how that plays out.  I always seem to enjoy tracking Autumn storms and this year will likely be another active season.

[james1976]

Driving across Nebraska today on I80 west. Almost to North Platte. Looks like we are gonna drive into a thunderstorm. There's a Tornado Watch out over here!

We were in Lincoln last night and Omaha Sunday. We're on our way to Los Angeles and then over to Texas and then back up to the midwest!

[Hawkeye]

Driving across Nebraska today on I80 west. Almost to North Platte. Looks like we are gonna drive into a thunderstorm. There's a Tornado Watch out over here!

We were in Lincoln last night and Omaha Sunday. We're on our way to Los Angeles and then over to Texas and then back up to the midwest!

 

The storms have sunk south of I-80, so you should be good except for some light rain.

[CentralNebWeather]

Driving across Nebraska today on I80 west. Almost to North Platte. Looks like we are gonna drive into a thunderstorm. There's a Tornado Watch out over here!

We were in Lincoln last night and Omaha Sunday. We're on our way to Los Angeles and then over to Texas and then back up to the midwest!

You drove by my exit, Holdrege/Elm Creek MM 257 just west of Kearney.  Storms are moving southeast so you should be good.

[St Paul Storm]

Tornado warning for just north of downtown Mankato, MN. Other warnings popping up too. . T-storm warning for St Cloud. Could be nice line setting up with some pretty decent instability this afternoon.

[Tom]

Tornado warning for just north of downtown Mankato, MN. Other warnings popping up too. . T-storm warning for St Cloud. Could be nice line setting up with some pretty decent instability this afternoon.

Those cells over your house look like they are producing tropical downpours...slow moving...must look like a sheet of rain falling out of the sky...

[Stormy]

Man, WPC is really juiced for the week end! Hopefully we can squeeze out at least 1”of rainfall. Lol

[Niko]

Gorgeous afternoon w temps in the 70s w no humidity at all y'all

[Hawkeye]

Man, WPC is really juiced for the week end! Hopefully we can squeeze out at least 1”of rainfall. Lol

 

Boy, I guess so!  Widespread 3-4"?  I'll believe it when I see it.  The WPC was juiced yesterday, too.

[Niko]

@ Jaster - did you get any of that hvy rain yesterday?

[St Paul Storm]

Those cells over your house look like they are producing tropical downpours...slow moving...must look like a sheet of rain falling out of the sky...

Picked up about 1.1” in just over 30 min. Crazy rainfall rates these last few storms within the last week.

[jaster220]

@ Jaster - did you get any of that hvy rain yesterday?

 

Sure did Niko buddy.  0.01" of it!      Miserable FAIL by GRR. Sunday they were calling for 1-2+ inches for overnight Monday. My local grid Monday morning still touting "heavy rainfall".and I was pretty sure my 5 week drought was gonna end. NOT!!  Friday will be 6 solid weeks w/o meaningful rain here. Need a good rinse off, that's for sure. Hope you did better than me.  

[james1976]

You drove by my exit, Holdrege/Elm Creek MM 257 just west of Kearney. Storms are moving southeast so you should be good.

Well hello! That's crazy. It's fun to travel through our poster's respective areas. I always think of you all when I'm out n about on my tours. Yeah we literally traveled around that storm. Wicked looking clouds just to our south. I heard reports of tennis ball sized hail and 80mph winds. @Hawkeye yeah we literally just got a bit of light rain like you said. It was cool to travel across Nebraska. Been so long since I've done that!

[james1976]

We made it to Eagle, CO and are staying here tonight. I haven't been in the Rockies since the 90s. What a beautiful part of the country. When we got to Denver the humidity was only 18%. Amazing! And seeing the mountain skyline from miles and miles away is an amazing sight. I remember seeing that when I was younger. My bandmembers were amazed by that cuz they hadn't seen that before and they were more amazed when we actually got into the mountains. First time for them. It was a beautiful ride from Denver to Eagle. The temp quickly dropped to 55 right after we got into the mountains.... .AND.... I SAW SNOW! Lots of mountain tops out here have snow on em. And the air is so crisp and cool. It's a whole different world out here. Went thru Vail as well and saw all the cool ski resorts! I'll try to get some pics posted soon. I was driving so I had em snap a few pics. Being out here gets me even more amped for fall/winter. I return home Sept 1st....the very first day of met fall. Excited about that and perfect timing☺

[Tom]

We made it to Eagle, CO and are staying here tonight. I haven't been in the Rockies since the 90s. What a beautiful part of the country. When we got to Denver the humidity was only 18%. Amazing! And seeing the mountain skyline from miles and miles away is an amazing sight. I remember seeing that when I was younger. My bandmembers were amazed by that cuz they hadn't seen that before and they were more amazed when we actually got into the mountains. First time for them. It was a beautiful ride from Denver to Eagle. The temp quickly dropped to 55 right after we got into the mountains.... .AND.... I SAW SNOW! Lots of mountain tops out here have snow on em. And the air is so crisp and cool. It's a whole different world out here. Went thru Vail as well and saw all the cool ski resorts! I'll try to get some pics posted soon. I was driving so I had em snap a few pics. Being out here gets me even more amped for fall/winter. I return home Sept 1st....the very first day of met fall. Excited about that and perfect timing☺

Reading your post brings back memories of my road trip back in Nov '16 when I drove along I-80 through IA/NE and into CO.  Just like you, prior to my trip, it had been since my childhood years seing the mountain ranges like that.  It's such an awe inspiring way to take in the beauty of the mountains.  We also stopped at the Vail Ski resort and walked around but back then there wasn't much snow as CO was sort of in a snow drought.  We did get some light snow the night before but melted quickly as the sun came out.  Mountain living is something that I ponder about from time to time and makes me want to someday move up into the mountains.  Have fun on your trip!

[Andie]

[Niko]

Sure did Niko buddy.  0.01" of it!      Miserable FAIL by GRR. Sunday they were calling for 1-2+ inches for overnight Monday. My local grid Monday morning still touting "heavy rainfall".and I was pretty sure my 5 week drought was gonna end. NOT!!  Friday will be 6 solid weeks w/o meaningful rain here. Need a good rinse off, that's for sure. Hope you did better than me.  

 

I received bout .50", but areas just to my south got inundated w 3 to 4"+ totals. When I say south, I mean M-59 (Hall Rd). Not that far away from me. I am just north of that area. Luckily, I got some water from Ma Nature as I got clipped by a few downpours n vivid lightning and a few claps of thunder. No wind at all.

[Niko]

Currently a cool 63F under beautiful, sunny skies. No humidity expected for the rest of the week until the weekend when temps warm up into the upper 80s along w the potential for t'stms in the afternoon hours.

[Andie]

Tom has been following some of the affects of this spring and summer on farmers.

This article puts it into harsh black and white, and it's extremely unnerving.

 

"...we are facing the worst farming crisis in modern American history, and this comes at a time when U.S. farms are drowning in more debt than ever before. In fact, the latest numbers that we have show that the average U.S. farm is 1.3 million dollars in debt…

 

Farming in the 21st century has become an extraordinarily risky business, and countless U.S. farmers were already on the verge of going under even before we got to 2019.

 

Now that this year has been such a complete and utter disaster, many farms will not be able to operate once we get to 2020."

 

http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/the-average-u-s-farm-is-1300000-in-debt-and-now-the-worst-farming-crisis-in-modern-history-is-upon-us

[CentralNebWeather]

Well hello! That's crazy. It's fun to travel through our poster's respective areas. I always think of you all when I'm out n about on my tours. Yeah we literally traveled around that storm. Wicked looking clouds just to our south. I heard reports of tennis ball sized hail and 80mph winds. @Hawkeye yeah we literally just got a bit of light rain like you said. It was cool to travel across Nebraska. Been so long since I've done that!

Fortunately the worst of that storm stayed to my southwest yesterday afternoon, but caused lots of damage west of Hays Kansas.  We were in the middle of football practice when the clouds rolled in, temp dropped, and light to moderate rain fell for about 1 hour.  Quite a difference from the heat and humidity of Monday.  Love that trip to Colorado.  From my house, we can make it to Denver in about 4 1/2 hours or a little less depending on my speed.

[james1976]

Here's a few pics of the snow on the Colorado mountains

[Niko]

Cant beat this this time of the year:

 

Skies: partly to mostly cloudy

 

Current temp at 77F

             Dew at 56F

             Hum at 49%

             No RF

             UV Index a little low though....5 of 10

[Iowawx]

I guess I forgot to post my rainfall totals from the past few days. I picked up 0.36" of rain on Sunday morning from a thunderstorm, and 0.25" of rain on Monday. That puts my total at 0.61". 

 

This brings my rainfall total for the month of August so far to 1.90". That is still about 2.5" below normal. Looks like we could get some decent rains here this weekend. 

[james1976]

Currently in Green River, Utah and its 99 with 7% humidity. Wow. It's very desert like out here.