August 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Hawkeye]

So.... I am leaving for my honeymoon on Monday morning.

 

Leaving early Monday to go to Miami, then Miami to Antigua. 

 

Could this hurricane potentially cause travel issues? 

 

If TS Dorian holds together and is able to organize in the Bahamas, models suggest Sunday for a landfall.  Most models have it in central/northern Florida.

[East Dubzz]

Am I correct in saying the Euro pushed the heavier rain further south this run?

 

I believe it's showing way less..

[Tom]

Am I correct in saying the Euro pushed the heavier rain further south this run?

 

I believe it's showing way less..

Practically zilch for E IA and focusing all the rains in KS/E NE/S IA/N MO...

[East Dubzz]

Practically zilch for E IA and focusing all the rains in KS/E NE/S IA/N MO...

 

 

Hope that starts a trend. 

[Hawkeye]

12z Euro

 

[jcwxguy]

That would suck for the game Saturday at 11am in Lincoln

[East Dubzz]

That would suck for the game Saturday at 11am in Lincoln

 

Better the Nebraska game than my wedding

[Stormy]

The Euro is flip flopping. It was mostly north of my area, now it’s mostly south. Still not to trust worthy at this point.

[East Dubzz]

The Euro is flip flopping. It was mostly north of my area, now it’s mostly south. Still not to trust worthy at this point.

 

Yeah I wouldn't say any model is really trustworthy on this right now, which I hope is a good thing for me lol.

[james1976]

Mid 70s and breezy today. Mostly sunny but did have a quick pop up shower a while ago. Basically just enough to make the ground wet. A bit of a fall-like day. Might hit low 50s tonight!

[jaster220]

Many areas across N IL received over 1" of rain yesterday that came down in buckets at times.  It was the heaviest rain in over 3 months at ORD.

 

 

 

 

Really, really needed that here in Marshall. GRR's map had this area in it's 0.1-0.25" shading. More than the 0.05 I posted earlier from the local airport, but nothing close to the 0.49" recorded for the day at the airport in Battle Creek. Also noticed KBTL has scored almost 10" of rainfall during JJA to date. I'd be surprised if I've gotten 1/3 of that total here at my place. At least temps have been in check this month vs July's heater. 

[Niko]

Gorgeous late pm afternoon here in SEMI w the passage of the CF. Temps now are the mid 70s w dry air filtering in.

[Niko]

Still warm outside, but fairly dry. Temp at 70F, even at this hour w a Dew of 61F. Skies are crystal clear.

[Niko]

The Euro is flip flopping. It was mostly north of my area, now it’s mostly south. Still not to trust worthy at this point.

This kinda reminds me what goes on during the Winter months when we track the Euro

[OKwx2k4]

It's pouring right now. I mean pouring for the last 30 minutes.

Lightning and tremendous thunder in this one. Wish you guys could experience it. The house absolutely shook.

 

We have rain today and tonight forecast. We'll see if it actually does give us that much rain.

It was very warm this morning but temps are supposed to drop into the high 80's. Currently 79* and we've received just under .50" of rain in the past 40 minutes.

Nice little shower.

Yay! You finally got your cooldown!

You had to be the most patient of all of us. I know that heatwave there was brutal.

[East Dubzz]

I know it's long-term and the last thing I want to rely on right now, but I would actually be okay with the solution the NAM is showing. It has rain in the area (and a lot of it), but it is exiting the area by early afternoon. I would prefer no rain, but if it is going to rain, it'd be nice if we could get a break in the afternoon.

[St Paul Storm]

Today is the anniversary of the devastating Plainfield, IL tornado in 1990. To this day it is Chicago’s only F5 tornado on record. I lived in nearby Lockport, IL at the time, about 10 miles away. I remember stepping off the school bus around 3:30 that afternoon with all the parents standing outside looking in horror. There was no destruction where I lived, but the images of that monster are something I will never forget. It’s the only tornado I’ve ever witnessed in person. I can honestly say that this event sparked my interest in weather at age 13.

[East Dubzz]

12z NAM is still long-term, but it took quite a shift south and weaker.

 

From:

 

 

To:

 

[Niko]

Gorgeous day outside w plentiful sunshine and readings are in the 70s w no humidity. Cannot get any better than this.

[Niko]

Dorian now at 70mph and its expected to become a major Hurricane. The whole state of FL. is included inside the cone. Good luck to those people down there.

[Iowawx]

The GFS continues to show widespread rain across Iowa on Saturday. The WPC precip map looks fairly simlar to the GFS. 

 

 

[Hawkeye]

12z UK has all rain only in southern Iowa Saturday, with nothing for CR and Dubuque.

[East Dubzz]

12z UK has all rain only in southern Iowa Saturday, with nothing for CR and Dubuque.

 

Lock it in.

[East Dubzz]

Euro also keeps the area dry.

[Hawkeye]

12z Euro has also dropped the rain for the northern half of Iowa Saturday.

 

Unfortunately, EastDubzz will have to deal with a hurricane in Florida Monday.

[East Dubzz]

12z Euro has also dropped the rain for the northern half of Iowa Saturday.

 

Unfortunately, EastDubzz will have to deal with a hurricane in Florida Monday.

 

Yeah, I'm not liking the trends with that... if it ends up hitting northern FL, I'm assuming that won't impact travel. But obviously if the Euro were to verify, that may cause some issues...

[Niko]

Dorian now a CAT1 Hurricane (75mph).

[East Dubzz]

Wow, massive change on the NAM for this weekend's event. 

[East Dubzz]

Latest run of the NAM:

 

 

Not getting my hopes up, but I welcome the recent trends. Hope that continues. 

[East Dubzz]

18z GFS also much lighter on the rain:

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Low of 50 this morning. By 4 pm is was 85 with a dew of 70. So sick of humidity. I don’t know how those in the south deal with it for much longer than my area. Just saps your energy.

[OKwx2k4]

Low of 50 this morning. By 4 pm is was 85 with a dew of 70. So sick of humidity. I don’t know how those in the south deal with it for much longer than my area. Just saps your energy.

It sucks. I would rather do 108° and 35 dews. You do acclimate and drink tons and tons of water and electrolytes, but I hate summer here. This year made me want to move.

[Tom]

The NWS will be making some changes to their wording in Flash Flood Warnings this Fall.  They will include words like "catastrophic" & "considerable"...

 

 

 

There is an important change coming to Flash Flood Warnings (FFWs) late this fall. When there is higher expected or observed severity of flash flood impacts, these warnings will receive CONSIDERABLE or CATASTROPHIC damage threat tags. Once the impact-based FFW format is fully implemented, wireless emergency alerts (WEAs) will be limited to ONLY those FFWs with the damage threat tags. Currently, all FFWs trigger WEAs, which are free notifications delivered to your mobile device.

 

 

 

[Niko]

Currently sunny and gorgeous outside w temps at 72F. Gotta luv it!

 

Note: Next week high temps in my area do not get outta the 60s for highs. This will be a strong push of cool air coming.

[Niko]

Everyone in the SE of the United States coastline and Gulf Coast regions need to watch Dorian. Any path is a potential.

[East Dubzz]

Well, had to move my honeymoon back a week. Seems like a majority of the flights heading to Antigua are from Miami, and that obviously won't be an option on Monday. Oh well, a week later isn't a huge deal. Just hope no more hurricanes form!

[CentralNebWeather]

It sucks. I would rather do 108° and 35 dews. You do acclimate and drink tons and tons of water and electrolytes, but I hate summer here. This year made me want to move.

I'm with you.  With all of our flooding rains then irrigation season in full swing, there is just a lot of water for the atmosphere.  Plus the corn is running behind where normally by now you see it more mature.  Just been a very strange year that's for sure.

[CentralNebWeather]

We are now up to 82 degrees with a 72 dew.  First night of High School Football in Nebraska tonight and Friday night.  Looks like decent chances of rain and tstorms tomorrow night.  

[Iowawx]

The NWS drought monitor still has Cedar Rapids in a moderate drought. I am still really confused by that. My August rainfall total so far is 4.80" which is about 0.4" above normal. Hard to see how we are still in a drought. 

 

We have a small chance of storms today and rain is still possible on Saturday so that should add to the rainfall total. 

[Niko]

Currently sunny and beautiful outside w a temp of 72F and dew of 51F. Absolutely splendid!