April 2014 Observations and Discussion

[NEJeremy]

Not to make anyone jealous but it's supposed to be 82 here tomorrow:) however it's another red flag warning day with humidity less than 20% and winds over 30 mph

[East Dubzz]

Just took a look at the 12z Euro, man it would be nice if that came true.

[Money]

Are you talking about snow or the warmer temps on the euro lol

[East Dubzz]

Are you talking about snow or the warmer temps on the euro lol

Oh yeah, good point. Lol. I was talking about the rain this weekend. Didn't really even look at the temps besides that.

[Money]

0z gfs crushes N. IN and MI

 

6-10

 

Takes the secondary low through S IL 

[Money]

Looks like the euro is sticking to its guns 

[East Dubzz]

Wow, got down to 27 this morning. And the forecasted high today is 68. Just a 40 degree swing

[Geos]

EURO swung towards the 6z GFS. Mainly a wet frontal passage, except for northern lower MI. 

 

Managed a low of 29° here. Already 34°

[gosaints]

EURO now a nothing storm as well

[Meichel]

Bottomed out at 33º here this morning. Up to 44º already. Sunny with light winds. Gorgeous day.

[East Dubzz]

The south winds are starting to pick up a little more now, and the temp is starting to quickly rise. Up to about 50 now.

[Money]

12z GFS is completely different from 6z. Stronger storm and snow into nebraska and iowa through hr 105

[Money]

Looks like 2-4/3-5 from NEB through IA/WI

 

1000.3 around STL at HR 114

[Money]

Looks EXACTLY like the EURO from the past couple runs.

 

N. IL/WI gets crushed. 

[Money]

14-16 for Milwaukee

 

6 for N. suburbs of Chicago and 10-14 for the rest of S. WI

 

Temps in the 25-28 range when the heaviest snow is falling as well.

[gosaints]

Last night EURO showed basically no snow of significance anywhere

[Money]

I'm saying before that for the last 4-5 days. It probably had a bad run. We'll see on the 12z run, but GFS looked exactly the euro from the previous days. 

[Money]

You can tell right from HR 78-84 that this was going to be a much different run. The previous GFS runs broke off a piece of energy and had a weak low come through, 12z GFS didn't do that and kept everything in one piece. 

[Tom]

12z GFS...wondering if this is a wennie run or if it might have some validity to it.  Let's see what the GGEM/EURO show.  You can see how the GFS is trying to slow the energy from kicking out faster to the east and also showing better phasing this run.

 

EDIT: This storm also hits at night so sticking won't be that much of a problem.

[Geos]

GFS is good for a laugh. Those amounts are really ridiculous with marginal surface temperatures.

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014040912&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=144

 

---

 

Up into the mid 50s now at 11:30.

[Money]

"margnal surface temps?"

 

The 2M temps are 25 when the snow is falling and surface temps are well below zero. Most of the storm falls overnight as well.

[Money]

GGEM not playing ball

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/236_100.gif

[Geos]

"margnal surface temps?"

 

The 2M temps are 25 when the snow is falling and surface temps are well below zero. Most of the storm falls overnight as well.

 

Marginal near the lake I should say.

 

 

Daytime event also...

[Money]

It's a 3 AM-9 AM event

 

It's not in the middle of the day.

[tim the weatherman]

GFS is good for a laugh. Those amounts are really ridiculous with marginal surface temperatures.

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014040912&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=144

 

---

 

Up into the mid 50s now at 11:30.

i agree geos that money is wrong about the well below temps at this time of the year that we see those temps during the winter and i found out that your forecast that you will not getting that foot of snow on monday into the night(percent on monday40% and monday night 20%).

[Money]

Do you know how to use a period?

[gosaints]

Gonna get a little heated in here for this one I believe.  GGEM not playing ball as Money said. 

[Money]

Waiting for the GFS/GGEM ensembles and see what they say. GFS def. could be an outlier, we'll see what the 12z euro shows.

 

GGEM ended up taking a weaker low (1005-1006) through N. ARK into S. Ohio 

[Money]

GFS Ensemble HR 108

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/f108.gif

[Money]

HR 114

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/f114.gif

[Money]

HR 120

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/f120.gif

[Money]

Last one (HR 126)

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_12z/f126.gif

[Money]

Looks like the majority have a pretty good storm and similar to the OP. Decent agreement. 

[Tony]

Just going to make a quick comment. The GOM is WIDE open for business so if there is enough cold air supply for this storm then someone is going to get nailed. Very impressive looking storm...so far....and as we know changes will definitely be coming on future runs but still interesting nonetheless.

[NEJeremy]

Lol! From what I can decipher from your garbled longest run on mess of a sentence, I have to laugh at the fact you go straight to the nws grid forecast to say it's not going to happen. Last I knew the nws changes their forecasts all the time and even if all the models agreed on a foot the nws forecast wouldn't say that in the grids anyways with how far out we still are.

 

 

i agree geos that money is wrong about the well below temps at this time of the year that we see those temps during the winter and i found out that your forecast that you will not getting that foot of snow on monday into the night(percent on monday40% and monday night 20%).

[Money]

Yeah, they don't update grids until after all the models are in and usually right before the AFD come out (2-3 pm or so and 2-3 am)

[Geos]

It's a 3 AM-9 AM event

 

It's not in the middle of the day.

 

For you maybe. 7am -1pm here. 

 

About the time it would turn to snow here. (12z)

 

 

Skilling on board with a rain snow mix.

 

So far my grid has rain likely for the event; high lower 40s, low near 36°.

[Money]

Bufkit for MKE

 

140414/0300Z 111 02024KT 30.1F SNOW 10:1| 3.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.341 10:1| 3.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34 100| 0| 0
140414/0600Z 114 03020KT 31.0F SNOW 11:1| 2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.243 10:1| 6.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.58 100| 0| 0
140414/0900Z 117 02022KT 29.9F SNOW 12:1| 5.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.423 11:1| 11.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.01 100| 0| 0
140414/1200Z 120 01027KT 28.1F SNOW 13:1| 6.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.480 12:1| 17.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.49 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140414/1500Z 123 01026KT 29.0F SNOW 6:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.195 11:1| 18.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.68 100| 0| 0
140414/1800Z 126 35022KT 31.0F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 11:1| 18.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.70 100| 0| 0
140414/2100Z 129 32011KT 32.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 11:1| 18.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.70 0| 0| 0
140415/0000Z 132 29008KT 32.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 11:1| 18.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.70 0| 0| 0

 

Starts snowing at 3z

 

Geos wrong again.

 

Most of the snow falls from 3z to 12z

[Money]

Euro might be on-board again.

 

HR 120 has a 997 L in S. MI with 850 mb temps cold enough for snow. Although the L does look kinda goofy.

 

We'll see what Tom has to say.

[gosaints]

Is it more organized on the backside?