November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[ShawniganLake]

Agreed. The only way to go!

That looks pretty new. I have the BR 700

[Jesse]

Backpack blower is the only way to go.

Surprised those aren’t banned up there. I think they are in the city of Portland.

[MossMan]

That looks pretty new. I have the BR 700

It’s about 5yrs old now. We had the 700’s at my previous job, they are fantastic but I wanted something lighter for home use since my back/neck are toast from 20+yrs of manual labor...And not being smart about it in my 20’s. Anyway this little guy does the job okay.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Things are looking really interesting going forward. As I've mentioned many times the pattern has to get shaken up by the current MJO wave The analogs to the GFS solutions are quite awesome.

Unfortunately the GFS looks like an outlier. The Euro and its ensembles, the Canadian and especially its ensembles pretty much continue the theme of high pressure over us for the next few weeks.

[Jesse]

Agreed. The only way to go!

https://www.rd.com/home/gardening/leaf-blower/

[MossMan]

https://www.rd.com/home/gardening/leaf-blower/

Oh good god.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Oh good god.

I agree. We had a bunch of leaves last year that were left beneath the snow just before the first real snow of the season. 4 months later, after the snow melted, they were still there, not having composted at all.

[Gradient Keeper]

Unfortunately the GFS looks like an outlier. The Euro and its ensembles, the Canadian and especially its ensembles pretty much continue the theme of high pressure over us for the next few weeks.

I'm seeing that too the 00z CMCE is milder than the GFS....

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF is way drier than the 12Z run... no AR event even for Oregon. More split flow on this run.

[ShawniganLake]

Surprised those aren’t banned up there. I think they are in the city of Portland.

There has been mumblings about banning them in parts of Victoria. People always find something to whine about. My backpack blower operates at 75 decibels. A little more than a vacuum cleaner and a little less than a lawn mower.

[Gradient Keeper]

https://www.rd.com/home/gardening/leaf-blower/

What a bunch of ******* cry babies. NOPE!

 

6z GFS in 2 hours 44 minutes

12z ECMWF in 11 hours 1 minute

[Gradient Keeper]

00Z ECMWF is way drier than the 12Z run... no AR event even for Oregon. More split flow on this run.

7 Day Rainfall Totals

 

[MossMan]

I agree. We had a bunch of leaves last year that were left beneath the snow just before the first real snow of the season. 4 months later, after the snow melted, they were still there, not having composted at all.

Yeah and over here if you leave the leaves on the grass for any period of time it creates diseases and death to the grass blades. Not to mention roof/gutter damage, a mucky awful driveway...yeah that would not work for me.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Unfortunately the GFS looks like an outlier. The Euro and its ensembles, the Canadian and especially its ensembles pretty much continue the theme of high pressure over us for the next few weeks.

Maybe the Euro is coming around to the GFS idea. Hope so.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Just a thought about the temperature maps. Looking at day 9 on the Euro, for example, it shows at 4PM, which would be close to the high for the day, temps in the mid 40s for Bellinghm, upper 40s for Seattle, mid 30s for my area, and 50 for Portland. That seems to be at or below normal. Definitely below normal for Bellingham and for my area. BUT the map says it is 11 degrees above normal for Seattle, implying that it is normally about 38 for a high on November 22nd. 3 degrees above normal for Wenatchee, meaning the normal high for Nov. 22nd is 32.

And 6 degrees above normal for Bellingham, meaning that their normal high is 38 or 39. All are obviously false, so where in the hell do they get their anomaly maps?

[El_Nina]

Surprised those aren’t banned up there. I think they are in the city of Portland.

merica

[TT-SEA]

Just a thought about the temperature maps. Looking at day 9 on the Euro, for example, it shows at 4PM, which would be close to the high for the day, temps in the mid 40s for Bellinghm, upper 40s for Seattle, mid 30s for my area, and 50 for Portland. That seems to be at or below normal. Definitely below normal for Bellingham and for my area. BUT the map says it is 11 degrees above normal for Seattle, implying that it is normally about 38 for a high on November 22nd. 3 degrees above normal for Wenatchee, meaning the normal high for Nov. 22nd is 32.

And 6 degrees above normal for Bellingham, meaning that their normal high is 38 or 39. All are obviously false, so where in the hell do they get their anomaly maps?

There is a 6-hour max temp map on WB. And it usually runs 3-4 degrees too cool.

 

Using your example... here are the high temps on day 9 on WB:

 

[Jesse]

There has been mumblings about banning them in parts of Victoria. People always find something to whine about. My backpack blower operates at 75 decibels. A little more than a vacuum cleaner and a little less than a lawn mower.

I hate the D**n things. But that is just my opinion.

[Gradient Keeper]

Let's take a look back. Last week some models/runs and even ensembles were suggesting a *possible* pattern change around November 9th. The EPS said NOPE! Fast forward to a few days ago and the possible pattern change was pushed back to the 16th. Other than 1 or 2 times the EURO/EPS said NOPE! Now we're at November 14th and yet again the GFS/GEF/GEM/CMCE are showing some wet weather with a pattern change around November 23rd-24th pushed back again. EURO/EPS says NOPE!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

There is a 6-hour max temp map on WB. And it usually runs 3-4 degrees too cool.

 

Using your example... here are the high temps on day 9 on WB:

 

And the same hour on pivotal. Different temps for sure.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 10 shows some flattening of the ridge, but that's so far out. EPS probably won't. A hunch.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z ECMWF Day 10 shows some flattening of the ridge, but that's so far out. EPS probably won't. A hunch.

 

 

Kinda splitty

[GHweatherChris]

I hate the d**n things. But that is just my opinion.

Why?

[Phil]

Agreed. The only way to go!

Ditch that wimpy Stihl, dude.

 

Echo 8010 or Redmax 8500 are the big kahunas.

[Phil]

https://www.rd.com/home/gardening/leaf-blower/

Dumbest article I’ve ever read.

 

Blowers are a way of life for those of us surrounded by old 150ft hardwoods that drop leaves, acorns, and nuts year round.

[Phil]

I hate the d**n things. But that is just my opinion.

I guarantee you’d buy one if you lived here.

[Jesse]

I like the way the Euro looks to be trending at hour 240.

[Gradient Keeper]

Kinda splitty

and kinda shitty

 

6z GFS in 1 hour 23 minutes

[Deweydog]

Loud things scare me and I HATE them and they should be OUTLAWED.

 

- my dogs

[ShawniganLake]

00Z ECMWF is way drier than the 12Z run... no AR event even for Oregon. More split flow on this run.

Hmm. Models underestimating the persistence of this split flow pattern. Not too surprised

[Jesse]

Didn’t realize this place was a leaf blower fan club.

 

Good lord.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Didn’t realize this place was a leaf blower fan club.

 

Good lord.

No need to buy one here. I like raking. I can only do it when other people are here so it’s been really nice to have dry weather to make it easier, even though we need the rain.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z CMCE Analog Composite

Day 6-10 No pattern change. Ridge right along the Coast. C = 0.950400

Day 8-14 No pattern change. Ridge strengthens axis near the Coast. C = 0.912711.

 

Crummy.

 

12z NAM in 5 hours 23 minutes

[ShawniganLake]

Nov 20th is getting pretty close now. Not looking good for that one.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z EPS Day 9-10 some hints the ridge is flattening. Maybe. Perhaps. C'MON!!!!

 

[Phil]

^^ Need that pattern in February. I’d be a happy man.

 

Too bad it’s November. #Wasted

[Phil]

Enjoy this mild, zonal reprieve while it lasts..because it might be the last one until late January.

 

Mr. -EPO is almost certainly coming back, either later this month or in December.

[Gradient Keeper]

Enjoy this mild, zonal reprieve while it lasts..because it might be the last one until late January.

 

Mr. -EPO is almost certainly coming back, either later this month or in December.

As long as it coincides with a -PNA that sounds great to me!

[Phil]

As long as it coincides with a -PNA that sounds great to me!

Probably not, but a -PNA isn’t required for Arctic blasts out there. Doesn’t look crazy +PNA either, though.

[Deweydog]

Nov 20th is getting pretty close now. Not looking good for that one.

That blows.

 

Leaves.