April 2014 in the PNW

[Jesse]

Quite the temperature rollercoaster for the next 7-days on the 00z GFS. Dynamic!

[snow_wizard]

Quite the temperature rollercoaster for the next 7-days on the 00z GFS. Dynamic!

 

I'm starting to enjoy this a bit more than I have been.  Today was pretty crazy with the temp dropping to the low 40s around noon and a nice dusting of snow on the mountains.  Hard to believe it might hit 80 in a few days.

[Timmy Supercell]

Low of 18 degrees this morning in Klamath Falls. Matched a record of 18 in 1967.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is way better... keeps the weekend decent (not great but not real cold or wet either) with the low remaining offshore.   And then goes back to ridging next week.

 

12Z Canadian is way different than its 00Z run as well.   The ULL offshore gets pulled apart over the weekend.

 

Dynamic usually means cold and wet... be nice to avoid it altogether.     A dry, cold clipper system would be fine but I don't see a path to that scenario.   The 00Z ECMWF showed a slow, meandering low and copious rain over the weekend.    

[chinook]

12Z GFS is way better... keeps the weekend decent (not great but not real cold or wet either) with the low remaining offshore.   And then goes back to ridging next week.

 

12Z Canadian is way different than its 00Z run as well.   The ULL offshore gets pulled apart over the weekend.

 

Dynamic usually means cold and wet... be nice to avoid it altogether.     A dry, cold clipper system would be fine but I don't see a path to that scenario.   The 00Z ECMWF showed a slow, meandering low and copious rain over the weekend.    

 

Definitely looking forward to the upcoming week.  It would seem a strong ridge would take any weak systems apart as long as there isn't a string of them.  This seems unlikely.  I have a couple of garden boxes to get ready.  Still not ready to plant.  Perhaps by mid-May.  Tomatoes and Peppers are growing in the greenhouse as well as some Okra.

 

Currently...52f under Partly Sunny skies.

 

We did have 3/4 inch of rain yesterday...after a series of strong showers that passed through yesterday. 

[Jesse]

Euro still holding strong with a big pattern crash this weekend. Nice to see.

[TT-SEA]

Euro still holding strong with a big pattern crash this weekend. Nice to see.

 

 

Hardly a crash... much cooler than the the middle of this week but that warmth is not sustainable obviously.

 

Its noticeably slower with the upper low off the coast.   It really just oozes in here from Friday through Monday.   Pretty much the complete opposite of a dry, clear, quick-moving clipper system.

 

Just a slow return to damp and cool weather.   Not sure how that would be exciting or interesting?

[Jesse]

Hardly a crash... much cooler than the the middle of this week but that warmth is not sustainable obviously.

 

Its noticeably slower with the upper low off the coast. It really just oozes in here from Friday through Monday. Pretty much the complete opposite of a dry, clear, quick-moving clipper system.

 

Just a slow return to damp and cool weather. Not sure how that would be exciting or interesting?

I can almost feel the rage.

[TT-SEA]

I can almost feel the rage.

 

You are just in heat-avoidance mode from now until October... and will gladly take days of light rain and clouds over anything even remotely warm.   You value cold weather over sunshine.   Even if its cold, damp, and gloomy.

 

Seems strange of course to most people... but thats you!

[Deweydog]

The snow in February sure was fun!

[TT-SEA]

The snow in February sure was fun!

 

 

Seasons suck.   Why can't it be cold and gloomy all year long?   If only we could avoid the absolute brutal, endless summers we have here in the western lowlands.

 

I will spend the next 6 months hoping for nothing but troughing to minimize seasonal changes.  

[Jesse]

You are just in heat-avoidance mode from now until October... and will gladly take days of light rain and clouds over anything even remotely warm. You value cold weather over sunshine. Even if its cold, damp, and gloomy.

 

Seems strange of course to most people... but thats you!

Settle down.

[Deweydog]

Seasons suck.   Why can't it be cold and gloomy all year long?   If only we could avoid the absolute brutal, endless summers we have here in the western lowlands.

 

I will spend the next 6 months hoping for nothing but troughing to minimize seasonal changes.  

 

Better question... Why can't you shut up about it for five minutes?  

[TT-SEA]

Better question... Why can't you shut up about it for five minutes?  

 

Just went a good 30 minutes.   

[Jesse]

Wow, the 12z Euro ensembles look even troughier than the operational for next weekend and beyond.

[Jesse]

I'm surprised we don't have a forecast thread for this week's warm spell yet.

[TT-SEA]

Wow, the 12z Euro ensembles look even troughier than the operational for next weekend and beyond.

 

Wow.   

 

Not really though... about the same.    Of course there is some blending on the ensembles.   Placement of lows gets muted but probably does not represent reality at this time of year.   There will be ULLs floating around.    Placement is everything!   

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!Geopotential%20at%20500hPa!North%20America!240!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2014042812!!chart.gif

[Jesse]

Looks like the 18Z is falling in line with the EURO for next weekend.

[TT-SEA]

I'm surprised we don't have a forecast thread for this week's warm spell yet.

 

 

Hope to avoid real heat this week.    

 

Much better in late April and May to keep it at an even keel as much as possible.   Seems like in my browsing of historical records... extreme heat events in May tend to lead to weeks of complete crap with daily rain.     

[Jesse]

Hope to avoid real heat this week.    

 

Much better in late April and May to keep it at an even keel as much as possible.   Seems like in my browsing of historical records... extreme heat events in May tend to lead to weeks of complete crap with daily rain.     

 

Thursday looks like it could be pretty extreme down here. Upper 80s possible. Very good chance PDX breaks their record high of 85 for May 1st.

[TT-SEA]

I do like the trend of keeping the low offshore and to the southwest over the weekend... as the 00Z GFS shows.

 

Obviously it will be troughy... but that is a much better type of troughy than having the low moving inland over us or to the north.

 

The models seem to be locking in on a solution that would keep it a little warmer and with more chance for some sunbreaks over the weekend in between showers.

[Jesse]

I do like the trend of keeping the low offshore and to the southwest over the weekend... as the 00Z GFS shows.

 

Obviously it will be troughy... but that is a much better type of troughy than having the low moving inland over us or to the north.

 

The models seem to be locking in on a solution that would keep it a little warmer and with more chance for some sunbreaks over the weekend in between showers.

Wishful thinking. All three GFS runs so far today have shown a cool trough centered over the west. That and the EURO/Euro ensembles. You would side with the Euro any other time but right now it's not showing what you want to see.

[TT-SEA]

Wishful thinking. All three GFS runs so far today have shown a cool trough centered over the west. That and the EURO/Euro ensembles. You would side with the Euro any other time but right now it's not showing what you want to see.

 

 

All the models look similar now.

 

I am comparing to some previous runs of the GFS... which showed colder and wetter onshore flow.

 

You are just rooting for whatever I don't want... even if that means you having to deal with cold rain all weekend.    I don't have the energy to keep up with you.   I am just hoping for something other than dark, cold, and wet.    That is all.  

[TT-SEA]

Is it possible that he (and others) genuinely don't like the same weather conditions that you do, maybe even the kinds of conditions that might just seem clinically insane to you?

 

Drop the melodrama.

 

I am well aware.

 

I also know that Jesse does not like cold, dark, and wet.      Just cold.    He optimistically thinks cold will come without the dark and wet... and that is much harder around here.  

[TT-SEA]

Pretty bland pattern on the 00Z GFS in the long range.   

 

I guess that is good.   Not sure.

[Weather101]

Who even wants rain and clouds at this time of year? Bring on the sun and NHL playoff hockey!!

[TT-SEA]

Kind of a clam night here in Bothell. Spent thirty minutes deciding whether or not to purchase an air conditioner at Lowe's. Decided against it, but if the Nino keeps growing and more signs point to a 1998esque Spring-Summer, I might have to finally purchase one before they are marked up or gone.

 

 

1998 was following a major Nino... not before.  

 

And the summer of 1998 did not get warm until July.   It was pretty chilly and wet through June.   

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is not too bad for the weekend up here... worse down on Oregon and SW WA.

 

But then holds back much more energy early next week with a tightly wrapped ULL right over us on Monday.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_147_precip_p06.gif

 

 

At least that is on Monday... best day of the week to have that set-up.  

[Jesse]

My mistake, the years just seem to blur together.

 

Luckily it doesn't look like a strong El Nino is in the cards at any rate.

[Jesse]

Gorgeous day. High of 73 after a low of 45. Feels quite pleasant out there with the breezy east winds and low DPs.

[Jesse]

Looks like SEA got as warm as PDX today. Didn't see that one coming.

[Deweydog]

12z sher was dynamic.

[luminen]

57F dew point at EUG.

 

PDX at 36F. 

[TT-SEA]

NAM MOS is going crazy for Thursday... 88 at SEA.

 

Not good.  

 

History in the last 40-50 years says we will pay for this for a long time.    

 

Was not always that way... there was late April / early May heat numerous years between 1900-1910 and again in 1926 and 1931 when it did not turn miserable for weeks afterwards but rather stayed generally nice.

 

But then you have years like 1976 and 1998 when it was followed by really ugly weather through June.

[TT-SEA]

Fingers crossed.

 

Strong Ninos pretty much suck... they tend to mess up summer and then result in meandering warm front drizzle most of the winter.

 

I would love to stay close to neutral for another year.    

 

2013 was a very enjoyable year.

[Deweydog]

NAM MOS is going crazy for Thursday... 88 at SEA.

 

Not good.  

 

History in the last 40-50 years says we will pay for this for a long time.    

 

Was not always that way... there was late April / early May heat numerous years between 1900-1910 and again in 1926 and 1931 when it did not turn miserable for weeks afterwards but rather stayed generally nice.

 

But then you have years like 1976 and 1998 when it was followed by really ugly weather through June.

 

[TT-SEA]

Starts raining on Friday now per the 00Z GFS and does not really stop until Tuesday.

 

Same per the 00Z Canadian.

 

Lovely.   No middle ground.   How about sustainable upper 60s and partly cloudy?

[BLI snowman]

Starts raining on Friday now per the 00Z GFS and does not really stop until Tuesday.

 

Same per the 00Z Canadian.

 

Lovely.   No middle ground.   How about sustainable upper 60s and partly cloudy?

 

I heard it was cold in Yellowknife this morning. What gives?

[TT-SEA]

I heard it was cold in Yellowknife this morning. What gives?

 

 

Not too bad... its still 43 there now.   

[Phil]

I know I've taken a lot of flack for OT posts, but I hope this is ok to post here.

 

Current Great Lakes ice coverage is literally nuking records. Pretty amazing to see. Some locations are seeing the coldest Jan-Apr period on record, going back to the 1800s.

 

http://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/20140428180000_cvchdctgl_0007639787.gif

 

Not hard to understand why. Raw temps from all Midwestern stations within the USHCN network (unadjusted), graphed by Steven Goddard:

 

http://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/screenshot-at-apr-29-16-00-01.png