April 2014 in the PNW

[stuffradio]

April is coming in like a Lamb! I'm hoping the worst of our Rain storms are done for the year until at least the fall. The CPC is not confident at all on any solution for April in their latest monthly update for April released today.

[Timmy Supercell]

By May I better start getting Upper Level Lows parking near SW Oregon or I'm gonna go nuts

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like some moderate to heavy rain moving off the Cascades into the SE PDX Metro area just to my north.

[richard mann]

-
.. It's snowing in Palm Springs.
 
— In large part, due (Obviously.) to Global Warming. @

 

 

(April "fools".)
 
.. top it. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Today is my day.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Snow falling across much of Central Oregon this first day of April.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

First look at May.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20140401.201405.gif

[stuffradio]

First look at May.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20140401.201405.gif

It must be April fools! That's an incredible looking forecast, in a bad way. It's bad for the Agriculture industry. Last year it was drought and hot hot hot weather, this year it's cold cold cold and too much rain in the corn belt I think.

[TT-SEA]

It must be April fools! That's an incredible looking forecast, in a bad way. It's bad for the Agriculture industry. Last year it was drought and hot hot hot weather, this year it's cold cold cold and too much rain in the corn belt I think.

 

 

Last spring... planting was VERY late in the Midwest because of endless cold and rain/snow.   It was snowing well into May.

 

You are thinking of 2012.   

 

This spring is starting to look like last spring.    I hope we have repeat of the perfect summer as well.   

[ClarkCountyChill]

First look at May.

 

 

If I recall correctly, the CFS has shown every month well-above average for the PNW on its forecast a month out since last summer. It was only right about September and January.

 

What is it showing for April now?

[ClarkCountyChill]

Snow falling across much of Central Oregon this first day of April.

Stopping for breakfast in Madras right now where it's 39 with light rain. Looks like we will be hitting snow around Bend/Redmond, though.

[stuffradio]

If I recall correctly, the CFS has shown every month well-above average for the PNW on its forecast a month out since last summer. It was only right about September and January.

 

What is it showing for April now?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaPrecProb.201404.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201404.gif

[stuffradio]

Last spring... planting was VERY late in the Midwest because of endless cold and rain/snow.   It was snowing well into May.

 

You are thinking of 2012.   

 

This spring is starting to look like last spring.    I hope we have repeat of the perfect summer as well.   

So I am. Time flies by, and it was very torturous that year looking at all the nice temps in the East in March/April etc. while we were suffering with day after day of Rain and below normal temps.

[chinook]

Sun is peaking through the clouds.  

 

49f

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF still solid with a big ridge next week.   

 

Always skeptical at this time of year... these things tend to crash much quicker than the models show.   

 

Would love for the ECMWF to verify though... would be a little preview of summer.    It could also end in a thunderstorm situation with a big ULL approaching our warm air mass from the west.     Good stuff for everyone and better than more cold rain.

[ClarkCountyChill]

The operational Euro is showing its usual bias of holding too much energy offshore. We aren't going to see 4-5 days of 850mb temps over +12c. Expect a solution closer to the GFS. A couple days well into the 70s then a quick breakdown.

[TT-SEA]

The operational Euro is showing its usual bias of holding too much energy offshore. We aren't going to see 4-5 days of 850mb temps over +12c. Expect a solution closer to the GFS. A couple days well into the 70s then a quick breakdown.

 

 

Well... now you jinxed it for yourself and made most other people on here happy since this means it will in fact happen.    

[ClarkCountyChill]

Btw, in Bend now and it's snowing moderately. Very pretty. Looks like maybe 3-4 inches.

 

I am curious how much they have in Christmas Valley, where we're staying tonight. They are over 1,000ft higher than here.

[BLI snowman]

Another gorgeous day up here. Going to crack 60 again.

[epiceast]

Btw, in Bend now and it's snowing moderately. Very pretty. Looks like maybe 3-4 inches.

 

I am curious how much they have in Christmas Valley, where we're staying tonight. They are over 1,000ft higher than here.

Does  Christmas Valley get upslope flow with East wind? IF so probably slightly more. If not probably less.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
937 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2014 /1037 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2014/

...COLDEST FOUR MONTH PERIOD ON RECORD IN CHICAGO...

CHICAGO:

THE IMPRESSIVE COLD THIS PAST WINTER CONTINUED DURING
MARCH...WITH A MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF ONLY 31.7 DEGREES
FOR THE MONTH. THIS RANKS AS THE 19TH COLDEST MARCH ON RECORD IN
CHICAGO. HOWEVER...OF EVEN MORE INTEREST IS THE FACT THAT WITH THE
ABNORMALLY COLD MARCH ACROSS THE AREA...THIS MADE THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE FOR THE DECEMBER THROUGH MARCH PERIOD IN CHICAGO 22.0
DEGREES...WHICH IS THE COLDEST SUCH PERIOD ON RECORD FOR CHICAGO
DATING BACK TO 1872!

HERE IS A LIST OF THIS YEARS DECEMBER THROUGH MARCH AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE RELATED TO THE OTHER COLDEST SUCH PERIODS ON RECORD
IN CHICAGO:

RANK AVERAGE YEAR
DEC-MAR TEMP
-----------------------------
1. 22.0 2013-14
2. 22.3 1903-04
3. 22.5 1977-78
22.5 1892-93
5. 22.7 1978-79

[Deweydog]

Sounds like that was a close call for Mark Nelsen...

[Timmy Supercell]

Too warm for sticking snow down here today. Doubt moisture lasts into the night.

 

43 / 21 today. Getting partly sunny right now, earlier I saw popcorn like small cumulus clouds to my south/southeast. Looks like the ones in the Rogue Valley have been trying to do something (weak boomers later?).

[Timmy]

Sounds like that was a close call for Mark Nelsen...

I don't think he would joke about that, but isn't it kind of odd he posted it on April fools. I don't know what he could gain from

It, it sounds like something no one should joke about, especially on a professional's blog...

I guess I just talked myself out of the possibility it is a joke.

[TT-SEA]

Sounds like that was a close call for Mark Nelsen...

 

Scary stuff.   Amazing how fast things can go really bad with kids.

[Deweydog]

I don't think he would joke about that, but isn't it kind of odd he posted it on April fools. I don't know what he could gain from

It, it sounds like something no one should joke about, especially on a professional's blog...

I guess I just talked myself out of the possibility it is a joke.

 

Yeah... no.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Good lord, glad she is okay.

[Timmy Supercell]

He mentioned about that on Facebook a few days ago, sad that it happened on a vacation (of all times?)

 

Yeah no way in any sane individuals mind is that a joke, just because this is April 1st...

[brody]

Pretty good isolated T-storm between Elam and Shelton 

[Timmy Supercell]

Rain moving in 2 directions in SW Oregon. Cells in Klamath County moving eastward, and cells in Rogue Valley moving westward. Interesting on radar!

[TT-SEA]

Glad we scored these two beautiful days up here.    A very nice break.

 

High clouds roll in tonight so tomorrow will be more cloudy and then rain by Thursday and through the weekend.

 

For Portland... there was really no break.     A couple nice days makes a world of difference.    

[ClarkCountyChill]

Wow, sounds like a close call for Mark's daughter. Very glad to hear she's ok.

[ClarkCountyChill]

At our motel in Christmas Valley now. It is currently 31F with moderate snow. Maybe 2-3 inches on the ground.

 

Weather is supposed to clear up tonight into tomorrow. Should be perfect for some hiking and exploring.

[ClarkCountyChill]

Probably a lot more spread than Tim would like to see on the ensemble charts. Mean peaks at only +7c for PDX on the 18Z ensembles. I can see from the 00Z EURO spaghetti charts that Mark posted that the mean was also a good deal cooler than the operational, with a lot of spread among individual members.

 

I haven't seen the spaghetti charts for the 12Z EURO yet but I can tell from the mean that there is a lot of disagreement as well.

[TT-SEA]

Probably a lot more spread than Tim would like to see on the ensemble charts. Mean peaks at only +7c for PDX on the 18Z ensembles. I can see from the 00Z EURO spaghetti charts that Mark posted that the mean was also a good deal cooler than the operational, with a lot of spread among individual members.

 

I haven't seen the spaghetti charts for the 12Z EURO yet but I can tell from the mean that there is a lot of disagreement as well.

 

 

Maybe it will rain all week instead.

 

Seems like it might be an all or nothing situation.    Be careful what you wish for... 70/40 and sunny would be immensely nicer than 55/51 and raining.

[ClarkCountyChill]

Maybe it will rain all week instead.

 

Seems like it might be an all or nothing situation.    Be careful what you wish for... 70/40 and sunny would be immensely nicer than 55/51 and raining.

 

70/40 is a lot closer to what the GFS is showing. EURO has PDX getting near 80 at face value.

 

I feel fairly confident there will be a few nice days early next week. Definitely the first 70+ of the season for many locations in NW Oregon/SW Washington. 

[snow_wizard]

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL

937 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2014 /1037 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2014/

 

...COLDEST FOUR MONTH PERIOD ON RECORD IN CHICAGO...

 

CHICAGO:

 

THE IMPRESSIVE COLD THIS PAST WINTER CONTINUED DURING

MARCH...WITH A MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF ONLY 31.7 DEGREES

FOR THE MONTH. THIS RANKS AS THE 19TH COLDEST MARCH ON RECORD IN

CHICAGO. HOWEVER...OF EVEN MORE INTEREST IS THE FACT THAT WITH THE

ABNORMALLY COLD MARCH ACROSS THE AREA...THIS MADE THE AVERAGE

TEMPERATURE FOR THE DECEMBER THROUGH MARCH PERIOD IN CHICAGO 22.0

DEGREES...WHICH IS THE COLDEST SUCH PERIOD ON RECORD FOR CHICAGO

DATING BACK TO 1872!

 

HERE IS A LIST OF THIS YEARS DECEMBER THROUGH MARCH AVERAGE

TEMPERATURE RELATED TO THE OTHER COLDEST SUCH PERIODS ON RECORD

IN CHICAGO:

 

RANK AVERAGE YEAR

DEC-MAR TEMP

-----------------------------

1. 22.0 2013-14

2. 22.3 1903-04

3. 22.5 1977-78

22.5 1892-93

5. 22.7 1978-79

Nice to know things like this are still possible. Maybe it will be us one of these years.

[snow_wizard]

I see somebody rated this topic one star. Is the month going to be THAT bad?

[BLI snowman]

We're really overdue for a significant April heat event (85+ in Portland, 80+ in Seattle). They used to happen more. I'm hoping this will be the year.

[TT-SEA]

Wow... Winter Storm Watch for a big chunk of Minnesota and Wisconsin for Thursday into Friday.   Maybe 10-14 inches of snow.

 

My family and friends on facebook are just exhausted with this crap... and they had the same thing last spring.