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11/25 - 11/27 CO/LOW Central Plains Snow and LES


Clinton

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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

0z NAM is wetter and a nice snow for the KC area.

image.thumb.png.4782275a5d866e0386c8033a1ce2b5bb.png

Looks like WWA's just N of yby??

Edit- a few counties north

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Have to admit that 0z NAM 12km run is sexy for The Mitt. 

NAM 12km SLR thru Tues 7 am

image.png.f6597e163a386fa7e51f0869c1579ba2.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

0z NAM is wetter and a nice snow for the KC area.

image.thumb.png.4782275a5d866e0386c8033a1ce2b5bb.png

Are you a subscriber to Pivotal? I run into a pay wall that prohibits zoom-ins closer than N America. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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14 hours ago, mlgamer said:

Looks like our local mets have decided on 3-5" for MBY. Don't have the numbers handy, but I believe it was 2018 that we last had a November snowfall over 1". Now all it has to do is actually snow...lol.

Whippin' out your KC Magnet early!  Good luck to you and the KC crew and I hope @Clinton can score a whitened landscape!

 

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Just now, Tom said:

Whippin' out your KC Magnet early!  Good luck to you and the KC crew and I hope @Clinton can score a whitened landscape!

 

I believe @mlgamerjust got upgraded to a Warning level snow.  Hi-Res models have jogged north this morning while the GFS was mostly unchanged for mby.  3km NAM seems to reflect the forecast well atm.

snku_acc-imp.us_mw.png

 

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19 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Currently 23 degrees with clouds moving in and a light NE breeze.  Forecast high is 44 I bet it doesn't even come close to that.  hummm

DTX was saying that there is a window when milder air can surge north ahead of the re-enforcing colder air, but that 44F seems quite high for you. Be interesting to see how it goes as it may help understand my future up here riding that line. Apparently the latest NAM runs have boosted their confidence. They didn't lower the temps, but have lost the mixy look even for the airport. I've seen this before tho - they could still bring back the mixy look. But for now:

image.png.e0c0f6ac97e7d9c40dafbd3c6875a9b1.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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4 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

DTX was saying that there is a window when milder air can surge north ahead of the re-enforcing colder air, but that 44F seems quite high for you. Be interesting to see how it goes as it may help understand my future up here riding that line. Apparently the latest NAM runs have boosted their confidence. They didn't lower the temps, but have lost the mixy look even for the airport. I've seen this before tho - they could still bring back the mixy look. But for now:

image.png.e0c0f6ac97e7d9c40dafbd3c6875a9b1.png

TV Mets here are already questioning their high temps and talking about how the snow could accumulate faster than models show.

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NWS Sioux Falls morning AFD. 

Lets go NAM!!

TODAY: As of 3 AM, area webcams and surface observations show light to moderate snow falling from near and southwest of a line from Iroquois, Parker, and Beresford SD to Sioux City IA. More aggressive saturation has occurred in the lower levels than soundings previously indicated, favoring NAM/RAP guidance over HRRR/GFS. Have expanded and increased snow chances and totals for this morning, when the bulk of the snow and travel impacts are expected. Increased snow amounts/QPF from original WPC starting point with a CONSAll/HREF blend to line up better with most deterministic and HREF guidance and recent trends. This has increased snow totals to 1 to 2 inches across an area near and south of a Yankton and Beresford SD to Sioux Center and Spencer line. Areas near the Highway 20 corridor may see isolated 2 to 3 inch amounts due to modest mid level frontal lift.
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EAX AFD:

.Discussion...
Issued at 401 AM CST SAT NOV 25 2023

Key Messages:

- The first snowfall of the season is expected this afternoon into
  early Sunday morning.

- Winter Weather Advisory in effect from noon today through 6 AM
  Sunday. Expect hazardous travel conditions.

- Generally 1" to 4" of snow is expected for most of the area
  (less than an inch toward the Ozark Plateau).

Discussion:

Chilly but tranquil conditions are in place across the region this
early morning with temperatures in the 20s and light winds. A
closed low currently centered over the Utah/Colorado border
continues to move eastward. This closed low will become an open
wave as it moves east of the Rockies into the High Plains later
this afternoon. Low level clouds will move in from the west by
late morning/early afternoon, with dewpoints rising from the teens
at the current moment into the upper 20s to even low 30s by
tonight as the low levels moisten up out ahead of the approaching
trough. Snow will develop over the OK Panhandle and into southern
Kansas later this morning, with this approaching the region from
the WSW by early afternoon. Light snow aloft will likely
evaporate before reaching the surface in the early to mid
afternoon hours, but this will help moisten the low levels as well
as cool surface temperatures thanks to evaporative cooling.

Finally, with cooler surface temperatures and humidity, light
snow should begin reaching the surface by mid afternoon over ENE
Kansas before spreading further east into western and NW MO.
Surface temperatures for much of the KC Metro (especially SE
portions of the metro) should stay above freezing through the
afternoon hours before falling to freezing or just below in the 6
to 8 pm window. How quickly surface temperatures cool and low
levels moisten will have an impact on total snow accumulations.
Prime time for accumulating light snow looks to be between around
5 pm this afternoon and 3 am Sunday morning. Total accumulations
have increased a bit from the previous forecast package, with the
current grids showing generally 1 to 4 inches for most of the
winter weather advisory area, with a trace to one inch south
southeast of the advisory area. Model soundings and cross sections
depict the possibility of some conditional symmetric instability
(CSI) coincident with some frontogenesis/deformation zone overlap,
suggesting that some mesoscale banding could set up from eastern
Kansas into northern Missouri tonight into early Sunday morning,
allowing for locally higher snow totals. Probability matched means
from the 00z HREF suggest 2 to 4 inches for Kansas City to
Moberly and points north. The probability of 1" or more of snow at
Downtown KC airport is 81%, with a 39% probability of 2" or more
and 0% probability for 4" or more. The locations with the best
chance of receiving over 4" of snow look to be Atchison and
northwest Leavenworth Counties in Kansas. Given near to slightly
above freezing temperatures this afternoon, roadways should just
be wet at first unless snowfall rates are high enough to overcome
that. However, once temperatures fall to below freezing this
evening with snowfall rates increasing a bit, road conditions are
expected to deteriorate.
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48 minutes ago, Tom said:

Whippin' out your KC Magnet early!  Good luck to you and the KC crew and I hope @Clinton can score a whitened landscape!

 

 

42 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I believe @mlgamerjust got upgraded to a Warning level snow.  Hi-Res models have jogged north this morning while the GFS was mostly unchanged for mby.  3km NAM seems to reflect the forecast well atm.

 

 

The forecast heavy snow track across southwest, south central into northeast KS is pretty much the "classic" heavy snow track that was common in the 1970s - 1980s but has been fairly rare since then. In fact, Feb 4, 2014 and the Dec 2009 Christmas Blizzard are the only systems I can remember off the top of my head that had similar heavy snow tracks for many years now. Happening in November makes this even more unique.

Of course it still has to snow first to make this anything real...lol. Looks like @Jayhawker85 picked the wrong time to leave town but I'm sure he's having fun...lol. I'll post pics later if it pans put. Good luck to @Clinton and others downstream to get into the action!

Screenshot2023-11-25at07-29-49WPCProbabilisticWinterPrecipitationGuidance.png.36b6109b55312d37b3c20d0a4499644a.png

  • Snow 2

23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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31 minutes ago, Clinton said:

TV Mets here are already questioning their high temps and talking about how the snow could accumulate faster than models show.

I hope they're correct. Read the AFD and lol, it was opposite the grid changes mentioned the likelihood of mixing and how the warm temps will limit accumulations to grass, etc. Typical holiday crew inconsistency.

  • Facepalm 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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@CentralNebWeather congrats on a nice 1st snow of the season.

I am heading to Gaylord area Monday morning and it looks like I will run into true winter conditions per APX's messaging. This is on top of the 2-4" inches they are predicting for Saturday night/Sunday. ❄️☃️

image.png.6ebf0ad008319fdeeb6425f0eba85641.png

  • Snow 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Models this morning are trending north and wetter for my area.  The very dry and south Canadian has flipped to a few inches.  The HRRR/RAP are showing 2-3" now.  The NAMs are still good.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Even the UK, which has been showing nothing here for days, has suddenly upped us to over 2 inches tonight.

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  • bongocat-test 1

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The 12z Euro is also wetter and north, so it's a trend across all models.  It's still not a huge deal, but a couple inches would be nice.

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  • Snow 2

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Des Moines NWS has noticed the north trend and has issued an advisory up to Des Moines.  I suspect DVN will do something similar.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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27 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Des Moines NWS has noticed the north trend and has issued an advisory up to Des Moines.  I suspect DVN will do something similar.

Yep- first Advisory of the year is nice. Expecting 2-3" here just W of KDSM. Latest  RAP- snku_acc-imp.us_mw.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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18z HRRR...  The snow should easily accumulate thanks to the cold surface and overnight timing.  Even this morning's very light snow immediately stuck to the pavement until the sun rose a bit.

As expected, DVN just expanded the advisory up through Cedar Rapids.

image.thumb.png.f7da4340f6a1984c32e870da1d39fcdb.png

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  • Snow 1

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Oddly, the 18z NAM/3kNAM have dried out (usually the 18z run is juicy), but the RAP continues to get wetter.  The 20z run has Cedar Rapids up to 4+ inches.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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26 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Oddly, the 18z NAM/3kNAM have dried out (usually the 18z run is juicy), but the RAP continues to get wetter.  The 20z run has Cedar Rapids up to 4+ inches.

Sweet. Gonna be fun to wake up to snow flying tomorrow. Can’t wait. Hopefully we get some flakes tonight before it’s too late as well. 

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9 hours ago, Clinton said:

Currently 23 degrees with clouds moving in and a light NE breeze.  Forecast high is 44 I bet it doesn't even come close to that.  hummm

Verdict??

 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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What benefits Iowa will have the opposite effect here...and, we're back to a mixy nothingburger per DTX. Less surprising than this morning's head-fake icons tbh. As posted prior, Thanksgiving time snow climo is extremely low for Detroit. Still, gladly take mood flakes - better than nothing. 

Now I turn my eyes to the Northland where winter rarely disappoints and this event is looking better with every cycle:

APX Snippits

Quote
The result will be a brief but intense episode of lake effect snows,
which locally may eclipse 1"/hr rates Sunday night and into Monday
morning. This in particular favors spots downwind of Grand Traverse
Bay and into the Big Five of Charlevoix, Otsego, Crawford, Kalkaska,
and Antrim counties... with impacts to be had on the US 131 corridor
from Petoskey to Kalkaska and I-75 from Indian River to Grayling.
These particular spots are the most likely to see an additional 3-6"
Monday night, with some localized 8"+ not out of the question.
a generalized additional 3-6"+ of accumulation seems likely 
Monday night into Tuesday across the dominant snowbelts.... 
which in turn tells me that it is not entirely impossible for
some snowbelt areas of NW lower to see upwards of 18"+ of total
accumulation in the Sunday to Tuesday timeframe.

image.png.21bc1939d3162d8ecc5787a9ede23fa3.png

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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1 minute ago, Stacsh said:

WWA for 2” of snow maybe over 24 hr period.   Classic first light snow of the year over reaction.  It’s West  Michigan.    
 

Go Blue!   Hail!  

So apparently I have 2 accounts and never realized it. Lol  One on my phone.   Stacsh .  And tStacsh on my computer at work.   How did I never notice?   I’ll have to decide on one of I can remember the login.  

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17 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

So apparently I have 2 accounts and never realized it. Lol  One on my phone.   Stacsh .  And tStacsh on my computer at work.   How did I never notice?   I’ll have to decide on one of I can remember the login.  

LOL - I figured that was by design. Seemed like tStasch was Stacsh's alter-ego at times. 

  • lol 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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44 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

WWA for 2” of snow maybe over 24 hr period.   Classic first light snow of the year over reaction.  It’s West  Michigan.    
 

Go Blue!   Hail!  

They are doing the same thing for me in SE Wisconsin. But they don't have the guts to say a minimum amount of snow, only "up to 3 inches" I guess that's one way to cover your butt if you bust a forecast. This is bringing in some really good snowmaking weather so even if I get skunked I'm gonna be happy wednesday.

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