December 2023 Weather in the PNW

[the_convergence_zone]

Today was lovely, went to the farmers market, took my kid to the playground, and got some gardening done. High of 54. It felt like Seattle was emerging from hibernation. 

[snow_wizard]

Good to see the ECMWF remained consistent on the timing of the 10MB zonal wind crash.

If I'm reading this right any of the ensemble members below the bottom red line would make it the lowest on record for that period of time.  This will cause a shakeup.  The question is what will that look like.

[RentonHill]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Good to see the ECMWF remained consistent on the timing of the 10MB zonal wind crash.

If I'm reading this right any of the ensemble members below the bottom red line would make it the lowest on record for that period of time.  This will cause a shakeup.  The question is what will that look like.

Red line is just lower bound for normal I think. Not a record 

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Today was lovely, went to the farmers market, took my kid to the playground, and got some gardening done. High of 54. It felt like Seattle was emerging from hibernation. 

Just glad it's not soaking wet today.

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Good to see the ECMWF remained consistent on the timing of the 10MB zonal wind crash.

If I'm reading this right any of the ensemble members below the bottom red line would make it the lowest on record for that period of time.  This will cause a shakeup.  The question is what will that look like.

Looks like record min varies from -10 to -30 after the new year

[snow_wizard]

Just now, RentonHill said:

Red line is just lower bound for normal I think. Not a record 

That could be.  It's frustrating there is no legend with this.

I'm sure that bottom heavier blue line is either the marker for 10th or 20th percentile of the run.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

Looks like record min varies from -10 to -30 after the new year

Thanks for posting this!

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Easy to forget now but parts of Western WA also had a pretty epic snow drought between January 2012 and February 2019. Places like Port Angeles had maybe 10-12" total in that 7 year stretch. 

Similar totals here at my house during that stretch. Really challenged my love for weather at times, especially with the countless busts during that time.

[LowerGarfield]

5 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow. Make the desert bloom!

Yessir. We're semi arid but to the west the precipitation drops off quite a bit once you get closer to the Tri Cities. I'm always right on the edge between precip/snow and nothing at all.

[snow_wizard]

13 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

9.40" for me for December.  Been 13 years today since I got my station up and running in Battle Ground.

www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=E2837&table=1&banner=off

That's pretty ridiculous.  I thought my 6.46" was impressive!

[the_convergence_zone]

Looks cold in a sliver of western Alaska. And part of the big island! 

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Easy to forget now but parts of Western WA also had a pretty epic snow drought between January 2012 and February 2019. Places like Port Angeles had maybe 10-12" total in that 7 year stretch. 

There was quite a bit of cold in that period though.  We had decent snow in the winter of 2017-18 here including the white Christmas.  Ended up with about 12 inches that winter

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Looks cold in a sliver of western Alaska. And part of the big island! 

The hammer will drop for somebody this winter.  We'll have to wait and see who.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just set up some more Christmas lights in the pouring rain. 50F so not that cold. Was wearing a t-shirt and shorts and am soaking wet. My wife told me I was crazy but it’s warm so I don’t give a shitt. This climate fuckking sucks.

[snow_wizard]

It needs to be pointed out inversions are a delicate thing and just slight changes form the what the models are advertising could bring a good round of fake cold to the NW over the next couple of weeks.  Most model runs indicate inversions try to get going from time to time as it is.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Just set up some more Christmas lights in the pouring rain. 50F so not that cold. Was wearing a t-shirt and shorts and am soaking wet. My wife told me I was crazy but it’s warm so I don’t give a shitt. This climate fuckking sucks.

I hate working out in the rain, but sometimes you just have to.  It's actually pretty pleasant here today.  Yes...this climate sucks arse.

[SnowWillarrive]

18 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Looks cold in a sliver of western Alaska. And part of the big island! 

I guess it’s comforting that the entire continent is torching. 

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

I guess it’s comforting that the entire continent is torching. 

I'm actually at the point with climate change where seeing cold anomalies anywhere is seriously encouraging. If it can't be here then I can at least live vicariously through someplace else, as real winter increasingly becomes a relic.

[MossMan]

Still drizzling. 
.24” on the day. 

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

Unpopular opinion incoming but I'm rooting for whatever weather will lessen wildfires. Even if it means little snow in the lowlands. Those fires in Canada last year were pretty devastating. I'll sacrifice a few years of lowland snow for mountain snow and historic average precip in the wild to keep things more balanced. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I've felt the GFS runs today were a little better than yesterday...

[Meatyorologist]

16 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

Unpopular opinion incoming but I'm rooting for whatever weather will lessen wildfires. Even if it means little snow in the lowlands. Those fires in Canada last year were pretty devastating. I'll sacrifice a few years of lowland snow for mountain snow and historic average precip in the wild to keep things more balanced. 

idk, i feel like raising the temperature and improving conditions for vegetative undergrowth would make next year's fire situation a living hell

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

idk, i feel like raising the temperature and improving conditions for vegetative undergrowth would make next year's fire situation a living hell

Only a matter of time before our city is destroyed. Oregon will start to lose its grass crop and all hope will be lost.

[Deweydog]

Only a sudden and violent warming of the stratosphere can save us now.

ironee.

[Anti Marine Layer]

16 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Only a sudden and violent warming of the stratosphere can save us now.

ironee.

Cow farts

[snow_wizard]

56 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

Unpopular opinion incoming but I'm rooting for whatever weather will lessen wildfires. Even if it means little snow in the lowlands. Those fires in Canada last year were pretty devastating. I'll sacrifice a few years of lowland snow for mountain snow and historic average precip in the wild to keep things more balanced. 

Warm rain is just worthless though.  Bad for the mountains.  Might as well have fake cold over that.

[snow_wizard]

27 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Only a sudden and violent warming of the stratosphere can save us now.

ironee.

Or a strong MJO wave.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

I'm actually at the point with climate change where seeing cold anomalies anywhere is seriously encouraging. If it can't be here then I can at least live vicariously through someplace else, as real winter increasingly becomes a relic.

Asia is hogging all of the cold so far this season.  Good chance that will change at some point.

[Meatyorologist]

...December?

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

...December?

Best we can hope for is fake cold...at least for now.

[Deweydog]

12 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

...December?

Yes

[Cold Snap]

0.22” of rain for the day so far. Up to 6.10” for the month.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

45 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Warm rain is just worthless though.  Bad for the mountains.  Might as well have fake cold over that.

Yeah, I don't want warm rain. At this point I'm rooting for cool rain in the lowlands and lots of snow in the mountains this winter. And then a cool spring with a medium amount of rain. Not too much to promote crazy growth. Highs in thr low 40s and lows in the mid 30s would be great over torching. 

 

It's awful that models have anomalies looking like the heat dome over almost the whole continent. It's one thing when we've got a ridge but the Midwest or East coast has a trough. Or when Canada is in the freezer. This pattern is garbage for almost everyone.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

48 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

...December?

Fallspring. We only have 2 seasons in Springfield. Inferno is the other one.

[Deweydog]

HEAVY DRIZZLE

[Meatyorologist]

42 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Yes

Found it

[Meatyorologist]

5 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

HEAVY DRIZZLE

Some reports out of Troutdale noting the pavement is beginning to crack under the stress

[TT-SEA]

2 hours ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

Unpopular opinion incoming but I'm rooting for whatever weather will lessen wildfires. Even if it means little snow in the lowlands. Those fires in Canada last year were pretty devastating. I'll sacrifice a few years of lowland snow for mountain snow and historic average precip in the wild to keep things more balanced. 

Rain at this time of year does literally nothing to change the fire situation next summer.  For better or worse. 

[Doinko]

I know analogs don't mean too much, but here are the 8-14 day ones

1991-92, 1994-95, 1979-80, 2003-04, and 1998-1999 show up. All of those except for 1991/92 had some great events, even if some were overall torchy.

[CloudJunkie]

2 hours ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

Unpopular opinion incoming but I'm rooting for whatever weather will lessen wildfires. Even if it means little snow in the lowlands. Those fires in Canada last year were pretty devastating. I'll sacrifice a few years of lowland snow for mountain snow and historic average precip in the wild to keep things more balanced. 

I know what you mean. In the last five years we've had three towns burn to the ground: Paradise, CA; Detroit, OR; and Lytton, BC. Washington's luck can't hold out forever. Packwood in particular is a deathtrap, with forested neighborhoods only accessible by a single bridge over the Cowlitz River.