December 2023 Weather in the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Contrary to popular belief, El Niño cools the system while La Niña warms it.

The atmosphere “cools” during La Niña because more heat is being absorbed into the oceans/IPWP, while the atmosphere “warms” during El Niño because heat is being released from the oceans/IPWP.

But in the long run, more frequent La Niña will produce warming via heat uptake. This is why 3+ year niñas like 1998-2001 and 2020-23 were followed by global temperature spikes, as some that stored heat (mostly in the IPWP) is released back into the atmosphere. Also why this year is so extreme w/rt global temps, because we’re going straight from 3+ year La Niña to a strong El Niño, which has not happened since at least the mid/late 19th century.

It’s also why the Medieval Warm Period was La Niña dominated, and why the Little Ice Age was El Niño dominated.

You can also see this tendency in OLWR measurements from CERES, where El Niño years emit more radiation to space, while outgoing radiation is reduced during El Niño years.

Your little theory isn’t working out well. 

[Phil]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Your little theory isn’t working out well. 

Yes it is. Perfectly so. Read the post more carefully.

The globe is in a nuclear blowtorch now because El Niño is releasing 3+ years of stored heat from La Niña. Same thing happened to some extent after the 1998/99 2000-01 La Niña (tho that transition occurred over 2 years so it wasn’t as sharp).

[Phil]

Another example is the super niña from 1973/74 to 1975/76. Big global temp spike and pacific climate shift occurred after it ended (and that was without a big niño).

Big, multiyear niñas store a *lot* of heat into the IPWP (and IO via Indonesian throughflow during west based events).

If we do enter another big La Niña in 2024…major ouch. Globe will stay nuclear hot (will be another step change, like after 1998 and 2016).

[Front Ranger]

36 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

 

https://www.denver7.com/news/local-news/colorado-and-denver-metro-snow-totals-for-dec-23-24-2023-snowstorm

Colorado was blessed this year.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Another example is the super niña from 1973/74 to 1975/76. Big global temp spike and pacific climate shift occurred after it ended (and that was without a big niño).

Big, multiyear niñas store a *lot* of heat into the IPWP (and IO via Indonesian throughflow during west based events).

If we do enter another big La Niña in 2024…major ouch. Globe will stay nuclear hot (will be another step change, like after 1998 and 2016).

Well if it snows here I don’t care. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Another brutal GFS run. It’s not happening. 

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Well if it snows here I don’t care. 

Can’t snow if it’s too warm.  

Actually…thermally, your climate is already “borderline” compared to the majority of the US. You guys you would likely be the first to bite the dust. And I’d probably join you very soon after.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Apparently Jesse wants more Ninos. Merry Christmas ya filthy animal. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Can’t snow if it’s too warm.  

Thermally, your climate is already “borderline” compared to the majority of the US, so you guys would likely be the first to bite the dust.

That ship has already sailed. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

14 minutes ago, Phil said:

Another example is the super niña from 1973/74 to 1975/76. Big global temp spike and pacific climate shift occurred after it ended (and that was without a big niño).

Big, multiyear niñas store a *lot* of heat into the IPWP (and IO via Indonesian throughflow during west based events).

If we do enter another big La Niña in 2024…major ouch. Globe will stay nuclear hot (will be another step change, like after 1998 and 2016).

Please give a reference to your full list of acronyms.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, Slushy Inch said:

Mountain snow pattern at least a good bet. Not like we can expect something big anyways. When can start attempting global cooling?

Sounds like the recipe for some RUINED backpacking trips to me. Everyone knows no one in the PNW even went outside for extended periods until after the 1976-77 PDO flip.

Edited December 25, 2023 by Cascadia_Wx

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Apparently Jesse wants more Ninos. Merry Christmas ya filthy animal. 

Frequent El Niños in the 13th & 14th centuries culminated in the LIA. So, heck yeah I want more niños.

We wouldn’t get to experience the greatest benefits in our lifetimes (takes many decades to centuries to really swing the energy budget except in extreme cases) but at least future generations might still get to enjoy winters.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Apparently Jesse wants more Ninos. Merry Christmas ya filthy animal. 

I don’t even know what I want anymore, Andrew.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Phil said:

Frequent El Niños in the 13th & 14th centuries culminated in the LIA. So, heck yeah I want more niños.

We wouldn’t get to experience the greatest benefits in our lifetimes (takes many decades to centuries to really drain the energy budget except in extreme cases) but at least future generations might still get to enjoy winters.  

A supervolcano going off sounds much more efficient. Off topic but what would that do to ENSO?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I don’t even know what I want anymore, Andrew.

I just know this is the worst Christmas since 2018.

[Phil]

I’ll leave this here Medieval Warm Period & Western Megadrought centered between 1000-1250AD. Little Ice Age roughly 1450AD to 1850AD (modern records start at the end of the LIA).

Image #1: PDO reconstruction 1000AD to present.

Image #2: ENSO reconstruction 1000AD to present.

[Deweydog]

Merry Christmas, everybuddy!

Hope Santa brought you all the PV splits your hearts desire and a 2024 full of less in the way of human tragedy!

[Phil]

11 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

A supervolcano going off sounds much more efficient. Off topic but what would that do to ENSO?

I agree. Need a Yellowstone super eruption ASAP. It would be for the greater good.

[MossMan]

The Christmas Rain has commenced! 

[Anti Marine Layer]

17 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I don’t even know what I want anymore, Andrew.

365 straight days of heavy rain. The gift that keeps on giving. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

I agree. Need a Yellowstone super eruption ASAP. It would be for the greater good.

Would ENSO be a moot point after a big eruption? That was sort of a serious question. What was the ENSO state in 1815-16 in the wake of Tambora?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

On this date two years ago and six years ago.

 

 

[SnowWillarrive]

27 minutes ago, Phil said:

Can’t snow if it’s too warm.  

Actually…thermally, your climate is already “borderline” compared to the majority of the US. You guys you would likely be the first to bite the dust. And I’d probably join you very soon after.

It hasn’t snowed much at all on the I-95 corridor in 2 years. Nearly 110 million people live there.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Would ENSO be a moot point after a big eruption? That was sort of a serious question. What was the ENSO state in 1815-16 in the wake of Tambora?

Most of the literature suggests a +ENSO response to a significant eruption but that would depend on the location+time of year. And a Tonga situation (largely a water vapor injection) is unexplored territory.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, SnowWillarrive said:

It hasn’t snowed much at all on the I-95 corridor in 2 years. Nearly 110 million people live there.

I think that is phlaying a big phart in Phil’s  disphosition lately.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Most of the literature suggests a +ENSO response to a significant eruption but that would depend on the location+time of year. And a Tonga situation (largely a water vapor injection) is unexplored territory.

It sure is a kick in the pants that the biggest eruption since Pinatubo had to get screwed up by all that water vapor. A sure sign that evil has won in this world if there ever was one.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

It sure is a kick in the pants that the biggest eruption since Pinatubo had to get screwed up by all that water vapor. A sure sign that evil has won in this world if there ever was one.

At least the west had a huge winter last year. Even if we pay for it now. 

[MossMan]

And the snow was just ramping up around this time 2yrs ago. That was such a wonderful time between Christmas and New Years. 

[skywatcher]

15 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The Christmas Rain has commenced! 

Let it rain! Let it rain! Let it rain!

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

At least my location had a huge winter last year. Even if we pay for it now. 

Tru dat homes

[Phil]

Just now, SnowWillarrive said:

It hasn’t snowed much at all on the I-95 corridor in 2 years. Nearly 110 million people live there.

We’re used to multiyear snow droughts down here. NYC/New England people are having a muuuuuch harder time.

Difference here vs PNW is we’re less reliant on anomalous cold temperatures (tho obv still matters to some degree). But the failure in 2022/23 came down to an awful storm track with no STJ whatsoever, every fukkin cyclone tracked into the Midwest leaving us in the warm sector. We were lucky to get 0.5”.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Obviously arctic blasts are a thing of the past. FULL STOP 

[Phil]

17 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I think that is phlaying a big phart in Phil’s  disphosition lately.

I suppose it’s possible I’m projecting my own pessimism.  

Or…maybe the pattern is actually really terrible for that part of the continent, and I’m just calling it as it is?

Hard to tell. But we’ll find out when it’s all said and done.

[Phil]

18 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

It sure is a kick in the pants that the biggest eruption since Pinatubo had to get screwed up by all that water vapor. A sure sign that evil has won in this world if there ever was one.

I’ve been thinking the same. Waste of a VEI6.

But statistically speaking, Yellowstone is due for the BIG ONE. Hopefully it happens soon.

[Front Ranger]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Obviously arctic blasts are a thing of the past. FULL STOP 

They've just been favoring the middle of the country over the coasts lately. For whatever reason. 

And yes...I know it gets colder in the middle of the country. But on a relative basis, my statement still stands.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

52 minutes ago, Phil said:

Can’t snow if it’s too warm.  

Actually…thermally, your climate is already “borderline” compared to the majority of the US. You guys you would likely be the first to bite the dust. And I’d probably join you very soon after.

So things pretty much stay the same here for Christmas? We’re up to 51F so at least we’re cooler than the 65F we had last year.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

I suppose it’s possible I’m projecting my own pessimism.  

Or…maybe the pattern is actually really terrible for that part of the continent, and I’m just calling it as it is?

Hard to tell. But we’ll find out when it’s all said and done.

The term is despaircasting. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Phil said:

I’ve been thinking the same. Waste of a VEI6.

But statistically speaking, Yellowstone is due for the big boom. Hopefully it happens soon.

A Tambora or Krakatoa repeat would really hit the spot for me. Not looking for a mass extinction event (any worse that the nice weather fueled one going on currently at least) but a brief excursion back to a couple 1950s-70s style summers/winters around here would be fun.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

So things pretty much stay the same here for Christmas? We’re up to 51F so at least we’re cooler than the 65F we had last year.

Let’s not talk about Christmas 2021 down there right?

[MossMan]

Looks like Leavenworth got a fresh dusting.