December 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Slushy Inch]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

GEFS meteogram has no value with its coarse resolution missing terrain and its inferior boundary layer physics.

EPS much better.

Both colder in all respects 

[snow_wizard]

0.81" of rain IMBY in the last two weeks.  Really dry since the early month downpour.

[Phil]

Combination of in-situ W-Canada torch and transient nature of the pattern stacks odds against a significant lowland event even if the pattern verifies as modeled (which is certainly not a given in of itself).

Given westerly momentum deposition in the subtropics, it will be very easy for any GOA block to pinch off well before any worthwhile airmass establishes in W-Canada (will take time to scour out the mega-torch) let alone getting a cold airmass to advect southward.

I want to ride the party train instead of being the most hated individual on the forum but f***ing hell, man, I still don’t see it. So many failure modes.

[ShawniganLake]

Just saw the final tally for the Canadian wildfire season.  45,590,000 acres burned.  

[ShawniganLake]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Combination of in-situ W-Canada torch and transient nature of the pattern stacks odds against a significant lowland event even if the pattern verifies as modeled (which is certainly not a given in of itself).

Given westerly momentum deposition in the subtropics, it will be very easy for any GOA block to pinch off well before any worthwhile airmass establishes in W-Canada (will take time to scour out the mega-torch) let alone getting a cold airmass to advect southward.

I want to ride the party train instead of being the most hated individual on the forum, but f***ing hell, man, I still don’t see it. Sooooo many failure modes.

Don’t really need an arctic blast to get a decent snowstorm this time of year.  A little continental influence with offshore flow and a system undercutting a pinched off block would probably do the trick for someone. 

[MossMan]

11 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Don’t really need an arctic blast to get a decent snowstorm this time of year.  A little continental influence with offshore flow and a system undercutting a pinched off block would probably do the trick for someone. 

Phil doesn’t understand Pacific Northwest weather. 

[Slushy Inch]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Combination of in-situ W-Canada torch and transient nature of the pattern stacks odds against a significant lowland event even if the pattern verifies as modeled (which is certainly not a given in of itself).

Given westerly momentum deposition in the subtropics, it will be very easy for any GOA block to pinch off well before any worthwhile airmass establishes in W-Canada (will take time to scour out the mega-torch) let alone getting a cold airmass to advect southward.

I want to ride the party train instead of being the most hated individual on the forum but f***ing hell, man, I still don’t see it. So many failure modes.

Cope, it’s coming.

[ShawniganLake]

9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Phil doesn’t understand Pacific Northwest weather. 

Haha. Sounds like he’s over thinking it a bit now.  It’s not that hard to get a few days of wintery weather here.  Even in a Nino. 

[Slushy Inch]

Extended EPS. 

[AlTahoe]

2 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

I hope you're right...need a lot more Tahoe snow by mid January!

This is my first non white Christmas ever in Tahoe. Moved here in 2010 

[RentonHill]

8 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Haha. Sounds like he’s over thinking it a bit now.  It’s not that hard to get a few days of wintery weather here.  Even in a Nino. 

I'd rather have a major storm/overrunning event where the snow only lasts a day than last year's 30 days of flurries but nothing significant stacked up. 

[MWG]

Low of 27F and currently 36F with light rain. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Snowing again and 35 degrees,  I'm impressed 

[Meatyorologist]

3 hours ago, Phil said:

I mean there were multiple dry streaks. Worst was in the 1990s and two chunks of the 2000s. But hard not to call this a hot streak.

PNW can do very well *without* a SSW during +QBO/Niña (and sometimes +QBO/neutral) due to the straight-arrow connection to the Aleutian ridge.

But strong El Niño and solar maximum are usually highly productive for the the NW Half of North America. The mature -QBO offers more subseasonal variability midwinter via MJO/MC connection, and in a winter like this, you do not need a SSW for subseasonal variability to overpower Niño/LP signal.

Without a major SSW, it'll be fine. No need to completely overwhelm what is a very weakly coupled base state..wouldn't take an extraordinarily high amplitude MJO/SS orbit. And that'll probably happen anyways.

Hard to overstate how guaranteed this is for you guys. Not impossible, but everything would have to go wrong to screw this one up. 

ftfy

[The Cats Meow]

Winter may come to the Central and Eastern parts of the US in January.

Will the PNW get clipped for a few days of winter fun?

Fingers crossed.

 

[TT-SEA]

Had a few random snowflakes here.   Sky is bright again now.     My sister and family in town from San Diego were pretty happy to see snowflakes on Christmas Eve.  But they have had many truly white Christmases at our house over the last 20 years.  

[Phil]

51 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

ftfy

On some other earth in another dimension this is true.  

[MossMan]

Memories! It was just beginning a few hours from now 2yrs ago. 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Phil doesn’t understand Pacific Northwest weather. 

1 hour ago, Slushy Inch said:

Cope, it’s coming.

1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

Haha. Sounds like he’s over thinking it a bit now.  It’s not that hard to get a few days of wintery weather here.  Even in a Nino. 

I’m fully prepared to be the forum’s punching bag for the next 2-3 months. But no worries, I still love you all the same.

[Slushy Inch]

Through back to last white Christmas, 2017. Don’t live there anymore.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Through back to last white Christmas, 2017.

Purrty.

Hasn’t snowed on Christmas Eve here since 2004 IIRC. Such a rarity, it’s a once or twice in a lifetime kind of thing. 

[Phil]

18z GFS pulls back on the SSW, no more quick wave-2/split.

Might just be a blip.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

White Christmas is saved in Leavenworth. Expecting 4-6" during the day and evening tomorrow.

Actually we've had close to normal snowfall for December as of the 24th.  Two storms over a foot each are what had made December snowfall close to normal, plus a couple of smaller storms and what's coming tomorrow will make it normal.

However, the warm temps have melted most of it, so it seems as if snowfall is below normal. Snowcover is for sure below normal though. Will be nice to see snowfall during Christmas day.  About the 3rd Christmas in a row with snow falling during the day.  Mostly in the afternoon, but it's still nice.

[HuskyMaestro]

Happy Christmas Eve folks! May we get a pepto Euro map for the whole PNW under our tree that verifies this winter!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

33rd year in a row without a white Christmas for EUG. Probly the most due location in the PNW at this point. Extremely depressing.

[MWG]

39F and light rain

[Slushy Inch]

8 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

33rd year in a row without a white Christmas for EUG. Probly the most due location in the PNW at this point. Extremely depressing.

33 that’s awful

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

33 that’s awful

Yup. 10 years since our last coupled Arctic airmass too. I’m going to assume it’s one of the longest stretches we’ve gone. Plus only 1 sub freezing high since Jan 2017.

The rapid warming trend here is alarming.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Yup. 10 years since our last coupled Arctic airmass too. I’m going to assume it’s one of the longest stretches we’ve gone. Plus only 1 sub freezing high since Jan 2017.

The rapid warming trend here is alarming.

That was the year you had a big snowstorm in Eugene right?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

That was the year you had a big snowstorm in Eugene right?

The biggest one here in my life was the 2-25-19 event. 20" in 72 hours. Actually got up to 34F on those days.

[Slushy Inch]

Tossing the druncle in the trash. 

[Meatyorologist]

For the record, Phil has given us full permission to unleash post react hell unto every negative thing he says.

I (and he) expect no less than TWENTY weiners per post. He still loves us after all, right?

[Slushy Inch]

GEFS actually turned out decent somehow.

[iFred]

12 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

For the record, Dr Phillip, PhD in Initialism Meteorology, has given us full permission to unleash post react hell unto every negative thing he says.

I (and he) expect no less than TWENTY weiners per post. He still loves us after all, right?

Fixed it.

[AbbyJr]

8 hours ago, Phil said:

I mean there were multiple dry streaks. Worst was in the 1990s and two chunks of the 2000s. But hard not to call this a hot streak.

PNW can do very will *without* a SSW during +QBO/Niña (and sometimes +QBO/neutral) due to the straight-arrow connection to the Aleutian ridge.

But strong El Niño and solar maximum are usually brutal for the the NW Half of North America. The mature -QBO offers more subseasonal variability midwinter via MJO/MC connection, but in a winter like this, you will need a SSW for subseasonal variability to overpower Niño/LP signal.

Without a major SSW, there’s no chance up there. Need to completely overwhelm what is a very well coupled base state..will take an extraordinarily high amplitude MJO/SS orbit. And that won’t happen without a SSW destabilizing the deep tropics in such a way that beefs of the MJO.

Hard to overstate how much of a challenge this will be. Not impossible, but everything has to go right. 

Both 1990/91 (neutral/+QBO) and 2008/09 (weak La Niña/+QBO) were epic winters in the PNW that produced without a SSW event. I should add that 2006/07 was also really good in the PNW and I don't think there was a SSW event. While it was an El Niño, it was a weak event so that probably helped. But it was also a +QBO, which is not ideal in an El Niño. So there must have been other factors that contributed to the El Niño acting more like a neutral/La Niña that winter.

[Cold Snap]

Ended up with a low of 27 this morning. Nice to see on Christmas Eve.

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like it might get pretty windy for northern and coastal areas tomorrow. Maybe a quick pressure rise tomorrow night with a westerly surge of wind down the strait. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Merry Christmas

12/24/23 7:16 pm

I want to wish everyone a very merry, safe, and blessed Christmas! If you are traveling to or from family or friends this today or tomorrow, please do so safely. Absolutely no drinking and driving! I'm serious. Don't make me come over there and put my Santa foot down! I'll do it! Okay then.

Merry Christmas!

[ShawniganLake]

Air pressure dropped below 960mb in Anchorage this morning.  

[Slushy Inch]

16 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Merry Christmas

12/24/23 7:16 pm

I want to wish everyone a very merry, safe, and blessed Christmas! If you are traveling to or from family or friends this today or tomorrow, please do so safely. Absolutely no drinking and driving! I'm serious. Don't make me come over there and put my Santa foot down! I'll do it! Okay then.

Merry Christmas!

Colder runs ahead?