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Christmas Blizzard 12/20 - 12/28


Tom

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NWS Hastings afternoon disco:

A cold front sweeps through the area Sunday morning, and as cold air arrives, this rain will gradually transition to snow from west to east Sunday into Sunday night. There is some uncertainty on timing of this changeover, with some guidance showing a more rapid transition occurring mostly during the day on Sunday. Fortunately, regardless of model solution, the probability for significant winter impacts on Sunday (Christmas Eve) is relatively low. The latest NBM shows only a 10 to 20% chance for even 1" of snow accumulation through Sunday night. The forecast for Monday (Christmas Day) and Tuesday is still rather uncertain. The upper low is expected to stall as it moves over the central Plains, but the specific timing and location varies widely from model run to model run. Unfortunately, this significantly reduces our confidence in expected snowfall. Some runs have several inches of snow on the backside of the low, while others keep it progressive and largely skip our area entirely. Looking at ensembles, the highest probabilities for 3" or more of snow is focused over northern Nebraska. Both the 12Z EPS and GEFS trended upwards slightly from the 00Z runs. The latest NBM has a 20 to 50 percent chance for 4" or more snowfall through Tuesday for much of our Nebraska counties, with decreasing probabilities as you move further south into Kansas. The other thing to mention with this system are the winds. While not overly strong, we could see gusts over 35 MPH Sunday into Monday, potentially leading to some blowing and drifting snow. Depending on model solution, some snow could linger into Wednesday. 

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59* tonight and fog forecast for “God’s Country” down south. 😆

Feels out of place, but I recall Christmas’s in cutoffs so no snow this year!

Merry Christmas fellow nerds. 🎄🤶🏻

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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9 minutes ago, clintbeed1993 said:

00z GFS is literally a dream run for central NE, and it looks almost identical to the Christmas 2009 blizzard that stalled and wrapped snow into the area all day. Wow, LOCK THAT IN

Yeah it's looking legit for some areas of Nebraska. Hasn't really been discussed as much but the GFS is showing gusts to around 50 mph while heavy snow and ice falls at 6PM on Christmas Day. Not going to be good conditions for any traveling.

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I’ll tell you one thing… Moisture should not be a problem. Been a while since I have seen fog hang around our area for such a long period of time. I was in a dense fog advisory for 24 hours and far eastern Nebraska is in it again tonight. Top off that the sun was out and it got up to 55 degrees today…..hoping for a Christmas surprise!

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25 minutes ago, clintbeed1993 said:

00z GFS is literally a dream run for central NE, and it looks almost identical to the Christmas 2009 blizzard that stalled and wrapped snow into the area all day. Wow, LOCK THAT IN

It’s pretty crazy what the gfs is showing tonight….almost identical to that barrel low that came thru in 2009. Jim flowers mentioned it back a couple weeks ago when models were picking up on this storm; it’s called the Fujiwara effect. Retrograde that low inside the main area of low pressure….if far enough west of that low and it could dump some snow. Lots of runs to go but would love to lock this one in. 

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37 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Ugh... days of models showing 2" of rain here, now it's crapping out.  🤬

00z UK

image.thumb.png.c9f45ad43d3540081082b296b368550b.png

D**n dry air that we are always battling showing its ugly face over you guys out east. Might actually be the wrench in everyone's side I hate to say it....could see the models not picking up on that thus why it's showing the high snowfall forecast over us. Could see QPF fall as we get closer for everyone; otherwise the NWS offices will have to start throwing out watches tomorrow evening. 

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sn10_acc-imp.us_nc.png

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6 hours ago, gabel23 said:

D**n dry air that we are always battling showing its ugly face over you guys out east. Might actually be the wrench in everyone's side I hate to say it....could see the models not picking up on that thus why it's showing the high snowfall forecast over us. Could see QPF fall as we get closer for everyone; otherwise the NWS offices will have to start throwing out watches tomorrow evening. 

500rh.us_nc.png

sn10_acc-imp.us_nc.png

You really see it on this morning’s 06 Euro run. It really dropped snow totals for Omaha. 

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8 hours ago, gabel23 said:

It’s pretty crazy what the gfs is showing tonight….almost identical to that barrel low that came thru in 2009. Jim flowers mentioned it back a couple weeks ago when models were picking up on this storm; it’s called the Fujiwara effect. Retrograde that low inside the main area of low pressure….if far enough west of that low and it could dump some snow. Lots of runs to go but would love to lock this one in. 

I wasn't the only one who was thinking about 2009!  Gosh, this storm could be one hellova Fun, Festive storm to track over the Christmas Holiday!  Good luck to you and your NE neighbors!

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Yesterday, It was the quintessential "Lazy Friday" weather action day.  Many local spots in the east side of the valley had over 1" of rain, locally, I got about 1.19" according to the weather app.  It was the just what the valley needed and across the state.  Down in Tucson they had over 2" of rain.   We were baking in the kitchen and preparing food for Christmas while listening to some Christmas carols.

 

As I write, the ULL spin is right overhead...buckle up folks, this one has some Umpfff!!!!

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2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

06 Euro. Nice. 
image.thumb.png.0b524a20d86a8d41cf20fe1b9ad3bb8f.pngimage.thumb.png.9c381b5d969412b16338daaa15d3bf65.png

Not for Omaha… would need a 30-40 mile nudge east. However I can see the above actually playing out, would follow climatology for the last three years with dry air and bad thermals winning out.

No matter what happens on the cold side of the storm, looking forward to some decent rainfall starting later tonight… 1-2 inches of moisture would be great to see here.

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