Clinton Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 EAX morning discussion: Looking ahead to Monday-Tuesday, long range solutions from the GFS and ECMWF continue to bring a strong H500 trough off the southern Plains and across the Ouachitas to Southern Ozarks. Looking at GEFS Mean H500 height anomalies, a strong trough will emerge, but given spreads in the GEFS members, there remains great uncertainty in the track; which matters greatly for precip amounts and types. Looking at temp profiles and specifically where the boundary layer wet bulb zero line resides, there`s a chance the bulk of the precipitation will out pace the colder temps. However, regardless of that scenario, decent TROWAL signature develops on the trailing side of the upper low. The 00Z ECMWF has a more bullish northeastward track, which would suggest greater snow potential, but the GEFS and GFS Deterministic have maintained the southern track along the Ozarks. I can say with confidence, there will be precipitation Monday into Tuesday. I can say with modest (50 to 60%) confidence there will be a period of all snow, likely late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. I do not have confidence to go into specific amounts at this time. Given warm surface/BL temps, much of monday will be rain or rain/snow mix until the late Monday night early Tuesday timeframe with temps cool off for all snow. This variability has made a mess of forecasting snow amounts at this time. For now, continue to monitor forecasts as we move closer to the event. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 37 minutes ago, Clinton said: EPO doesn't go negative until the 10th so I would bet the artic air gets held up and pours south behind the storm on the 14th and 15th similar to what the GFS is showing this morning and the Euro. With no snow anywhere in the country I hardly doubt this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 2 hours ago, Money said: With no snow anywhere in the country I hardly doubt this The PV is coming south of Hudson Bay by the 14th/15th... 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 Well looks like I was right this thing is pushing south 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 7 minutes ago, GDR said: Well looks like I was right this thing is pushing south The 00z Euro came way north from the previous run. I don't think anyone could say with any certainty at this point what path it will take. We are still 120 hours from the storm taking shape and about 168 hours from it getting to the Great Lakes. Many more changes will happen between now and then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 12z ICON at 132 hours. Storm is getting going in earnest in the plains. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 Fairly similar to last night's Euro. The lead wave of energy puts down a lot of snow into NE and KS, but just stalls out there and doesn't move into Iowa. Then the storm seems to regather and strengthen with the strong deformation band as the SLP heads towards STL. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 To bud's point above, Monday's system is still very much wrapped up in the Aleutian trough and isn't forecast to break away and start moving towards the CONUS for another 36-48 hours. I would say we have at least until then before the models get a better handle on things. That being said, I do think this system will primarily stay to the south of the Northern Plains. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 4 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Fairly similar to last night's Euro. The lead wave of energy puts down a lot of snow into NE and KS, but just stalls out there and doesn't move into Iowa. Then the storm seems to regather and strengthen with the strong deformation band as the SLP heads towards STL. One thing I notice right away on the ICON is that it's warmer out ahead compared to other models. There's like no cold air north of the low... it's relegated to areas west. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 Just now, Hoosier said: One thing I notice right away on the ICON is that it's warmer out ahead compared to other models. There's like no cold air north of the low... it's relegated to areas west. I wouldn't put too much weight on the ICON. It's been flailing around even worse than the other models, and that's saying something. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 I never put much weight in the ICON, but at this range, at least it's another data point. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 SLP heads into central IL 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 Some early GFS comparisons. 12z vs 00z... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 GFS staying further south than the Euro. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 By early Tuesday AM... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 Kansas is the place to be this run. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 Through Tuesday afternoon the largest differences are over Kansas and the northern extent of precip... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 12z vs 00z CMC... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 So far this morning's model runs are trending drier on the northern half of the system but wetter through the heart of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 Close up of the GFS. Don't need much of a shift north to get Iowa back in the game. But the GFS continues to favor a southern track. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 Ozark Nation bullseye??? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 Yes Please... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 On the whole the GFS seemed to be further NW with the snow shield this run vs. the 00z run. Not by much though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 The Canadian definitely went south from the 00z run. And increased totals dramatically in parts of KS & MO. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KTPmidMO Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 Nice run through Missouri again with the 12z GFS. I'd love for this to pan out. First screenshot is kuchera ratio, second is 10:1. What kind of ratios are we expecting with this event here in Missouri, less than 10:1?? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 If we get missed to the south… 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 15 minutes ago, bud2380 said: Close up of the GFS. Don't need much of a shift north to get Iowa back in the game. But the GFS continues to favor a southern track. Would be nice to see those heavier totals continue farther northeast. Not sure if it has something to do with the occlusion (although sfc low continues to deepen slightly as it heads to the Lakes) or some other reason. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 Starting to turn my attention more to the system(s) later next week as this one is appearing out of reach for up here. Of course, things can and will still change but I would need a very sizable shift in order to end up scoring from this one. Luckily there looks to be a couple more chances to break my under-1-inch storm curse this season. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 If you want to see crazy, then you will get crazy 1 Quote Never say Never with Weather, because anything is possible! All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 10 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said: Nice run through Missouri again with the 12z GFS. I'd love for this to pan out. First screenshot is kuchera ratio, second is 10:1. What kind of ratios are we expecting with this event here in Missouri, less than 10:1?? Models right now are showing snow falling with temps in the 30's, based on the GFS snow ratios are worse than 10:1. This is going to be a very wet, heavy snow for Missouri for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 UK rolling in. 120 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 UK really takes this south. Ends here, so can't tell what happens exactly, but you can anticipate it would take it into the OHV vs. the GL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 One thing that is showing up consistently on almost all models is this lead wave of energy that extends even into southern SD, but this piece of energy weakens dramatically and doesn't really shift east. Instead it seems to get swalloped up by the energy to the south. Normally from here you would expect to see a northeast movement to the precip or ENE at least, but it doesn't exactly pan out that way. I think the storm slows down a little here and reorganizes while it strengthens further south, pulling the snow shield with it. We'll see if the 00z Euro was an aberration or it holds onto a further north solution. But the models, outside of the Euro, right now favor areas south of Iowa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 12z vs 06z GEFS through early Tuesday. A nice jump up for many spots... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 9 minutes ago, bud2380 said: UK really takes this south. Ends here, so can't tell what happens exactly, but you can anticipate it would take it into the OHV vs. the GL. Quite south indeed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkstwelve Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 By Tuesday evening. A little odd how much Iowa increased on the mean this run. Not sure what to make of that yet. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 9 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: By Tuesday evening. A little odd how much Iowa increased on the mean this run. Not sure what to make of that yet. Whoa! Was not expecting to see that. You just gave me more optimism up here, LOL. Dangerous thing to have at 120+ hours out. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jsut Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 My eyes are a lot farther east that most of you folks, but this is a fun one to watch. I'm driving from Toronto east of Quebec city on the weekend to ski next week, and I'm interested to see how much this is going to dump on us while we're skiing, as well as what i'm going to be coming home to in the driveway. We've had near nil snow so far this year, and this looks like it has the potential to either shut Toronto down for a few days, or do nothing but rain, or anywhere in between. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, Iceresistance said: If you want to see crazy, then you will get crazy I like what we are seeing here. It could always reverse again, but models have steadily trended colder and for the most part further south putting OK back in play for snow, at least potentially. Look at this crazy jump on the CMCE between last night and today. We are on the edge of the action now, and if it trends any further we'd be in the bullseye. Some ensemble members show just that. 3 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 3 Report Share Posted January 3 CMC Ensembles go south, GFS ensembles go north. This morning DVN called the model runs "psychotic", LOL. Probably a good term. Deterministic medium range run-to- runs and variability remain psychotic, with the ensemble means the way to lean for some comfort for now. 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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