January 14-16 Major Winter Storm and Arctic Blast

[Black Hole]

12z models are all in and 18z models are getting going. EPS is a total fun killer showing maybe an inch of snow here with many members now showing nothing. Most other models have something, ranging from a few inches to a walloping. I'll post the images here. 

12z GFS:

CMC:

ECMWF:

UKMET (10-1):

ICON:

NAM (through 57 hrs):

 

[KTPmidMO]

18z NAM 

 

18z NAM 3km

Starting to maybe find a little bit of hope for a decent snow here in mid Missouri?

 

[Black Hole]

18z GFS with a more believable 3-4" here. I really need more than this for how bad a year it's been (and last year sucked too) but at least it'd be enough to make things look nice for a few days. ICON was similarish with 4-5" here. 

[Black Hole]

The 18z GEFS is backing off its totals, with an estimated 2" mean or so. This event is probably going to keep trending towards the EPS and I'll be lucky to get an inch or so.

But seriously, blah...I'm done with winter, this entire model riding fiasco has just been awful and I'm going to come up empty or almost empty for like the 5th time. My heart can't take anymore lol

[Niko]

This storm is for the i-95 corridor. Finally, looks like they will end their snow drought. Hopefully!!!! WSW's should be posted out for them by late Sunday or Monday.

[CentralNebWeather]

10 pm. 

[Andie]

A Nippy 33* tonight. Light wind after a very blustery day. 
I was out in it some today with a project.  I feel like the cold I have may have taken a turn … not a good one.  Will stay in and hide this weekend.  

[CentralNebWeather]

Looks like we had another 1/2”-1” overnight of very dry wind blown snow. 

[Clinton]

Models seem to be ejecting the energy in pieces over the next 72 hrs.  12z models should get a better handle on this if there are adjustments to be made.  6z models

[Black Hole]

One interesting ripple is that on the 12z HRRR there are indications of some convective snow showers Sunday night into early Monday morning. Convection seems to be the one way to really exceed a model forecast around here. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Temp has dropped since 6 am. My gosh. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Just went outside to start our cars that have to be out in this. It is hard to describe this type of cold. The wind and snow overnight has really increased the drifting. I cleared our sidewalk yesterday to the mailbox  This morning there is a 2-3’ drift across there  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Clinton]

A couple of notes on the 12z NAM.  First it splits the energy into 2 pieces the first of which goes south through southern MO and NE Oklahoma and the second travels across the I-70 corridor.

Another thing is the amount of ice and sleet in the DFW area.

End result 

12z ICON much the same

[Clinton]

12 RDPS consistent but likely consistently overdone

 

[Andie]

Currently 47*
We’ll see this begin to dip between 4 & 5 pm, blustery and a low tonight near 16*

Monday may greet us with some sleet.  Just in time for the commute. Doesn’t it always?  Stay tuned!  

[Black Hole]

Made it up to 23F so far today, warmer than I was expecting. Very cold air just into KS should move in later today so it may be down to just above 0F by tomorrow morning. Looking for 1-3" tomorrow but I could easily see it being less too. 

[OKwx2k4]

Really honing in on a forecast of 1 to 3 inches here per all guidance and analysis. 

Like @Black Holementioned in a earlier post, convective snow looks possible in some places and that may be the kicker on whether I get a good amount or break into wsw criteria for snow. 

I think the combined possibility of snow with the temperatures is enough, but could be wrong.

[Grizzcoat]

-42F wind chill at Kdsm.

KDSM 140254Z 30026G35KT 1 1/2SM -SN BLSN OVC016 M24/M28 A3017 RMK AO2 PK WND 30040/0209 SLP243 P0000 60000 T12441283 51013

Lowest wind chill since I've been  here .(Dec 1998) Coldest wind chill ever recorded here using formula releasesd in Nov 2002. Have to do some digging if even Feb 1996 had them this low here, my guess is yes.

-12F sustained winds 30mph = -42F wci

Meanwhile inside my place - trying to hit the wood burners holy Grail of 100F difference between inside and out. Getting close.

[Black Hole]

1 hour ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Really honing in on a forecast of 1 to 3 inches here per all guidance and analysis. 

Like @Black Holementioned in a earlier post, convective snow looks possible in some places and that may be the kicker on whether I get a good amount or break into wsw criteria for snow. 

I think the combined possibility of snow with the temperatures is enough, but could be wrong.

Last minute model trends are trying to lower totals more to the 0.5-2" range for here. The reality is with high snow ratios and several chances the next few days there are opportunities to overperform, we just have to hope one of them works out. I'll be expecting the under, but of course hopeful to get lucky. If it can snow enough to cover the grass I'll call that a "success". 

[Black Hole]

Temperatures are really plunging this evening. It was 25F here at 4 PM, it's down to 7F now. I see 5F at the airport and 1F in Bartlesville. With completely clear skies and even colder air moving this way we may overperform on low temperatures tonight. I think I put 1F in the grids when I was on shift earlier, that may be more like -2F or so the way things are looking at the moment.

[jaster220]

13 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Temp has dropped since 6 am. My gosh. 

 

1 hour ago, Grizzcoat said:

-42F wind chill at Kdsm.

KDSM 140254Z 30026G35KT 1 1/2SM -SN BLSN OVC016 M24/M28 A3017 RMK AO2 PK WND 30040/0209 SLP243 P0000 60000 T12441283 51013

Lowest wind chill since I've been  here .(Dec 1998) Coldest wind chill ever recorded here using formula releasesd in Nov 2002. Have to do some digging if even Feb 1996 had them this low here, my guess is yes.

-12F sustained winds 30mph = -42F wci

Meanwhile inside my place - trying to hit the wood burners holy Grail of 100F difference between inside and out. Getting close.

To give perspective, on the heals of the PV Bliz of 1/5 -6 2014 I had -16/-41 WC at 7 pm in far SMI. We're not IA or NE where that kind of cold wave is pretty common. Sheltered by the big lakes as we are. At the time, I was just trying to get my driveway cleared of 18" that fell. Now, after all these mild winters it is obvious how crazy 13-14 was for my region. 

[winterfreak]

Current conditions: uninhabitable 

[CentralNebWeather]

Still dropping. Was -12 just 3 hours ago. 

[Bryan1117]

Just heard a “frost quake” in my neighborhood as the temp has settled to -15. Was a loud boom outside, sounded like someone hit the outside of our house… neighbors heard the same thing. Really weird phenomena.

[Tom]

4 minutes ago, Bryan1117 said:

Just heard a “frost quake” in my neighborhood as the temp has settled to -15. Was a loud boom outside, sounded like someone hit the outside of our house… neighbors heard the same thing. Really weird phenomena.

I’ve heard that before and the trees pop bc of moisture inside the body of the tree.  My deck did that before  in Extreme cold. Stay warm my friend!  

 

[Grizzcoat]

3 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

-42F wind chill at Kdsm.

KDSM 140254Z 30026G35KT 1 1/2SM -SN BLSN OVC016 M24/M28 A3017 RMK AO2 PK WND 30040/0209 SLP243 P0000 60000 T12441283 51013

Lowest wind chill since I've been  here .(Dec 1998) Coldest wind chill ever recorded here using formula releasesd in Nov 2002. Have to do some digging if even Feb 1996 had them this low here, my guess is yes.

-12F sustained winds 30mph = -42F wci

Meanwhile inside my place - trying to hit the wood burners holy Grail of 100F difference between inside and out. Getting close.

 

Now down to -43F -- It just insane cold out. Just plugging (or unplugging)  in a car with a block heater with extension cords / plug from car is difficult as everything just doesn't work as good than at  20C where most things we live with daily are designed for. From my winter camping days; everything just takes longer and so how true that is in real life and on a physics scale as literally-- everything is slowing down. Ma Nature saying "you wanna move that fast and get stuff done quick- -- not so fast"

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

5 hours ago, Black Hole said:

Last minute model trends are trying to lower totals more to the 0.5-2" range for here. The reality is with high snow ratios and several chances the next few days there are opportunities to overperform, we just have to hope one of them works out. I'll be expecting the under, but of course hopeful to get lucky. If it can snow enough to cover the grass I'll call that a "success". 

Yeah. Brown cold is the worst kind.

I'm hoping to get a bit in to at least kind of justify this cold. Lol.

[Grizzcoat]

Did it. 100F difference between my house thermostat and outside ambient temp.

Tough to do with the wind blowing a WCI of -45  with 4" walls here in IA. ( MN has 6" walls were i have done 2 times before)---  But I'am sitting in my basement in summer clothes-, no socks, enjoying the temp approach -20F.

[westMJim]

Just took a snowfall, depth measurement and since 7AM yesterday I have 10” of new snow and now have a total of 18” on the ground. Here in NW GR the new snowfall is a big event now. I have at least 10" of new snow overnight. And there is at least 18" on the ground there is some drifting. I am sure the roads are not the best.

[westMJim]

2 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Did it. 100F difference between my house thermostat and outside ambient temp.

You really keep it hot inside your house. I keep my thermostat at 70 during the day and down to 65 at night.  

[Black Hole]

2 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Did it. 100F difference between my house thermostat and outside ambient temp.

Tough to do with the wind blowing a WCI of -45  with 4" walls here in IA. ( MN has 6" walls were i have done 2 times before)---  But I'am sitting in my basement in summer clothes-, no socks, enjoying the temp approach -20F.

I hope the 12% soul sucking humidity also feels good lol

My wife really hates how much the furnace dries the air out so we keep it quite a bit cooler. Usually 66-70F. Conversely in the summer we let it run at 77-80F. 

[Black Hole]

3 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Yeah. Brown cold is the worst kind.

I'm hoping to get a bit in to at least kind of justify this cold. Lol.

The HRRR had tried to take it all away overnight but now its back with some. At least for my area I don't see any reason to change what I said yesterday. The only thing left to do is wait and see what happens now. 

[OKwx2k4]

53 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

The HRRR had tried to take it all away overnight but now its back with some. At least for my area I don't see any reason to change what I said yesterday. The only thing left to do is wait and see what happens now. 

Yeah. It was alone in that regard and that's why I kinda didn't hold much value in it. 

Looking at returns across the state, we have moisture making its way through, so we'll see how it goes. Actually looks early to me, so also just watching and waiting now. 

I'm sure of one thing. It's ridiculously cold. 

[jaster220]

Looks like we received another 1-2" of LES over night. CAM's looked "iffy" as to whether or not a decent streamer would swing through, but I'll take the score. Due to a trough trailing the path of the big SLP, there is a unique phenomenon where the two primary LES belts in The Mitt are working with different wind directions. It will sometimes happen as a CF is swinging through from the NW, but this has just been a stationary feature.

[Black Hole]

1 hour ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Yeah. It was alone in that regard and that's why I kinda didn't hold much value in it. 

Looking at returns across the state, we have moisture making its way through, so we'll see how it goes. Actually looks early to me, so also just watching and waiting now. 

I'm sure of one thing. It's ridiculously cold. 

Still just 1F in Tulsa, and with clouds, evaporative cooling, and continued cold advection the temperature is barely going to budge. Perhaps just 5-7F for a high temperature. 

I think I agree that radar returns seem marginally ahead of schedule. I see mPING reports of snow across OKC now, stretching northwest towards the KVNX radar. The dry air hole around that radar is diminishing too so flakes will be flying soon for both of us. 

[jaster220]

#frozennation!

Pretty sure I wasn't expecting Detroit to be colder than up north today, but I will be there this afternoon to get the real-feel surprise.

[jaster220]

3 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

Still just 1F in Tulsa, and with clouds, evaporative cooling, and continued cold advection the temperature is barely going to budge. Perhaps just 5-7F for a high temperature. 

I think I agree that radar returns seem marginally ahead of schedule. I see mPING reports of snow across OKC now, stretching northwest towards the KVNX radar. The dry air hole around that radar is diminishing too so flakes will be flying soon for both of us. 

What are those??

[Black Hole]

2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

What are those??

It's crowd sourced precipitation type reports. I know you can do it/see it through radarscope, and probably another places too. But on my radarscope app they just show up as icons of what people reported. Super useful on days like today. 

[Black Hole]

I don't think things seeming ahead of schedule is our imagination @OKwx2k4. Dew points are higher than modeled in most areas by 2-3F, but way higher where snow is punching down near the KNVX radar. A lot of models didn't accumulate anything over there so its a good sign. 

[Black Hole]

Here is the "last call" for 12z model runs, holding onto 1-3" for me.