January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[snow_wizard]

ECMWF comes up with a 39/24 for SEA.  Decently cold.  It appears there will be some lowland snow opportunities as well.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF hints at a possible long period of cold / chilly and clear weather.  I like how most of the runs on the GFS and ECMWF are now going for 850s bottoming out in the -8 to -10 range.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Oh wow I just checked the Euro, this is amazing! Here's my forecast, it'll arrive 12 hours earlier than the euro is forecasting, it'll be a couple degrees colder, 25% stronger, and that's all you need for the willamette valley to get some surprise groundhogs day snow, just like in the movie! (Except it'll be in oregon this time rather than Pennsylvania). And I'll get some of it too!

 

Great 850 temps too! I will be keeping a very close eye I this!

[Meatyorologist]

I find it difficult to compare the Oregon and Washington Cascades. Washington has endless alpine wilderness and nearly untouched backcountry forest, and obviously Tahoma itself, the king of the Cascades.

The Oregon Cascades however feature some of the most fascinating volcanism on Earth, and no, I'm not talking about the big, flashy NatGeo cover-worthy cones of the Washington spine. I'm talking hundreds of square miles of basalt floes. Freshwater springs with some of the cleanest and purest blue water on planet Earth. A crater lake the size of downtown Portland. A freaking FIELD of obsidian; nowhere else on Earth has anything like that. Caves that stay in the 30s year round. And it's not like Oregn lacks majestic cone volcanoes either, sporting the mighty Mt. Hood, the Three Sisters, Diamond Peak, Mt. McLaughlin, and why not lend another nod to Crater Lake.

[lowlandsnow]

This Jan cold snap was really impressive for the coldest inhabited place in WA, Mazama. They reached -29. Only 3 winters have recorded a temp below -29 68-69, 83-84 and 78-79.

[lowlandsnow]

Here's a really interesting website with a lot of photos of old glaciers on the West Coast. Crazy how much some glaciers have retreated. 

Glaciers of Washington | Glaciers of the American West

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

I've done 1000s of miles of hiking in oregon, a 1000ish miles in Washington, and I, no offense, find it delusional to compare oregon to Washington. Oregon is great, amazing, and has its own beautiful and unique scenery, but Washington is easily Supperior. The north cascades in Washington are basically the Alps of America.

I've been to 42 states now I believe and in my opinion the most scenic state that I have seen is California and nothing else is even close. Oregon, Washington, are up there too. Montana and Utah are great as well. Wyoming has some amazing mountain ranges, Colorado is fantastic, but IMO sort of overrated, Idaho is in that tier with Wyoming and Colorado too. Never been to Alaska though, so I really can't say anything. 

To me the Columbia Basin of Washington is a huge area of the state that is pretty hideous, and the massive population of the Puget Sound region is a major turn off (California is so spectacular it overcomes this.), so a lot of this is preference. Washington has the Olympics, North Cascades, and Mt. Rainier which pretty much top anything in Oregon. On the other hand Oregon has an unbelievable river system, and spectacular high desert. Also the Wallowas, Elkhorn, and Strawberry ranges are criminally underrated, and we all know how freaking awesome the Oregon coast is. If you held a gun to my head I would say Washington has a slight edge in scenery, 

At the end of the day the only places in the US I would live are Oregon, Washington, northern Idaho, and Western Montana. Possibly Alaska, but I haven't been there yet. 

[snow_wizard]

The EPS slams the door on the Pacific next week.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

I find it difficult to compare the Oregon and Washington Cascades. Washington has endless alpine wilderness and nearly untouched backcountry forest, and obviously Tahoma itself, the king of the Cascades.

The Oregon Cascades however feature some of the most fascinating volcanism on Earth, and no, I'm not talking about the big, flashy NatGeo cover-worthy cones of the Washington spine. I'm talking hundreds of square miles of basalt floes. Freshwater springs with some of the cleanest and purest blue water on planet Earth. A crater lake the size of downtown Portland. A freaking FIELD of obsidian; nowhere else on Earth has anything like that. Caves that stay in the 30s year round. And it's not like Oregn lacks majestic cone volcanoes either, sporting the mighty Mt. Hood, the Three Sisters, Diamond Peak, Mt. McLaughlin, and why not lend another nod to Crater Lake.

It amazes me the word never got out about Mt. Adams...

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

I find it difficult to compare the Oregon and Washington Cascades. Washington has endless alpine wilderness and nearly untouched backcountry forest, and obviously Tahoma itself, the king of the Cascades.

The Oregon Cascades however feature some of the most fascinating volcanism on Earth, and no, I'm not talking about the big, flashy NatGeo cover-worthy cones of the Washington spine. I'm talking hundreds of square miles of basalt floes. Freshwater springs with some of the cleanest and purest blue water on planet Earth. A crater lake the size of downtown Portland. A freaking FIELD of obsidian; nowhere else on Earth has anything like that. Caves that stay in the 30s year round. And it's not like Oregn lacks majestic cone volcanoes either, sporting the mighty Mt. Hood, the Three Sisters, Diamond Peak, Mt. McLaughlin, and why not lend another nod to Crater Lake.

No doubt OR is amazing for volcanic features, but WA has more than its fair share as well.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

ECMWF comes up with a 39/24 for SEA.  Decently cold.  It appears there will be some lowland snow opportunities as well.

There is a path to some pretty cold stuff in a lot of these runs, but if we ended up with something like that we should be happy. 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It amazes me the word never got out about Mt. Adams...

That mountain does not gets it due.  The only time I ever see it is from the hill that my mine is on over in Liberty.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

ENSO forecasts continue to just drop off a cliff.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

There is a path to some pretty cold stuff in a lot of these runs, but if we ended up with something like that we should be happy. 

Yup.  We just want to put up the best numbers possible this winter being mindful it's a strong Nino.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

That mountain does not gets it due.  The only time I ever see it is from the hill that my mine is on over in Liberty.

I haven't been there in about 5 years, but it's a great area. 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

 

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It amazes me the word never got out about Mt. Adams...

Shhhhh, keep it that way. 

[snow_wizard]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

ENSO forecasts continue to just drop off a cliff.

I am very excited about this.  Given the mode we are in next cold season could be something special.  Maybe we'll get a chilly summer out of it either this summer or next...or both.

[snow_wizard]

EPS is running a couple of degrees colder than the 12z for surface temps in the Seattle area.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just crunched some numbers. SLE will end January just about average, potentially slightly above if they overachieve the next few days. Eugene will definitely be solidly above average. Haven't checked PDX, but a few days ago SLE was running a bigger negative departure, so essentially NW Oregon erases a -5F monthly departure in the last week of the month. I think we still have some major work to do in January. 

[Meatyorologist]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It amazes me the word never got out about Mt. Adams...

Mt. Rainier has the limelight. Being as close as it is Mt. Adams is in its shadow in all ways but literally.

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

EPS is running a couple of degrees colder than the 12z for surface temps in the Seattle area.

Below average temps 2nd through the 8th so far. Feb at it again 

[Slushy Inch]

Chance of snow also up on eps. Nice runs tonight 

[snow_wizard]

19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I've been to 42 states now I believe and in my opinion the most scenic state that I have seen is California and nothing else is even close. Oregon, Washington, are up there too. Montana and Utah are great as well. Wyoming has some amazing mountain ranges, Colorado is fantastic, but IMO sort of overrated, Idaho is in that tier with Wyoming and Colorado too. Never been to Alaska though, so I really can't say anything. 

To me the Columbia Basin of Washington is a huge area of the state that is pretty hideous, and the massive population of the Puget Sound region is a major turn off (California is so spectacular it overcomes this.), so a lot of this is preference. Washington has the Olympics, North Cascades, and Mt. Rainier which pretty much top anything in Oregon. On the other hand Oregon has an unbelievable river system, and spectacular high desert. Also the Wallowas, Elkhorn, and Strawberry ranges are criminally underrated, and we all know how freaking awesome the Oregon coast is. If you held a gun to my head I would say Washington has a slight edge in scenery, 

At the end of the day the only places in the US I would live are Oregon, Washington, northern Idaho, and Western Montana. Possibly Alaska, but I haven't been there yet. 

You be right about the Columbia Basin.  Yucko!  I will say the Coulees are pretty amazing though.

I would have loved to have seen the Puget Sound Basin before it got so overly developed.  I got a small taste when I was a kid, but even then it was already booming.

[Meatyorologist]

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

No doubt OR is amazing for volcanic features, but WA has more than its fair share as well.

Eastern WA is really where it's at for WA volcanism... Though Mt. Rainier can not be ignored, considering it is the highest peak in the crest. Hard to argue against that.

Our state's main specialty though is seismic buckling and naturally tall terrain without volcanic aid. The North Cascades sit with their valley bottoms more than a mile up, and peaks nearing eight thousand feet, some surpassing nine. It's less dissimilar of an environment to Colorado than to the rest of the PNW, albeit significantly wetter.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Eastern WA is really where it's at for WA volcanism... Though Mt. Rainier can not be ignored, considering it is the highest peak in the crest. Hard to argue against that.

Our state's main specialty though is seismic buckling and naturally tall terrain without volcanic aid. The North Cascades sit with their valley bottoms more than a mile up, and peaks nearing eight thousand feet, some surpassing nine. It's less dissimilar of an environment to Colorado than to the rest of the PNW, albeit significantly wetter.

The South WA Cascades have some amazing volcanic areas as well.  Lava tubes, cinder cones, and shield volcanoes.  There is also a large volcanic area around Mount Baker that has seen some apocalyptic stuff in the past.

[snow_wizard]

One bad thing about the EPS is it shows shockingly little snow for the Central and Southern WA Cascades.

[Cascadia_Wx]

14 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Mt. Rainier has the limelight. Being as close as it is Mt. Adams is in its shadow in all ways but literally.

Mr Adams is actually a larger mountain by area (the square miles that make up its base) than Mt Rainier. I could go on for days about Mt. Adams. It’s easily my favorite Cascade peak. Such a remote mountain too, for being such a behemoth. Miles of wilderness on all sides, as opposed to Rainier whose slopes are ascended, at points, by NPS roads. Not to say I don’t love Tahoma, but it’s southern neighbor, Pahto, is severely underrated.

[Meatyorologist]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The South WA Cascades have some amazing volcanic areas as well.  Lava tubes, cinder cones, and shield volcanoes.  There is also a large volcanic area around Mount Baker that has seen some apocalyptic stuff in the past.

this is true

[Cascadia_Wx]

20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just crunched some numbers. SLE will end January just about average, potentially slightly above if they overachieve the next few days. Eugene will definitely be solidly above average. Haven't checked PDX, but a few days ago SLE was running a bigger negative departure, so essentially NW Oregon erases a -5F monthly departure in the last week of the month. I think we still have some major work to do in January. 

The Portland area stayed chillier for much longer than Salem, of course. I hope we can eke something out that’s at least below the 30 year normal, considering the prolific arctic airmass this month. But there’s no point in even looking at the averages until the next 3-4 days are through with them, IMO, since it’s impossible to predict precisely how wildly this torch will overachieve.

[Cascadia_Wx]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The South WA Cascades have some amazing volcanic areas as well.  Lava tubes, cinder cones, and shield volcanoes.  There is also a large volcanic area around Mount Baker that has seen some apocalyptic stuff in the past.

The Indian Heaven volcanic field and Big Lava bed are two of my favorite such areas down this way, in particular. There’s a seasonal lake near the Big Lava Bed called South Prairie that completely disappears in a matter of days each May/June. That’s because the lakebed is underlain by lava tubes. They become chocked with ice in the winter, but once the ice plugs melt, the whole thing drains like a big bathtub, leaving behind a pretty meadow. You wouldn’t even know a lake had been there if it weren’t for the piles of driftwood moored atop the surrounding lava.

[Cascadia_Wx]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

One bad thing about the EPS is it shows shockingly little snow for the Central and Southern WA Cascades.

Don’t pretend you don’t love it

[Ken in Wood Village]

That mass of moisture I talked about last night is coming onshore now. I get to drive in it to work this morning

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

7 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

That drive is spectacular. I love doing the whole Olympic loop. Sometimes I set aside a day and just drive around the mountains entirely, skipping all the ferries. It's an eight hour round trip, around fourteen if you stop at all the good spots. Neah Bay, Crescent Lake, Quinault's world record Sitka Spruce, dining in Port Angeles, and Hurricaine Ridge in the summer.

Then you have the west side of the peninsula wrapping back around. You can catch Dungeness State Park north of Sequim; and Miller Peninsula to its immediate east offers underrated wilderness and hidden secret views on the rugged, hard to access north beach.

The faster route back home on SR3 is a calm drive with plenty of forest, and some more business in Port Orchard (you can even check out some of the 2018 tornado damage on the south side of town), with a ride on the Tacoma Narrows bridge awaiting you as you re-merge with I5.

Alternatively you can keep west down along the spine of the Hood Canal and follow HW101 to its northern terminus. This route immerses you in the eastern flanks of Olympic National Park, passing countless scenic overviews, roadside trails, and freshwater Oyster farms, all the while hitting up Shelton and Olympia along the way.

Excellent commentary on these routes.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I have to say. Without the models showing endless pepto and low temps well below zero it’s hard to get too excited for the upcoming cool down. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I have to say. Without the models showing endless pepto and low temps well below zero it’s hard to get too excited for the upcoming cool down. 

I'm sure it will offer more than shown.  You should be in a good spot.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Almost 13 inches of rain this month.

[Cascadia_Wx]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I have to say. Without the models showing endless pepto and low temps well below zero it’s hard to get too excited for the upcoming cool down. 

I think we’ve learned what they need to show in modern times for us to get a significant arctic airmass.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Salem is at 9.49" on the month. This is their 3rd wettest January this Century (They likely not catch 2006 or 2012), and currently tied with 1951 for 16th wettest on record. They will likely pass 1999, 1954, and 1894 today. They need to get to 10.90" to break into the top 10. Their wettest January was 1953 with 15.40". 

[Anti Marine Layer]

The sun won't come out tomorrow or Monday or Tuesday or Wednesday or Thursday or Friday according to the latest forecast. Annie did not live in the PNW.

[Slushy Inch]

Graphcast looks really good. Models struggling with this potential cold trough. It’s weird setup. Part of the Alaska trough somehow gets pinched off and drifts south. 6z gfs took it away completely and ensembles are not convinced.