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January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot


iFred

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Looking at the 1 hour precip maps on the GFS it's really odd how precip bands just keep forming out of thin air for the Puget Sound region until morning.  The ECMWF has been showing something similar.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, North_County said:

Side note, but does anyone else call a freezing rain event a "silver thaw"? Or is that just a local colloquialism? Growing up, that's what I always heard it referred to as. But I don't think I've ever heard that phrase from anyone outside of Whatcom County. 🤷‍♂️

I’ve heard the term before. Perhaps it’s a west coast thing. 

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3 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

Apparently our road doesn't have ice yet, but the sidewalk and garbage cans do. Odds on garbage collection being cancelled for .1 inch of ice or less? (To be fair, I don't want those massive things driving around and trying to stop in any amount of ice on these hills.)

You just reminded me to take the trash out tonight. Thank you for saving my a** from a merciless whooping since I already forgot last week.

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1 minute ago, KingstonWX said:

Temp says 30 but nothing seems to be frozen. If you go outside, it just feels like a typical rain event. Odd. 

Very odd.  It's 30 here and it is icy.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

I’ve heard the term before. Perhaps it’s a west coast thing. 

I've heard it used on a more national level.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

You just reminded me to take the trash out tonight. Thank you for saving my a** from a merciless whooping since I already forgot last week.

A weekly alarm on your phone is going to save you. You can name it so when it goes off you remember what it's for. And you can make a second one to go off 10 minutes (or whatever) later that is REALLY annoying so that you go and do it instead of going, "Oh, yeah. I'll get to that in a second." Or maybe that's just our ADHD house...

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Whoever makes those decisions sounds like an incompetent buffoon.

As someone who grew up in the Midwest, it’s irritating because I still expect perfectly clear roads within a few hours of the snow stopping. Maybe I need to pay someone to plow and salt the 2 blocks that I need cleared so I can reach an arterial street when it snows. In Dec 2021 there was a pile of 5-6 crashed cars at the bottom of my hill because people got antsy around the 3rd or 4th day after it snowed. 

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Very odd.  It's 30 here and it is icy.

Might be related to dewpoint.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I've heard it used on a more national level.

Not here. Never heard it before in my life.

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44 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

We do not speak of such things in this house.

I think the modelled totals might be a bit high some places.  Im not convinced there will be enough moisture and high enough ratios for some of those 8”+ totals I’ve seen.   I like generally 4-8” in Greater Vancouver and out to Abbotsford.  Probably 6-12” in the eastern Valley. 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Might be related to dewpoint.  

Or miscalibrated sensors. Or the surfaces being used for reference (under trees may take longer to freeze, for instance..I always use an exposed metallic railing for ZR).

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3 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

As someone who grew up in the Midwest, it’s irritating because I still expect perfectly clear roads within a few hours of the snow stopping. Maybe I need to pay someone to plow and salt the 2 blocks that I need cleared so I can reach an arterial street when it snows. In Dec 2021 there was a pile of 5-6 crashed cars at the bottom of my hill because people got antsy around the 3rd or 4th day after it snowed. 

We actually have that out here... roads are constantly being plowed and sanded during snow events.    If it snows in the evening and stops... the roads are all clear by morning.   That is King County taking care of us here.  But go down to North Bend and the roads are a mess for days unless it warms up.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

Not here. Never heard it before in my life.

I have heard that term in Minnesota.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, Phil said:

Or miscalibrated sensors. Or the surfaces used for reference (under trees may take longer to freeze, for instance).

Or simply no surfaces here or in other spots were cold enough.... it got up to 38 here today, 39 yesterday.  No need to complicate things.

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

We actually have that out here... roads are constantly being plowed and sanded during snow events.    If it snows in the evening and stops... the roads are all clear by morning here.   That is King County taking care of us here.  But go down to North Bend and the roads are a mess for days unless it warms up.  

So why are you richies being taken care of out that way but the average joe has to deal with crap roads.... seems a bit unfair.

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

I have heard that term in Minnesota.  

Interesting. Then again ZR is seldom indicative of a “thaw” here so maybe that’s why it isn’t used AFAIK.

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We actually have that out here... roads are constantly being plowed and sanded during snow events.    If it snows in the evening and stops... the roads are all clear by morning here.   That is King County taking care of us here.  But go down to North Bend and the roads are a mess for days unless it warms up.  

It *might* also have something to do with the net worth of the folks in your neighborhood vs the net worth of folks in other parts of unincorporated King County. (Not your fault, of course. Just saying that I have not seen the same response for road maintenance in other neighborhoods.)

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1 minute ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

image.thumb.png.8eee5bc91550daab3c16430b4c68c27e.png

He is falling for the illusion.   

The deformation band is already forming way up north on Vancouver Island.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Raining here and 30. Ice is trying to build up but it’s not quite there yet.

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2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats

Total Snowfall - 0.75”

Max Snow Depth - 0.5”

Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13)

Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13)

Number of Freezes - 43

Sub-40 highs - 12

Highs 32 or lower - 3

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1 minute ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

It *might* also have something to do with the net worth of the folks in your neighborhood vs the net worth of folks in other parts of unincorporated King County. (Not your fault, of course. Just saying that I have not seen the same response for road maintenance in other neighborhoods.)

Nope.   Absolutely not true.    All areas are cleared up here by the county.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, icyasf said:

Well this event was a fun ride, and the first one I actually was on here for!! I’m a freshman at OSU so I live in the dorms but I stayed home for the weekend at my parents place cause they are a little bit out of town and have a weather station and a bit of elevation compared to campus. We ended with a 30/19 day Saturday, 25/18 Sunday, 29/19 Monday, and a low of 16 today. Didn’t get snow but the sleet and ZR combo was pretty interesting. Hoping we thaw out of this, and people that lost power get it back quick. Currently 28 with half an inch of ice on top of sleet.

IMG_4247.jpeg

Your profile name is very appropriate at the moment! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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6 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Or simply no surfaces here or in other spots were cold enough.... it got up to 38 here today, 39 yesterday.  No need to complicate things.

If the air temp is 31°F there will still be some amount of freezing. Your thermometer is wrong.

I saw ZR in the middle of the day in mid-march 2014 immediately following 50°F weather. Surfaces cool relatively quickly when it’s precipitating.

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Alternating between sleet and snow here. 33F/27F with a north wind

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Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 5.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 0.5" 2/26, Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Nope.   Absolutely not true.    All areas are cleared up here by the county.  

So they just ignore the crap roads in NB and clear you guys out, go back through and ignore the crap roads in NB and move on..... that's weird and suspicious.

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Just now, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

King County takes better care of people with more money. They just do. Seattle takes better care of roads in more expensive neighborhoods too. 

I can tell you they make sure the main roads are plowed out here in all neighborhoods equally.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

If the air temp is 31°F there will still be some amount of freezing. Your thermometer is wrong.

I saw ZR in the middle of the day in mid-march 2014 following 50°F weather. Surfaces cool relatively quickly when it’s precipitating.

Not always, it's ok to be wrong.  And no ya didn't.

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3 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

So they just ignore the crap roads in NB and clear you guys out, go back through and ignore the crap roads in NB and move on..... that's weird and suspicious.

No Chris.   North Bend has to take of its own roads and they are bad at it.   Intentionally so because they claim it will cost more in road maintenance.    The line is drawn right at the city limit.   Literally. in all directions,   The county will lift its plows right when it crosses the city line.    We don't live in the city of North Bend out here.    This is an endless discussion among locals out here... forever.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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