March 2024 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Prob should get a March thread fired up...is March coming in like a Lion or Lamb this year? Depends on what part of the country your living in but the West is certainly your Best choice to Feel the Ides of March.  Keep this short and sweet.

CFSv2 is gun hoe on a splendid Spring Ski and Snow season...I'm digging this pattern for Mother Nature to keep filling up that Colorado Basin with some hefty snows!  Great news for the water source region.

 

[gimmesnow]

Man the West is really calling me after such a bum winter out here. I think I'm gonna end up having more days in a shirt than a coat on the hill this year.

[Hawkeye]

March, please bring us rain.

[MIKEKC]

I hope March turns a bit more stormy here in the the middle part of the country. After a very wet Nov. through Jan. we have been really dry for 5 weeks(only a total of .14) now and obviously well above average on temps. 

More beautiful weather heading in today for KC with highs around 60 and we are heading for 70-80 degree weather both days this weekend. 

 

 

 

[Hawkeye]

There is no consistency on the models in the medium to long range.  One run is wet, the next bone dry.

[Andie]

This will likely be our worst wildfire in history.  

edit:
80,000 acres of the Historic Turkey Track Ranch in the Texas Panhandle have burned. They believe the loss to be estimated at $180 mil.  
The historic ranch runs along 26 mi of the Canadian River. 
No word on how many head of cattle have been lost.  

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/unparalleled-loss-wildfires-consume-historic-turkey-track-ranch/ar-BB1j7eVl

[westMJim]

Welcome to meteorological spring! This past February with a mean of 35.4 was the new warmest of record at Grand Rapids, the mean of 36.8 was also a record at Muskegon and the mean of 36.7 was a record at Holland. The meteorological winter mean of 33.6 (tentative) is the 2^nd warmest for any meteorological winter at Grand Rapids.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 35/19 there was a trace of snowfall the highest wind speed was 33 MPH out of the NW. The sun was out 96% of the time. For today the average H/L is 38/23 the record high of 58 was set in 1992 and the record low of -5 was set in 1967. The record snow fall of 7.0” fell in 2016 the record rainfall of 0.97” fell in 2004. The most snow on the ground is 18” in 2014 Last year the H/L was 47/30.

[westMJim]

While we did not have much of a meteorological winter, we are none the less now in meteorological spring. This past meteorological winter with a mean of 33.6 was the 2nd warmest at Grand Rapids.  For March the 30 year average temperature at Grand Rapids 35.7° the 15 year average is 36.3° The average 30 year total precipitation is 2.39” the 15 year average is 2.58” the 30 year average snowfall is 7.6” and the 15 year average is 5.4” The warmest mean average temperature is 50.7 in 2012 the coldest mean temperature is 23.9 in 1960. The wettest March was in 1948 with 5.77” the dryest was in 1910 with 0.08” the snowiest March was in 1965 with 36.0” (that is the 2nd longest running record for snowfall, May is the longest with the record going back to 1923) The least snowfall for March is 0 in 1910 1945 and 2021 had just a trace of snowfall. The record high for March is 87 on March 21, 2012 the record low is -12 on March 8th 1943 it was -8 on March 3rd 2014. The most snowfall for one day is 13.6” on March 2nd 2002 the storm total was 15.3” The most on the ground was 20” in 2014 the most days with 1” or more on the ground was 29 in 1965 in 1960 there were 27 days and in 2014 there were 20 days.  For meteorological spring the 30 year average mean temperature is 47.5° the 15 year average is 48.0° the 30 year average precipitation is 10.30” the 15 year average is 10.71” The 30 year average snowfall amount is 9.6” the 15 year average is 7.6” The most snowfall for any meteorological spring is 41.4” in 1965 the least snowfall for spring is a trace in 1945.

[Clinton]

Warm weekend ahead and hopefully I can get some rain soon as things have dried back out again.

[Tom]

March is Roaring in like a Ferocious Lion across the Sierra and Intermountain West!  Boy, this would be your "Pick Week of Winter" up in the Lake Tahoe area...very reminiscent to what transpired last year during their Epic Snow parade.  This part of the pattern was on my calendar and wish I was up there to experience a week of non stop snowfall!  There will be another chance in the future that I'm sure of....never the less, the mountains will be blessed with White Gold!

Blizzard in Motion..60-75mph winds and 5-12 FEET of Heavenly Snow!  Lets Go!

 

HOLY Smokes...115 MPH winds???  Wowza...man, what a storm this is going to be for the Truckee/Tahoe region...

Quote

Blizzard Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Reno NV
101 PM PST Thu Feb 29 2024

CAZ072-NVZ002-012330-
/O.CON.KREV.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-240303T1800Z/
Greater Lake Tahoe Area-
Including the cities of Stateline, Markleeville, Incline Village,
Tahoe City, Glenbrook, Truckee, and South Lake Tahoe
101 PM PST Thu Feb 29 2024

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions likely, particularly from Friday
  evening through Saturday morning. Snow accumulations between 3 and
  6 feet for Lake Tahoe communities, with 6 to 10 feet above 7000
  feet. Winds gusting to 70 mph in lower elevations and above 115
  mph over Sierra ridges.

* WHERE...Greater Lake Tahoe Area.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM PST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Whiteout conditions with near zero visibility at times
  due to blowing snow. The strong winds and weight of snow on tree
  limbs may down power lines and could cause sporadic power outages.
  Whiteout conditions are expected and will make travel treacherous
  and potentially life-threatening.

 

[gimmesnow]

TropicalTidbits added the Euro AIFS model for free.

[Black Hole]

Here is the EPS for week 1 (top) and week 2 (bottom). The first week of the month looks like more of the same for the south-central US with warm and mostly dry conditions. Things will change pretty dramatically (if the forecast holds) for week two with the trough settling over the area bringing somewhat below normal temps and near to above normal precip. I suspect areas close to the Rockies may get a few snow chances here, and that may extend northeast into portions of the upper midwest. 

[Andie]

Sunny. Gorgeous day in DFW.
 High of 70.  

edit:
An area the size of Rhode Island has burned in the Panhandle.  I’ve heard 500 homes have burned, but that is an estimate.  Thousands of cattle have perished.  
This is calving season.  
 Cows run $2500-$3000 ea

https://apnews.com/article/texas-panhandle-wildfires-dead-cattle-2f9dde9ef57f554be1a984ca4ac0ec8f

Three deaths have been announced on the news.  
Some areas are inaccessible presently so numbers will grow.  
Conditions remain for more fires tomorrow

[Beltrami Island]

On 2/28/2024 at 9:48 AM, gimmesnow said:

Man the West is really calling me after such a bum winter out here. I think I'm gonna end up having more days in a shirt than a coat on the hill this year.

Just to tease, Teton pass atm...  The entire west is getting hit with the current storm.

What's funny out west is, while isolated weather patterns do happen to favor different areas at different times. When good storms hit the west they can cover vast areas from California to Colorado to Montana to Washington at the same time. Snowstorms in the Midwest have maybe a max 200-250 mile wide swath 95% of the time?

[westMJim]

As you may already know February 2024 was the warmest on record at Grand Rapids, Lansing, Muskegon and Holland and many other locations across Michigan and the Great Lakes area. The meteorological winter would have been the warmest on record if not for a cold and snowy 9 days in January. As for the winter season Grand Rapids has had only 40.3” of snowfall and is on track for one of the least snowy winters of record. And there so far there have only been 25 days with 1” or more on the ground while 23 is the least we are still in the running for 2^nd place of 30 days set in 1931/32.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 49/25 there was a reported trace of rainfall and the sun was out 62% of the time. For today the average H/L is 38/23 the record high of 60 was set in 1961 and 1983 the record low of -8 was set in 1978. The wettest and most snowfall was in 2002 when 1.26” fell as 13.6” of snowfall. The most snow on the ground was 20” in 2014. Last year the H/L was 40/29

One final note if it does not fall below 40 before midnight today will set a new record for the warmest minimum for any March 2^nd

[Black Hole]

9 hours ago, Beltrami Island said:

Just to tease, Teton pass atm...  The entire west is getting hit with the current storm.

What's funny out west is, while isolated weather patterns do happen to favor different areas at different times. When good storms hit the west they can cover vast areas from California to Colorado to Montana to Washington at the same time. Snowstorms in the Midwest have maybe a max 200-250 mile wide swath 95% of the time?

What you said here is definitely true, storms out there seem to have a much bigger footprint and mesoscale processes don't seem to be quite as important. Most of the west is higher elevation and more of the precipitation pattern is governed by where you are relative to the terrain and what direction the wind is blowing. 

It's taken some getting used to since I moved out here since every storm is very track dependent. 

[Tom]

Ohhh  Tahoe!!!   That's gotta be a pure Heavenly Tahoe experience...sign me up!

Quote

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions likely, particularly through Saturday
  morning. There is a 10-20% chance of thunderstorms along the crest
  through this evening with snowfall rates of 4 to 6 inches per hour
  at times. Snow accumulations between 3 and 6 feet for Lake Tahoe
  communities, with 6 to 10 feet above 7000 feet. Winds gusting to
  70 mph in lower elevations and above 115 mph over Sierra ridges
  with significant drifting of snow.

 

[Tom]

We should prob start a brand new ENSO thread for this year...I personally think this has to be one of the biggest flips in ENSO states in my lifetime.  If anyone has any stats on this it would be welcomed...soo, the CFSv2 is suggesting that by the Autumn season the forecasted La Nina could end up becoming a Strong one.  

This would mean we go from a Strong Nino into a Strong La Nina...would this mean the GL's go from a record warm winter to a Record cold winter next season????  #balanceofnature

 

[chescowxman]

0.83" of rain so far here in East Nantmeal. Some other area totals Atgen 0.72" /Warwick 0.75" / Chester Springs 0.82" / Glenmoore 0.84"/ Kennett Square 0.96" / West Bradford 0.93" / West Chester 0.93". Rain should continue through much of today with another 0.50" to 0.75" possible. Sun returns tomorrow and temps should get close to 60 degrees.

County wide records for today: High 76 degrees Phoenixville (1972) / Low 1 above Phoenixville (1967) / Rain 1.65" West Grove (1954) / Snow 12.0" Devault (1969)

[Hoosier]

56 minutes ago, Tom said:

We should prob start a brand new ENSO thread for this year...I personally think this has to be one of the biggest flips in ENSO states in my lifetime.  If anyone has any stats on this it would be welcomed...soo, the CFSv2 is suggesting that by the Autumn season the forecasted La Nina could end up becoming a Strong one.  

This would mean we go from a Strong Nino into a Strong La Nina...would this mean the GL's go from a record warm winter to a Record cold winter next season????  #balanceofnature

 

Little doubt that we're heading for a Nina, but strength is still very much up in the air.  The "spring barrier" can complicate ENSO forecasts, so I'd be a little cautious on predicting strength right now.

72-73 strong Nino flipped to strong Nina in 73-74.  1997-98 also had a huge flip in 1998-99, so there is some precedent, but again, would be cautious for now.

[westMJim]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

We should prob start a brand new ENSO thread for this year...I personally think this has to be one of the biggest flips in ENSO states in my lifetime.  If anyone has any stats on this it would be welcomed...soo, the CFSv2 is suggesting that by the Autumn season the forecasted La Nina could end up becoming a Strong one.  

This would mean we go from a Strong Nino into a Strong La Nina...would this mean the GL's go from a record warm winter to a Record cold winter next season???? 

In looking at El Nino and La Nina records going back to 1950 there have only been 3 times it has gone from a strong or very strong El Nino to a strong La Nina in the same year. There are several more from strong El Nino to weak La Nina. The 3 winter season that has happened since 1950 are 1972/73 strong El Nion to 1973/74 strong La Nina. 1987/88 strong La Nino to 1988/89 strong La Nina and 1997/98 very strong El Nino to a 1998/99 strong El Nina. At Grand Rapids the results are not what you would expect. In the 1972/73 the mean temperature during meteorological winter was 25.5° the snowfall for the season was 65.5” in the next winter 1973/74 the mean for meteorological winter was 24.3° and the total snowfall for the season was 64.4” In the 1987/88 El Nino the meteorological winter mean was 24.3 and the seasons snowfall was 64.2” in the 1988/89 La Nina the meteorological winter mean was 25.8° and the seasons snowfall was 62.2” in the 1997/98 that had a very strong El Nino the meteorological winter mean was 31.5° and the seasons snowfall was 59.8” and in the 1998/99 strong La Nina the meteorological winter mean was 28.6° and that season had 76.7” of snowfall. The current meteorological winter mean at Grand Rapids, Michigan is 27.3 and the current average snowfall for a season is 77.7”

 

25 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Little doubt that we're heading for a Nina, but strength is still very much up in the air.  The "spring barrier" can complicate ENSO forecasts, so I'd be a little cautious on predicting strength right now.

72-73 strong Nino flipped to strong Nina in 73-74.  1997-98 also had a huge flip in 1998-99, so there is some precedent, but again, would be cautious for now.

I would tend to agree with not knowing how strong the flip will be.  Also not all strong El Nino's are warm and not all La Nina's are cold. As for Grand Rapids the 3 times have had less than average snowfall for all but the 1998/99 winter season 

[Andie]

38 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Little doubt that we're heading for a Nina, but strength is still very much up in the air.  The "spring barrier" can complicate ENSO forecasts, so I'd be a little cautious on predicting strength right now.

72-73 strong Nino flipped to strong Nina in 73-74.  1997-98 also had a huge flip in 1998-99, so there is some precedent, but again, would be cautious for now.

I remember those winters. 
We saw snow or deep freezes in No. Texas.  

[Andie]

Texas Ranches have been ravaged by wildfires and are facing a very long Recovery

State officials estimate tens of thousands of cattle were killed in blazes burning across more than 1 million acres.

It’s going to be rough recovering.
It’s planting season soon but will take the season to harvest any feed. Outside farms and ranches are pitching in and shipping hay and feed for surviving herds.  
Ranchers are digging trenches and burying entire herds.  

What remains is when will it rain!?

[Andie]

https://www.wnd.com/2024/03/everything-gone-wildfire-ravages-americas-cattle-center/
 

They will rebuild / stronger. 

 

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday was 54/38 that 54 was the 5th warmest for the date and the 38 was the 2nd warmest minimum for the date. There was no rain/snowfall. The sun was out 78% of the possible time. For today the average H/L is 39/23 the record high of 72 was set in 1983 the record low of -9 was set in 1943 the wettest was 1.32” in 1941. The most snowfall is 5.0” in 2007 the most on the ground is 19” in 2014. Last year the H/L was 34/28 and there was 2” of snowfall. For the season so far Grand Rapids has only had 40.3" of snowfall that is -28.5" at Lansing 24.8" -18.6" and at Muskegon 49.7" -29.1"

 

[Tom]

Local wind gusts up in the higher terrain: 71mph in Winslow, 62mph at the Grand Canyon...down in the valley, it's not to bad...a cooler day ahead in the low 70's but with ample sunshine it'll be mighty fine!  Happy Sunday Funday!

[Clinton]

Warm and very windy in conditions here today, slight chance of rain tomorrow and a better one later in the week.  I hope we get it because the drought conditions are beginning to intensify again.

[Andie]

It’s incredibly dry. 
If it keeps this up Spring will be fire season.  

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, Andie said:

It’s incredibly dry. 
If it keeps this up Spring will be fire season.  

It's concerning on a large scale.  Texas, other parts of the US, Canada, etc.  Need moisture soon.

[Tom]

You know it’s a rare day in the wx dept when ORD is warmer than here…72F at ORD

 

[Hawkeye]

Cedar Rapids has soared to 79º ahead of the front.  Monday's rain needs to happen.  Models are split between just light rain and a decent soak.

[Clinton]

More record heat in western MO today, it's currently 79 at my place.

 St Joseph current temp 81 record was 80 (1983) -Kirksville current temp 78 record was 70 (1955) -Sedalia current temp 80 record was 70 (2021) -Olathe current temp 77 record was 69 (2021) - P-Hill current temp 78 record was 73 (2008)

 

@NWSKansasCity

 

Kansas City just hit 80 degrees! It's the 5th earliest 80 degree day in KC's 136-year period of record.

[Andie]

No end in sight yet.  
Dry and windy conditions. 
80* today.  This simply is not normal.  

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/texas-smokehouse-creek-wildfire-fire-weather-warnings-return

[Andie]

6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

It's concerning on a large scale.  Texas, other parts of the US, Canada, etc.  Need moisture soon.

This will be so hard on crops.  There can’t be much moisture in the soil.   

[Hawkeye]

We did it!  Cedar Rapids hit 80º today.

[Andie]

I need a realistic forecast.  
Any idea when North Texas will see rain.   
Just checking as I’ve begun water as Spring is pretty much on the doorstep and everything is dry and rock hard.  

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

We did it!  Cedar Rapids hit 80º today.

Earliest on record by far.  Previous earliest 80 degree high at Cedar Rapids was March 16.

[Andie]

It looks like 2 more days in low 80’s the a week in mid- to high 70’s. 
Still no rain in site.   
Anyone care to weigh in on that?

[westMJim]

New record highs were set at Muskegon 71 and Holland 68 yesterday. The high at Grand Rapids was the 3^rd warmest for any March 2^nd

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 66/38 there was no rain/snowfall. The highest wind was 33 MPH out of the SE. The sun was out 85% of the possible time. For today the average H/L is 39/24 the record high of 66 was set in 1983 and the record low of -3 was set in 1948. The wettest was 1.36” in 1985 there was 4.6” of snowfall that day. The most snowfall is 8.0” in 1900. The most on the ground is 19” in 2014. Last year the H/L was 47/26.

[westMJim]

Some weather history for southern lower Michigan

1912: Subzero cold continues during one of the coldest months of March on record across Lower Michigan. Muskegon sets a record low of 2 below zero on this morning, during a spell of five straight days below zero.

March 4 has seen many snowstorms across Southeast Michigan. Snowstorms have occurred in 1895, 1899, 1900, 1985, 1999, 2003, and 2008. Many of these storms rated in the top 25 heaviest snowstorms including:

Detroit in 1900 received 16.1 inches of snow for 3rd heaviest snowstorm
Detroit 1895 12.3 10th
Detroit 1899 11.4 15th

Flint 1999 9.1 14th

Saginaw 1985 12.0 16th

Elsewhere in the US

1960, Eastern Massachusetts’ most significant March snowstorm occurred on March 4-5th, 1960. The storm produced record 24-hour snowfall totals of 27.2 inches at Blue Hill Observatory, 17.7 inches at Worcester, and 16.6 inches at Boston. Winds gusted to 70 mph.

1971, A potent storm system blasted the northeastern U.S. on March 3-5th, 1971. The barometric pressure dropped to 28.36 inches at Worcester, MA, for the lowest pressure recorded at that location.

1983, Brownsville, Texas, recorded a high of 100 degrees, the earliest the city has ever hit the century mark.