May 2024 Pacific Northwest Weather

[T-Town]

51 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Exactly my sentiment.   

Fortunately the vibe on here is one of acceptance and understanding of opposing preferences and points of view. 

[Phil]

6 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Meanwhile the GFS/GEFS has shifted back in a troughier direction. But still a lot of spread.

The 00z EPS comes out way too late these days, but will be interested to see it in the morning.

I think it’s the PNW’s turn in the hot seat, even if it’s short-lived. We’re running a +7.1 departure for the month so far.

It’s only fair.

[Slushy Inch]

Wow looking at recent euro runs. The rest of the month could be mostly warm and sunny. Maybe we can get some undercutting troughs to trigger some thunderstorms.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Wow looking at recent euro runs. The rest of the month could be mostly warm and sunny. Maybe we can get some undercutting troughs to trigger some thunderstorms.

FWIW, I’m skeptical of the high amplitude ridge on the OP Euro. It’s on the extreme end of the EPS mean and lacks support from other guidance. 

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

FWIW, I’m skeptical of the high amplitude ridge on the OP Euro. It’s on the extreme end of the EPS mean and lacks support from other guidance. 

I don't buy it either.    There will be a compromise or cave to the GFS.    The 06Z control run looked much more like the GFS at day 6.

[Slushy Inch]

36 minutes ago, Phil said:

FWIW, I’m skeptical of the high amplitude ridge on the OP Euro. It’s on the extreme end of the EPS mean and lacks support from other guidance. 

True. EPS also has troughing return end of month. So maybe it won’t be that sunny.

[Groundhog]

Seems we go through this every May-September: Models show a ridge in the 1-5 day range. Models diverge on day 6-10 with the ridge rebuilding vs. Nominal troughing. July-Sep the ridge rebuilding dominates the solutions. The cold and warm camps are set. Least I pretend to be neutral, warm n’ dry from May-September is fine by me. 

 

[RaleighHillsRunner]

7 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Meanwhile the GFS/GEFS has shifted back in a troughier direction. But still a lot of spread.

The 00z EPS comes out way too late these days, but will be interested to see it in the morning.

After this weekend looks more or less climo with a baby trough tucked in there no? I would be totally on board with 70s/partly cloudy and some light showers every few days.

[TT-SEA]

51 minutes ago, RaleighHillsRunner said:

After this weekend looks more or less climo with a baby trough tucked in there no? I would be totally on board with 70s/partly cloudy and some light showers every few days.

I agree... but 70s would be warmer than normal at this point still.    

[MossMan]

What a lovely IPhone weather app forecast!

Hopefully it’s accurate for once. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, RaleighHillsRunner said:

After this weekend looks more or less climo with a baby trough tucked in there no? I would be totally on board with 70s/partly cloudy and some light showers every few days.

Climo is still highs in the 60s but I agree that wouldn’t be too bad. The showery days would be cooler with a pattern like that too.

[Cascadia_Wx]

00z EPS. A lot of spread but the mean looks much cooler than the OP. Control run is similar though, so we’ll see.

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

What a lovely IPhone weather app forecast!

Hopefully it’s accurate for once. 

I have rain on Monday! 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Sunny and clear this morning with a low of 43. Up to 56 now. Hoping we can avoid our first 80 until tomorrow but we’ll see.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like the 12Z GFS is taking a step towards the ECMWF next week.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Back in NOLA and will be waiting for our flight. Layover in SLC then to PDX and home to Springfield late tonight.

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

I think it’s the PNW’s turn in the hot seat, even if it’s short-lived. We’re running a +7.1 departure for the month so far.

It’s only fair.

Definitely the East's turn. It's been a classic spring pattern for severe weather in the middle of the country, that's for sure.

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

I don't buy it either.    There will be a compromise or cave to the GFS.    The 06Z control run looked much more like the GFS at day 6.

And now the 12z GFS is looking much more like the Euro.

[Cascadia_Wx]

7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Definitely the East's turn. It's been a classic spring pattern for severe weather in the middle of the country, that's for sure.

The last two weeks have been cool, sure. But we’ve been pretty close to average out here for the spring as a whole. A little above average in many spots.

[Cascadia_Wx]

6 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

And now the 12z GFS is looking much more like the Euro.

The 7-10 day heatwave thing is definitely happening. Which will mean another above average month here. I’m more interested in what happens afterward now, toward the last week to ten days of May.

[RentonHill]

Daily animal update

 

 

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, RentonHill said:

Daily animal update

 

 

 

That’s cool to see a moose. I didn’t know they lived as far west as Twisp.

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

That’s cool to see a moose. I didn’t know they lived as far west as Twisp.

Was a surprise for us to see them as well. We have at least one bull and maybe two cows that we've had come through each of the last two years. I will be very interested to see if we see any calves this year. 

Now lets just hope the Grizzlies dont make it this far...

[Cascadia_Wx]

14 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Was a surprise for us to see them as well. We have at least one bull and maybe two cows that we've had come through each of the last two years. I will be very interested to see if we see any calves this year. 

Now lets just hope the Grizzlies dont make it this far...

I recently heard they’re planning to reintroduce grizzlies into the North Cascades. Although I don’t know how often they’re known to wander down into populated areas.

[TT-SEA]

38 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

And now the 12z GFS is looking much more like the Euro.

The usual model dance.   Now the 12Z ECMWF will completely cave to the 00Z GFS.

[the_convergence_zone]

30 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The last two weeks have been cool, sure. But we’ve been pretty close to average out here for the spring as a whole. A little above average in many spots.

I know it’s not the case farther south or even other parts of WA but I’ll remember this spring for how dry it is despite the relatively cool temps and cloudiness. Fortunately we got so much rain in January and February that it’s not as big of a deal as it could have been.

[Cascadia_Wx]

19 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

I know it’s not the case farther south or even other parts of WA but I’ll remember this spring for how dry it is despite the relatively cool temps and cloudiness. Fortunately we got so much rain in January and February that it’s not as big of a deal as it could have been.

Luckily records aren’t kept based on individual perception.

[Front Ranger]

59 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The last two weeks have been cool, sure. But we’ve been pretty close to average out here for the spring as a whole. A little above average in many spots.

Not bad coming out of a Nino regime. 2015 and 2016 were much warmer.

Combine that with the January blast and there's a lot to be thankful for already in 2024.

[Front Ranger]

54 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Was a surprise for us to see them as well. We have at least one bull and maybe two cows that we've had come through each of the last two years. I will be very interested to see if we see any calves this year. 

Now lets just hope the Grizzlies dont make it this far...

 

38 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I recently heard they’re planning to reintroduce grizzlies into the North Cascades. Although I don’t know how often they’re known to wander down into populated areas.

I know there's a small population of Grizzlies in northeast WA. Apparently the last one seen in the northern Cascades was 1996, but wouldn't surprise me if a few have wandered over from Canada in recent years.

[RentonHill]

Gemsembles are ROCK SOLID

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Gemsembles are ROCK SOLID

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF looking more like the 00Z GFS than the 12Z GFS did... so predictable.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oregonlive has been pimping stories about the Grizzly reintroduction in North Cascades. Apparently they are going to reintroduce 25 bears into the ecosystem… 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oregonlive has been pimping stories about the Grizzly reintroduction in North Cascades. Apparently they are going to reintroduce 25 bears into the ecosystem… 

Test run before they reintroduce 50 into SILVER FALLS STATE PARK, Andrew.

[bainbridgekid]

12z GFS for Sunday looks a lot like 4/21/24 with early afternoon highs in the 70's and a sudden temp drop into the low-mid 50's and rain by late afternoon/early evening for Puget Sound.

It spits out 72 in Seattle at 2 PM and 51 in Everett by 5 pm.

[BLI snowman]

29 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Gemsembles are ROCK SOLID

The status of the late week airmass and model battle could very well be a microcosm of how our entire summer unfolds. Our fate hangs in the balance.

[seattleweatherguy]

1 minute ago, bainbridgekid said:

12z GFS for Sunday looks a lot like 4/21/24 with early afternoon highs in the 70's and a sudden temp drop into the low-mid 50's and rain by late afternoon.

It spits out 72 in Seattle at 2 PM and 51 in Everett by 5 pm.

Might be in Oregon on Sunday does the GFS show the same thing for them too?

[bainbridgekid]

6 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said:

Might be in Oregon on Sunday does the GFS show the same thing for them too?

Not really. Almost a clipper type marine push that comes in from the NW so it mainly impacts Seattle North.

GFS also puts a sort of deformation/convergence band North of Seattle with ~0.6" of rain for Everett Sunday night. Euro is also much less dramatic and pretty dry though.

 

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

12z GFS for Sunday looks a lot like 4/21/24 with early afternoon highs in the 70's and a sudden temp drop into the low-mid 50's and rain by late afternoon.

It spits out 72 in Seattle at 2 PM and 51 in Everett by 5 pm.

12Z ECMWF... high temps on Sunday and temps at 5 p.m.

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

9 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The status of the late week airmass and model battle could very well be a microcosm of how our entire summer unfolds. Our fate hangs in the balance.

I’m glad someone gets it.