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October 2020 Observations and Discussion


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Attm, its a beautiful sunny day w temps in the 50s, but humidity levels are at 100%, so, alotta dew out there from what I am seeing. Warmth will prevail into the weekend b4 much chillier air arrives by the end of next week.

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Taken at 12:30PM, on the south side of Ankeny Iowa.  At least 6" on the ground.

As seasons transition I'm honoring those who serve the public good through service in law enforcement and fire & rescue. Acting as a shield between us and harm. Some giving their lives serving and

Pounding at DSM airport!! .3 to .4 on snowboards ,, probably can muster a wet inch before sunrise.

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21 hours ago, Bryan1117 said:

I got confirmation last night that I did test positive for COVID-19 (from my test last Friday). I feel like I might be on the mend from this thing though, as I have felt much better the last 24 hours and my sense of taste is starting to come back. My sense of smell is still not there yet, however the constant headaches and sore throat are relaxing a bit, and I have a dry cough that is similar to the ones I get with a cold - nothing worse than that. 

I can't wait to get out of the house though, I am usually always on the go so it has been a rough last couple of weeks being stuck at home. Thankful my new job has me constantly busy answering e-mails and phone calls, so that's helped keep me busy.

Covid is a beast. Hang in there.

 

Btw: Good luck on your new job.

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Wow. About to experience one of the greatest single day temp swings of my life. Hit 35F this morning and forecast to soar to 78F this afternoon. Cannot honestly remember a 43 degree swing around the Mitt. #desertconditions in #2020

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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One last hurrah?

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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It suddenly got smokey out there when I was hanging out on my deck and the smell of smoke was evident.  I'm going to spark up the Weber and cook up some chicken thighs.  Enjoying these last few days of Indian Summer for this stretch of October.

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1 minute ago, Tom said:

It suddenly got smokey out there when I was hanging out on my deck and the smell of smoke was evident.  I'm going to spark up the Weber and cook up some chicken thighs.  Enjoying these last few days of Indian Summer for this stretch of October.

Doin sirloins later on the Weber! I'm already at 80°!

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

A -WPO usually suggests a cold and stormy eastern CONUS in fall and winter.  It typically means the west PAC is active with tropical systems.

A -WPO with a mid-range -AO/NAO couplet or weakly oscillating Greenland block is a goldmine for all of us. Gets the "classic" blue norther look over the CONUS vs the weaker blasts that swing out east.

Modeling is actually starting to revert back to this look, finally and with enough October left that it doesn't make me look as stupid as I thought it would.

Hard to speak my thoughts vs models and get it done to everyone else's satisfaction. Lol. The end of this month is going back to cold like it should have been.

2 more days actually before the fun begins.

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It's already 73.9*F. Our forecasted high is 76, I think 80 is very attainable.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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22 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

A -WPO with a mid-range -AO/NAO couplet or weakly oscillating Greenland block is a goldmine for all of us. Gets the "classic" blue norther look over the CONUS vs the weaker blasts that swing out east.

Modeling is actually starting to revert back to this look, finally and with enough October left that it doesn't make me look as stupid as I thought it would.

Hard to speak my thoughts vs models and get it done to everyone else's satisfaction. Lol. The end of this month is going back to cold like it should have been.

2 more days actually before the fun begins.

Seems to be alot signs pointing towards a major storm at the beginning of Nov, which means there is to much time for things to change again.

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

It suddenly got smokey out there when I was hanging out on my deck and the smell of smoke was evident.  I'm going to spark up the Weber and cook up some chicken thighs.  Enjoying these last few days of Indian Summer for this stretch of October.

Enjoy it man! I'm smoking two pork butts starting tonight on my Pit Boss smoker. We are having a birthday party for my oldest daughter who turned 7 already! Should be perfect weather for it! 

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4 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

A -WPO with a mid-range -AO/NAO couplet or weakly oscillating Greenland block is a goldmine for all of us. Gets the "classic" blue norther look over the CONUS vs the weaker blasts that swing out east.

Modeling is actually starting to revert back to this look, finally and with enough October left that it doesn't make me look as stupid as I thought it would.

Hard to speak my thoughts vs models and get it done to everyone else's satisfaction. Lol. The end of this month is going back to cold like it should have been.

2 more days actually before the fun begins.

Seems like there's always a see-saw battle between the tropics and continental airmasses this time of year. At least until the tropical dies down.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Got the charcoals goin as the sun sets behind the neighbors house. Way nice out. Very summerlike. I'm close to 80 yet tomorrow and Sunday.....and then 60s mon-thu.....and mid 50s next Friday and after. No freeze mention yet with forecast lows in the mid 30s but thats a ways out so we'll see how it plays out. Have a great Friday night, peeps!

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Quite the shift on 12Z Euro.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Here are some pictures from my trip to Houghton Lake today. The color was better on US 131 but hard to stop. But all in all did have a nice day. The temperature at Houghton Lake was 66 but on the way home it jumped up to 77.

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12 hours ago, gabel23 said:

Enjoy it man! I'm smoking two pork butts starting tonight on my Pit Boss smoker. We are having a birthday party for my oldest daughter who turned 7 already! Should be perfect weather for it! 

Sounds delicious!  I'm sure your neighbors will be salivating from the smell of it...enjoy the great weather my friend!

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I zonked out way early yesterday so I'm up wayyyy to early this morning....but I'm not complaining as it's a wonderful summery morning with a stiff SW breeze and a temp in the upper 60's (67F).  Enjoying my coffee while flipping through the models and a nice breeze flowing through the house.  Gotta enjoy the simple things in life!

 

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As much as I love this warm weather we have been having lately, I'm afraid it'll be a distant memory later next week and into Week 3 of this month.  What we are about to see is complete wx porn if your a wx enthusiast.  We may literally go from Summer to Winter for our friends in the Plains and Upper MW.  Ol' Man Winter is going to show up early and often up that way and I got a funny feeling @Fargo is going to be seeing his first snows along with possibly those up in Minny and quite possibly our NE friends (who need the moisture).  We'll see, but the immense atmospheric response to the high lat blocking and early build up of arctic air and snow in Canada, is showing a clear sign of heading down south.  The last few runs of the 00z EPS is sniffing out more and more ensemble members showing a ribbon of snow across the northern tier.  In fact, last nights 00z run is showing the seasons first weenie run of the season followed by a shot of very cold air for October standards.  

 

It's very fascinating to me to see nature lay down the framework up north and it looks to me like it is setting the stage for an early onslaught of cold.  Too early for this???  Here is the latest snow cover/depth across North America...Archipelago and NE Canada is already in full fledged winter mode with blizzards targeting that part of the world.  What happens next is intriguing.

 

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Over the next 10 days, we will see a massive vortex spin up into a major winter storm in central Canada (likely being a key Long Term Long Wave Trough) and a re-occurring theme this season.  Snow cover will expand and temps will crash across Canada right before the gates are opened to flood into the U.S.  "If you build it, thy will come"...I'm noticing a common denominator over the last several years, whereby, Canada is seeing Winter come early for them and for parts of the U.S. in the Autumn.  Winters have been sorta lame recently for the most part...but will this change this year???  A lot going on this year....and....why not???  It's 2020.

 

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Where's the good news in all of this???  Well, once you have Winter clash with late Summer wx your almost undoubtedly going to see atmospheric fireworks.  I'm glad to report that ALL the models are trending wetter for our central members.  Let's keep this going.

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Now that the tropics have abated again and the storm is absorbed into the stream, its interesting to see the pattern go right back to slamming cold at us in Niña fashion.

I'm glad. I didn't want to stay in boring weather til November. 

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Holy hell, a 2" EPS snow mean..?

Right now here, it is clear. 37.4*F. This is the 2nd to last day of Fall for the foreseeable future.

>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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Cloudy and 68 here at this time. My wife and me went on a little road trip yesterday to Houghton Lake. The color is very good along 131. I got off at US 10 and went east to M 66. The color is not a good east of 131 but there is still a lot of color. West of Houghton Lake there are areas the look like it has gotten very cold and the leaves show it. We bought a couple of Subways and had lunch at a little park on the lake. It was too windy and cool outside so we had our lunch in the car. The temperature at the lake was 64 and very windy. On the way home the temperature rose to 70 just west of 127 and was up to 74 at Cadillac and up to 77 at my house. The color this year was much better than last year and it is at least a week or more earlier.

A couple of more pictures

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1 minute ago, CentralNebWeather said:

12Z GFS for fun. 

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I want to say "why am I looking at a snow map on Oct 10th?" but truth be told, even SMI scores the occasional pre-Halloween legit snowstorm. Those sticking in my memory are '89, '97, and '06. So it should be "nothing" for those N and W of here to see.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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- Its a little humid outside under mostly cloudy skies. I thought I would be done saying this by now, but, guess not, so, here it is.......DEW is at 65F.

- Clouds from Delta will make it here imby, but no rain. That will sweep on south of SEMI and be a complete miss. Mid Atlantic States will get a ton of rainfall from Delta.

- Big time chill arriving by the end of next week.

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As for any snowfall I am seeing on models, no snow pls for my area. I think I'll wait till Thanksgiving week and or afterwards. Anything sooner almost, always seems to jeopardize the Winter ahead.

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Oct 2018 had 4 inches in Lincoln, Oct 2009 was also cold and snowy. Oct 2016 was very mild. Bring on the snow, I'll take my chances. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"

2018-19: 55.5"

2019-20: 17.6"  

2020-21: 2.9" (so far)

 

Average: 25.9"

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Insanely brilliant colors in my area today. Couple days ago we were at 25% color but suddenly we are >50% and I'd say entered a 10 day period of peak colors. About 10+ days early and the most vivid in my 18 years here. Some stretches of 94 rivaled what you might see across NMI. Have to presume hitting the freeze mark multiple times is the main driver ( for a rare change).

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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9 hours ago, westMJim said:

Cloudy and 68 here at this time. My wife and me went on a little road trip yesterday to Houghton Lake. The color is very good along 131. I got off at US 10 and went east to M 66. The color is not a good east of 131 but there is still a lot of color. West of Houghton Lake there are areas the look like it has gotten very cold and the leaves show it. We bought a couple of Subways and had lunch at a little park on the lake. It was too windy and cool outside so we had our lunch in the car. The temperature at the lake was 64 and very windy. On the way home the temperature rose to 70 just west of 127 and was up to 74 at Cadillac and up to 77 at my house. The color this year was much better than last year and it is at least a week or more earlier.

A couple of more pictures

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Beautiful, thanks for sharing.

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Fall colors on the farm. The purple ash are probably as nice as they have ever been. Hopefully the emerald ash borers don’t kill them. I had to cut down another type of our ash tree earlier this summer as it was infested with that borer and it was dying. Just perfect weather for pretty colors this fall and it should last longer too. I like to take photos earlier and later in the day when the softer reddish sunshine enhances the colors.

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Well, its a happy October here. Sold the house as week and moving to the Northwoods of WI for good. Can't wait. Staying at the cottagebfor the next 5 mo. Here's to living in a snow belt! With 2 new 900 Ace's! BRING ON WINTER!!!

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3 hours ago, Madtown said:

Fall in the northwoods!

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Welcome back Madtown!  Congrats on the sale and the move up north....How's the fishing been?  

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Great photos.  I won't be seeing much of that around here this fall.

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season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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MAJOR Southeast wind this morning. Like the debris flying type of wind, gusting to 45mph. 59.4*F. Today will be the last day in the 70s for the season.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"),

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 8.8"            Coldest Low: 9*F (11/17)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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9 hours ago, Madtown said:

Well, its a happy October here. Sold the house as week and moving to the Northwoods of WI for good. Can't wait. Staying at the cottage for the next 5 mo. Here's to living in a snow belt! With 2 new 900 Ace's! BRING ON WINTER!!!

Congrats! My sleds weren't new, but the excitement was fantastic when I made a similar move in Sept of '90. It's a great feeling. Exactly 2 months after the move we got slammed with 15" of concrete mixer stuff. Will never forget. #goodtimes

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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10 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

MAJOR Southeast wind this morning. Like the debris flying type of wind, gusting to 45mph. 59.4*F. Today will be the last day in the 70s for the season.

I see per my AFD even here we are expecting "windy showers" with tomorrow's CF passage. Definitely a change from summer rain events.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Gonna get seriously flipped on our temps again.

GRR:

Quote

Latest ensemble numerical guidance continues to suggest that high
temps by Friday and Saturday will struggle to reach the upper
40`s to perhaps lower 50`s.

 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Woke up to 63 degrees with a 61 dew, low clouds and strong south winds. Rather humid. What a weird day it’s going to be. Red flag warnings with dangerous fire conditions as the humidity tanks and the wind increases to 40 mph. Tonight a cold front comes through with winds potentially gusting to 50 mph out of the northwest. The leaves on the trees will take a beating today and tonight. Just a typical day on the Great Plains. 

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10 hours ago, Madtown said:

Fall in the northwoods!

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Excellent pics!

Did you built your house on the 900 acres or was already there. Either way, enjoy your new property. Looks awesome.

Btw: Tbh, the lake there w the reflection of the water and trees reminds me of the movie "Friday the 13th" w Jason. 

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