November 2014 Observations and Discussion

[Money]

Yeah it is odd. Snows looks (on this run) to be in W.WI - E.MN and N.IA--- the thing that gets me is 985MB low at 168 near Green Bay and no HP to the NW but a 997 low near Bismarck,ND. I know the cold air is missing-- but 997 low as mentioned just seems odd.

 

It draws in it's own cold air it seems. Like everywhere around the low at HR 168 has 850 mb temps below 0. I'm not sure about surface temps, but I don't know many lows that draw in their own cold air with really no HP to be found. 

[East Dubzz]

I know it's really too early to actually care what it says, but the the Euro show any ice?

[Money]

For some reason your maps don't work grizzcoat, I think you need to upload it and post it instead of just adding the link. (wxbell changed that last year) 

[Grizzcoat]

thanks-- was wondering about that.

[Grizzcoat]

[Money]

Thanks grizz, how does the snow look between HR 48 and 72? 

[Grizzcoat]

[Geos]

Time to get used to the bitter cold mornings again. Currently 9° here.

[Money]

Couple big snow producers on the 6z GFS ensembles for IA/MN

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_6z/f180.html

[Money]

Clipper:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2014111712/nam4km_asnow_us_19.png

[gosaints]

long term looks active.  question obviously is the amount of cold air available.  weekend doenst look good

[GDR]

[gosaints]

Couple big snow producers on the 6z GFS ensembles for IA/MN

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_6z/f180.html

Definetly looking like a snowpack remover this weekend...

[GDR]

Yeah I agree with you Gosaints not much snow pack will be left especially iowa and Illinois.

[Money]

OP GFS takes a 985 L over Milwaukee at HR 153. No snow/high pressure to be found though. Temps get about 40 in S. WI and about 50 in Chicago 

[Geos]

Looking forward to the Clipper to raise the monthly snow total up.

 

 

Lake Michigan looked like it did last January with the "steam" rising off the surface ~ but it's only November!

 

 

 

Let's freeze that lake over solid this winter!

 

---

Hard to imagine the cold will be nowhere in the area this weekend.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

OP GFS takes a 985 L over Milwaukee at HR 153. No snow/high pressure to be found though. Temps get about 40 in S. WI and about 50 in Chicago 

 

Thankfully this is the storm just before the big Thanksgiving one we've been looking at, if this first one is stronger, it may actually help to push the baroclinic zone further south for the next storm.

[Money]

and then a secondary LP system develops in Iowa and moves across northern IL and Wisconsin again....

[Tom]

I wonder what the average snow cover for the U.S. for this time of year is.

Just saw a tweet by JB saying that 33% snow cover is normal on Christmas Day, so today's 50.4% snow cover is outstanding!

[gosaints]

Have a feeling we will see alot of scenarios for the weekend storm in the next couple days.  Lots of energy in play at the 500mb level

[Geos]

and then a secondary LP system develops in Iowa and moves across northern IL and Wisconsin again....

 

I think the chance that it repeats a similar path is pretty slim. That first storm will likely send a lobe of colder air back southward.

[gosaints]

I think the chance that it repeats a similar path is pretty slim. That first storm will likely send a lobe of colder air back southward.

very well could happen.  or maybe a phase happens with the first system?

[Money]

GFS actually shows 3-5 inches of snow for E. NE and W. IA along with 1-3 in MN once the 2nd system passes through. 

[Money]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_165_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

[gosaints]

GFS actually shows 3-5 inches of snow for E. NE and W. IA along with 1-3 in MN once the 2nd system passes through. 

Everything is very mucked up on the GFS.  Think it will be a couple days before a clear picture is drawn

[Geos]

very well could happen.  or maybe a phase happens with the first system?

 

Yeah maybe it could phase with the northern jet.

 

That second wave on the OP GFS is fairly weak. It is slightly colder over southern WI, but still in the 30s.

[Tom]

00z Euro ensembles are not looking warm for Thanksgiving week like the GFS is showing.  I agree with Gosaints that there is too much energy with this system and the possibility of this phasing and generating some of its own cold air is on the table.

[Money]

Tom, how do the Euro ensembles look for this storm? Solutions all over the place or do they have a mainly rain storm?

[Tom]

Tom, how do the Euro ensembles look for this storm? Solutions all over the place or do they have a mainly rain storm?

They are pretty much all over the map...

[NEJeremy]

Yuck, the majority of those don't even show a lot of snow unless you are way north. It looks like there are all of 2 members that show more than 6" in a healthy deformation band from Kansas and on to the northeast. Not liking the looks of this. Our local NWS mentioned briefly maybe some freezing rain on Saturday night.

[Money]

UKIE HR 144:

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

 

Notice there is no LP system or anything in the Dakotas and instead it has a high pressure system (although it's weak) 

[Money]

GGEM HR 144:

 

[Money]

GGEM keeps it northern stream dominant. 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014111712/gem_T850_us_28.png

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014111712/gem_T850_us_29.png

[Geos]

GGEM is colder than the GFS. Does not bring 40s up into the region at all. Marginal temps from what I can tell from Weatherbell maps.

[Money]

fml Cardinals just traded for Jayson Heyward ( 

[Geos]

Temps in the teens still at this hour. Now it's clouding up and light snow showers are starting to form in the area.

[Money]

Holy . Euro has a 972 over GB at hr 168

[Tom]

The temp at ORD was just 19F, now it dropped to 17F...I think the official high will be in the low 20's at midnight but temps starting to drop and winds howling out of the WNW.  I think tonight we will break the 111 year old record low back in 1880 with a predicted low of 8F!

[Money]

How do the maps look on the Euro tom?

[Tom]

How do the maps look on the Euro tom?

Stopped loading at 90 HR....