November 2014 Observations and Discussion

[Money]

GGEM is completely different compared to the GFS for the 2nd clipper taking it into W/NW IL

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/135_100.gif

[james1976]

When does GGEM, come out?

[Money]

GGEM probably shows 3-5 inches of snow with that 2nd clipper. 11 MM=0.43 QPF and then you have this on the next frame with some additional totals added on:

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/136_100.gif

[james1976]

GGEM probably shows 3-5 inches of snow with that 2nd clipper. 11 MM=0.43 QPF and then you have this on the next frame with some additional totals added on:

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/136_100.gif

Where? Thats a mess to read. LOL

[Money]

MN/WI/MI most likely. Stays too warm in IA. 

[Tom]

00z GGEM through Saturday....coming in colder.  GGEM has a cold bias though, so take it FWIW.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

GGEM probably shows 3-5 inches of snow with that 2nd clipper. 11 MM=0.43 QPF and then you have this on the next frame with some additional totals added on:

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/136_100.gif

 

I've seen some models take these storms, esp the 3rd one, to our south even, so I don't mind where we sit, some models south, some north, but am kinda concerned we find a way to get passed every direction and end up with pointless bare ground when the arctic air hits.

[Money]

GGEM at HR 144:

 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/495_100.gif

[james1976]

00z GGEM through Saturday....coming in colder.  GGEM has a cold bias though, so take it FWIW.

True, but GFS is even showing -10 850s pushing south during the day.

[Money]

0z UKMET HR 144

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

[Tom]

00z GGEM has the system on Monday over powered by the arctic HP....digs the snow even farther south.  One of my concerns has we move forward.

[Tom]

However, if this can line up just right hoping the mountain range and develops in the Plains, it could really blossom into a nice system as it heads into the lower lakes and/or OV.  00z GGEM blows up an east coast storm with this system early next week.  Still alot of time to see how this energy is handled along the arctic front.

[Jaycee]

There's our doughnut we know all to well out here. I'd just like to see some snowflakes. Don't really care if it's a dusting. I think we may need to throw in the towel out here with this storm, run after run has given us no precipitation whatsoever from this system. 

[Money]

No one should be giving up on a system that is 6+ days away and at least 3 other systems come before it. 

[Money]

GGEM gets the 540 line down into GA/MS/AL on the 13th. That's cold. 

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_240_0000.gif

[Tom]

GGEM gets the 540 line down into GA/MS/AL on the 13th. That's cold. 

I was just looking at that and I scratch my head....are you kidding me???  GGEM is always over blown on the cold but still, it could get down to freezing down into the southern states!  Historic cold the way its looking.  Source region of the cold, tanking AO, SSW, everything lining up to an incredible arctic outbreak.

[Money]

It actually gets down to the gulf of mexico lol with a 1040 H moving in. Pretty sure that would be record breaking cold. 

[Tom]

T-minus 45 minutes for the 00z Euro...btw, is it just me or has this Autumn been much windier than normal???  Winds are getting pretty gusty out there today and it feels balmy with a temp @ 60F ATM.  Supposed to be a pretty windy week with all these Clippers traversing the region.  Man, you gotta love the wx pattern developing this season and the possibility of where it can go from here is epic.

[Money]

If it wasn't for that arctic high moving in, GGEM would have been one heck of a storm for most of us. 

[Tom]

If it wasn't for that arctic high moving in, GGEM would have been one heck of a storm for most of us. 

Exactly, just need that energy to get out ahead of the main HP so it could cut underneath it and then head east.  The 12z Euro was showing a little sign of this happening and the 00z Control.

[East Dubzz]

Love the sound of rain hitting on the window right now. Peaceful. Much needed after this stressful studying for finals.

[Money]

Euro is different lol

[East Dubzz]

Euro is different lol

One must explain.

[Money]

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2014110400&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=168

[Tom]

Can anyone see the arctic front on this map???  Lol...clash of the air masses is an understatement.  

 

Not much of a system showing up on the Euro this run.  Just a powerful arctic front with some snows for the Upper Midwest.

[East Dubzz]

Interesante.

[Hawkeye]

I got my first rain in three weeks late yesterday(0.16").  I'm looking forward to seeing some more exciting weather.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Early season snows of any significance have been so hard to squeeze out as of late (last 10-20 years).  Doesn't seem to matter the pattern, best one can hope for before December seems to be a slushy inch or so.

[East Dubzz]

I just like that were actually talking anout snow again, as long as this pattern continues.

[james1976]

nothing exciting with 12z GFS, I think we can give up on any real snow next week. Still looks pretty cold though.

[Geos]

I wouldn't kick the snow idea out just because one run doesn't show it. I have a feeling the deep trough will come back on the GFS in a day or two.

[james1976]

well, last few runs havent shown it. keeping it well north. looks like 2 cold blasts though. one this weekend and one early next week.

[Tom]

I wouldn't kick the snow idea out just because one run doesn't show it. I have a feeling the deep trough will come back on the GFS in a day or two.

I concur.  It is common for models to show a system over a week out, lose it, then bring it back a few days later.  It is extremely difficult for the models to analyze the energy way out in the western Pacific and determine how it will interact with the developing trough this weekend into early next week.  I have seen this happen over and over again in the modeling.  Just need to be patient and see how this evolves.  I wouldn't discount snow flying in the air just yet next week.

[Tom]

12z Euro back with a pretty potent system developing over the high Plains on Monday out ahead of the arctic HP.  This is significant as it has the potential to dig and intensify especially on the leading edge of an intense arctic attack.  Just need to see where this storm ejects east of the Rockies.

[Tom]

Wow!  Bingo Front Row!  Wisco gets hammered this run. This is exactly what I was talking about.  It's exciting to see the Euro come back with the a significant system.  Track/intensity still in question but nonetheless, someone is going to get hit hard in the region.  This storm just blossoms near the western Lakes.

[bud2380]

I wish accuweather would get their act together so I could start reviewing the text output.  Tom any idea how much of that snow is from this one storm vs a total over 180 hours?

[Tom]

N MI gets creamed this run with up to 17" of snow!  That would be insane for early November, esp if lake effect kicks in on the back side of the storm.

 

Temps coming in colder mid next week.  If there is even close to a snow pack this deep you can bet these temps will get this cold, especially down stream off the snow pack where there won't be any snow.  Unreal cold.

[Tom]

I wish accuweather would get their act together so I could start reviewing the text output.  Tom any idea how much of that snow is from this one storm vs a total over 180 hours?

It's all [pretty much from one storm...you can shave off a dusting - 1/2" from Sunday's weak disturbance on Sunday in IA.

[Tom]

Up near Green Bay and Travers City, they get nearly 1.0" qpf from this system and temps in the mid 20 temps, 850's between -8C - -12C so the potential for higher ratio snows is on the table exceeding these 10:1 ratio amounts.  A typical mid winter storm system in early November.  Unbelievable.

[james1976]

I just read yesterday actually, on Lezak's blog about how the Euro is more accurate than the GFS when its a week or more out. Maybe Euro is onto something. Dang, that is back at giving me 5" with the center of the cold right over me. Hmmm. Might be a birthday gift for me after all, haha.