November 2014 Observations and Discussion

[Money]

big time cold from about the 13th on 

[Money]

Actually, temps don't get above 30 from the 13th all the way through the end of the run....that's insane for mid November 

[james1976]

Andrew posting some good stuff.
http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/

[james1976]

Actually, temps don't get above 30 from the 13th all the way through the end of the run....that's insane for mid November 

Where you located again?

[Money]

South-Central WI, but it's pretty much sub 30's for everywhere (IA/IL/WI/MN/MI) the entire run.

[Geos]

Hopefully this system can dig further south and bring some snow down with it.

That's pretty crazy cold starting in about 10 days!

 

[Money]

0z GGEM shows the same thing as GFS pretty much. Clipper for this Thursday followed by another clipper Sat/Sun followed by a bigger storm that tries to develop, then another clipper that cuts through WI, and then the cold air behind that. 

[Tom]

I remember this pattern developing like it was yesterday.  Very reminiscent to what happened last year when impulses along the jet stream streaked across the southern fringe of the arctic air boundary.  However, this year's pattern there may be way more phased systems that come out of the Rockies and track cross country.

 

 

[Money]

Tom, what does the GGEM show in terms of snowfall that run? 

[Tom]

Tom, what does the GGEM show in terms of snowfall that run? 

[Jaycee]

http://www.reactiongifs.com/r/thw.gif

 

I'm envying all of you to the east of me right now.

 

EDIT: Also, still pretty great seeing this forum light up again. Missed hearing all of your input. Despite getting missed by this "clipper train", hoping the long-run vouches well for us...   

[Money]

All I gotta say is wow at the Euro.

 

-10 850 mb temps all the way down into southern IL at 11-12 0z 

[East Dubzz]

I could use some snow to cheer me up with how piss poor the Hawks are playing hockey right now.

[Tom]

I could use some snow to cheer me up with how piss poor the Hawks are playing hockey right now.

Right!  They need to snap back into it...so here you go...06z GFS

[East Dubzz]

Would be nice if the GFS could dig a little further south with that clipper, but that's a nixe run for a lot of people, wow! I know the DVN mentioned a chance of some rain/snow mix now, so at least some of the NWS stations are starting to realize the potential for some snow.

[james1976]

Is that system early next week an artic front? or is it a clipper with with the front pushing in behind it?
DMX talking mix potential as well. Is Euro showing this?

[Tom]

Is that system early next week an artic front? or is it a clipper with with the front pushing in behind it?

DMX talking mix potential as well. Is Euro showing this?

Its looks like a piece of energy that rides the arctic front then the "Clipper" really develops over the Lakes.  The 00z Euro explodes the Clipper right over Wisco dumping 4-8".  I gotta say, the 00z Euro tanks the temps next week.  It's going to feel like late January in early November.  With the sun angle about as high as it would be on or about Jan 31st with avg temp at that time of year in the upper 20's!

[Geos]

Right!  They need to snap back into it...so here you go...06z GFS

 

Sweet!

 

Not our region, but this is amazing ~ Columbia, SC gets its earliest snowfall ever!

 

http://www.cnn.com/2014/11/02/us/weather/index.html?hpt=us_c2

[Tom]

12z GFS bringing in the arctic blast earlier on Saturday now...

[WildWisconsinWeather]

12z GFS bringing in the arctic blast earlier on Saturday now...

 

That would be bad, the arctic blast with no snow to show for it.  I think you must like cold more than snow, as you seem to get more excited about the arctic blasts than you do snowstorms.

[Tony]

That would be bad, the arctic blast with no snow to show for it.  I think you must like cold more than snow, as you seem to get more excited about the arctic blasts than you do snowstorms.

Tom is just telling us what he is seeing on the maps. Artic blasts this early in the season usually bring snow with them so I would not worry especially so early on and I can probably talk for most of us in the forum that Tom is a BIG fan of snowstorms. 

[Jaycee]

Sweet!

 

Not our region, but this is amazing ~ Columbia, SC gets its earliest snowfall ever!

 

http://www.cnn.com/2014/11/02/us/weather/index.html?hpt=us_c2

Unbelievable. Not just the fact that they got snow before us, but that it's early NOVEMBER. Not even a dusting either, some places got 2-4" in Central SC. Mind status - blown. Absolutely insane.

[Tom]

Tom is just telling us what he is seeing on the maps. Artic blasts this early in the season usually bring snow with them so I would not worry especially so early on and I can probably talk for most of us in the forum that Tom is a BIG fan of snowstorms. 

You stand correct.  I was just saying before the entire run loaded that the cold was coming earlier on this run.  Obviously I want to see snow but I see the errors in the GFS on this run and the trough is pushing east to fast and therefore the whole situation is offset compared to its 06z/18z runs.

[Tom]

00z Euro Control....

[Tony]

I still think it is way too early for cold and snow especially if winter is going to last all the way through spring. I would love for Novemeber to be more fall like than winter like but if it's going to be cold then I want snow to go with it.

[East Dubzz]

Ahh, gimme some of that 00z Euro Control! Lol

[Tom]

Last nights Euro ensembles continue to drive the cold in the central/eastern CONUS through the extended and continue to pound away at the huge NW NAMER ridge.  BTW, this shot of cold coming next week is coming directly over the Pole from Siberia. Could be the seasons first taste of the PV.

[Tom]

12z GGEM...

[Tony]

From Ryan Maue: Nasty looking for the "Midwest"

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/529242487139733505

[Tony]

Had to post this: 921mb storm is just plain crazy!

 

[james1976]

Had to post this: 921mb storm is just plain crazy!

where is that?

[Geos]

That a crazy strong Aleutian low - 921mb!

 

MKX has this graphic out today.

 

[Tom]

From Ryan Maue: Nasty looking for the "Midwest"

 

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/529242487139733505

That map pretty much displays where the heart of the cold will be this season.  The last few arctic blasts have been in this area and if it will cycle through you can see the pattern that is developing.

 

where is that?

Near the western Aleutian islands, right by the Bearing Sea....this is a very significant cold signal for the end of November.

[Tom]

Had to post this: 921mb storm is just plain crazy!

Those warm waters in the Bearing Seas are certainly going to blow up this storm and future storms that will reside in this area over the next 2 weeks.  The ensembles show no signs of ridging building in this region which translates to cold/storminess down the road for the central/eastern CONUS, quite possibly the central CONUS due to the location of this storm.

[Tom]

You guys are going to like the new 12z Euro run, especially those in the Plains.....

[Tom]

The new Euro run is going towards what the 18z/06z GFS was showing.  It has the storm ride the mountain ranges and develop over the Plains as a 994mb SLP.  However, it looked like it would dig farther south but it eventually heads due east this run into the Midwest/Lakes.  Now, the Euro has problems handling storm systems while crossing the mountains so don't discount any corrections of this systems strength and position down the road.  With all being said, this is certainly a system that bares monitoring to become something bigger than it is now (even though it is a very healthy system for early November).

 

Might have mixing issues near the lake BUT D**n, are you kidding me?  Warning snows for N IA/N IL/S WI/S MI????  Ratios may be a bit lower on the southern end of this snow band.  Very good agreement on the placement of this band this far out between the GFS/Euro.

 

 

Edit: Happy Birthday James!

[clintbeed1993]

You guys are going to like the new 12z Euro run, especially those in the Plains.....

 

After the horrible 12Z GFS run I need something to cheer me up!  Could you post the maps from it Tom?

[clintbeed1993]

Shows no snow for the central plains though.

[Tom]

Shows no snow for the central plains though.

That may change, still over a week away...it may dig farther south...this arctic air may push it, esp with a tanking AO.

[Money]

Euro shows a pretty strong clipper around HR 120 again, right? Def. looks cold enough for snow with it. GGEM was showing the same thing