Money Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 At hr 144 it's 978 in the UP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 At hr 144 it's 978 in the UPmust sit and spin for awhile Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 Sounds like it gets down to 971. My guess is the track continues to creep west Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 As this thing bombs out, my suspicion seems to be working out that anyone to the west and south will get some wrap around snows from this system. If all works out, at least some will get some fresh snow cover. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 As this thing bombs out, my suspicion seems to be working out that anyone to the west and south will get some wrap around snows from this system. If all works out, at least some will get some fresh snow cover.If trends point to the EURO. Some places could experience boderline blizzard conditions Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 Nice good trends today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 If trends point to the EURO. Some places could experience boderline blizzard conditionsMaybe in MN/IA... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 Well if the EURO is right we shouldnt have any lack of moisture the next couple weeks. Thanksgiving storm warm to but also really wet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 Afternoon forecast discussions should be at least more interesting today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 Couple gfs members gets it down to 965 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 It's looking decent for a rainfall of 0.50-1.00" Sunday, although a couple models have a sharp western edge so any shift to the east could leave us drier. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 19, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 Some of the 12z Euro ensembles are showing decent wrap around snows now for MN/IA/IL/WI...here is the 12z Control... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 19, 2014 Report Share Posted November 19, 2014 18Z OP GFS only bringing the 40° line up to about Kenosha this weekend. That's a change from before. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted November 20, 2014 Report Share Posted November 20, 2014 Is this storm part of the LRC? Cuz if it is, someone will get destroyed in January. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 20, 2014 Report Share Posted November 20, 2014 980mb in northern IL on the op GFS. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 20, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 20, 2014 Some big snows in MN and the Northwoods... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 20, 2014 Report Share Posted November 20, 2014 Weatherbell snowfall map. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 20, 2014 Report Share Posted November 20, 2014 How does the ggem look? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 20, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 20, 2014 00z GGEM...takes the southern SLP thru S IN and SE MI, much farther south this run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 20, 2014 Report Share Posted November 20, 2014 00z GGEM...takes the southern SLP thru S IN and SE MI, much farther south this run. Normally in the winter that would be a great track for us and WI to see heavy snow. Too bad the cold air is being chased away this weekend. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 20, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 20, 2014 Normally in the winter that would be a great track for us and WI to see heavy snow. Too bad the cold air is being chased away this weekend.When this storm feature comes around in Cycle 2, I think there will be more blocking than this time around and there may be a whole different story then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 20, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 20, 2014 Th-Snow is going to get the brunt of this storm on this forum, no other way to look at it right now...00z Euro still showing some wrap around snows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 20, 2014 Report Share Posted November 20, 2014 NAM is gonna be way left. Not surprising Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 20, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 20, 2014 12z GGEM takes the track farther SE through S IL to NE IN...its trying to paint a slimmer of snow through S IL/S IN....hmmmm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 20, 2014 Report Share Posted November 20, 2014 Euro a little SE and weaker Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted November 20, 2014 Report Share Posted November 20, 2014 Euro a little SE and weakerTrend today for sure, but not that uncommon at this range Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 20, 2014 Author Report Share Posted November 20, 2014 Much less snow this run... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 GFS showing a secondary low and it's close to catching the colder air... Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 Hmm. GGEM seems like it has a lot of wrap around snows or something. Here is HR 84: Now here is HR 96 Look at where the low is, the 850 line and how much precip is on the backside. Any thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 Here is HR 108: Still showing precip in the WI/MI area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 Here's the 2M temps at 96. Really odd... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014112100/gem_T2m_us_17.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 Here is HR 84 2M temps (and it shows Iowa with 21 MM of QPF which would all be snow between hr 84 and 96) http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014112100/gem_T2m_us_15.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 GGEM looks like it is leaving some sort of trough axis or left over energy behind. Best guess to what it is. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 Someone on American said "00z GGEM is a significant snow maker" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 Someone on American said "00z GGEM is a significant snow maker" Yeah, more than any other model.It's some sort of trough axis/upper level low feature. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 That's... Interesting.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 Some of the GGEM ensembles have something like that as well. Here's HR 84-96 QPF: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 It's interesting that the GFS was trying to develop something as well down into IL/IN. We'll see what the EURO says. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 GGEM snowfall based on actual ratios: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014112100/gem_asnow_us_24.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 21, 2014 Report Share Posted November 21, 2014 Euro out to hr 96. Gets it down to about 977 in Canada. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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