richard mann Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 - … Increasingly more meridional, with slow-down: .. while regressing. Through to the 3rd. (?) — More cheese on that. … ? "Merry, ……. and to Walla.. ehr .. Aaah., …. I'm, confused." .. Gotta go. My wife wants me to drive her down to get a Lottery ticket. Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 777 heights would kill us all on earth. Weird wishI think he meant sevens across like on a slot machine. The "jackpot" reference? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 I think he meant sevens across like on a slot machine. The "jackpot" reference?No ! Sarcasm is lost. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 Through hour 48, the 0z GFS is nearly identical to the 18z. Looking like the models may have finally locked in to what's going to happen with this first short wave...just a bit too far east for a true Arctic intrusion or any real snow. But not ruling anything out, of course. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 No s**t! Sarcasm is lost.Well now that we have both made our point, how about those ensembles? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 - … Increasingly more meridional, with slow-down: .. while regressing. Through to the 3rd. (?) — More cheese on that. … ? "Merry, ……. and to Walla.. ehr .. Aaah., …. I'm, confused." .. Gotta go. My wife wants me to drive her down to get a Lottery ticket.Merry Christmas to you and yours Richard!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 Through hour 48, the 0z GFS is nearly identical to the 18z. Looking like the models may have finally locked in to what's going to happen with this first short wave...just a bit too far east for a true Arctic intrusion or any real snow. But not ruling anything out, of course. The 0z does spin up that very weak low off the coast of WA again...shows a little bit of moisture around still as the cold air mass works in. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 Through hour 48, the 0z GFS is nearly identical to the 18z. Looking like the models may have finally locked in to what's going to happen with this first short wave...just a bit too far east for a true Arctic intrusion or any real snow. But not ruling anything out, of course.Yeah and the Fraser/Columbia River Gorges, Eastern WA/OR and Idaho will all be snow covered. This will help out with the reload. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 Yeah and the Fraser/Columbia River Gorges, Eastern WA/OR and Idaho will all be snow covered. This will help out with the reload.Your confidence is astounding. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 The 0z does spin up that very weak low off the coast of WA again...shows a little bit of moisture around still as the cold air mass works in.These lows dropping down the coast are notorious for stalling and giving snow to one area while leaving another one close by barely anything. I think at the very least someone will score in the Western lowlands. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 Your confidence is astounding.We've been reloading a gun that hasn't been shot yet. So far I think we're up to three or four reloads. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 Your confidence is astounding.Well all models are showing snow for those areas and that will help cool down the atmosphere more through outflow areas. These areas probably stay snow covered until the next blast comes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 The 0z does spin up that very weak low off the coast of WA again...shows a little bit of moisture around still as the cold air mass works in.I have seen this situation turn into something good in the past. Even a inch or two and then turning cold would be great. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 These lows dropping down the coast are notorious for stalling and giving snow to one area while leaving another one close by barely anything. I think at the very least someone will score in the Western lowlands. The moisture is very sparse...the low is just barely there, and it wasn't on the last GFS run or the NAM. But there's still time for a slight shift west, a little more digging, that's all it would take. Like I said, can't rule it out yet, but at this point I would give the odds of anyone on the west side seeing 1"+ at about 20%. Last time I gave low odds to something good occurring, the models drastically improved within 2 runs. You're welcome. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 The moisture is very sparse...the low is just barely there, and it wasn't on the last GFS run or the NAM. But there's still time for a slight shift west, a little more digging, that's all it would take. Like I said, can't rule it out yet, but at this point I would give the odds of anyone on the west side seeing 1"+ at about 20%. Last time I gave low odds to something good occurring, the models drastically improved within 2 runs. You're welcome.I agree on the GFS-Regular but the GFS-Parallel looks better. Also moisture arrives just before sunrise, great timing. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122600/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_wus_14.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122600/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_wus_15.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122600/gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_wus_16.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 Score! Snow at PDX at hour 96 of the parallel. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 Score! Snow at PDX at hour 96 of the parallel.Yup, since you live on a hill your chances will be higher than most. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 I had 2" of snow in Dec 2013!You had more than I did... I have to admit in the early phase it looks like the puget sound may get screwed again but who knows what can happen later on. Honestly, at this point the setup is pretty marginal for us puget sounders. Good news it will be a little chilly so go out and make your frost or dirt snow and mud balls kids. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 For the operational, ridge is more amplified and further west by day 7, but also skinnier and weaker. Any shortwave is taking it's sweet time moving down. Not gonna see the timing moved up on this run. Maybe the parallel. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard mann Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 Merry Christmas to you and yours ... Back to ya. ".. Chris". Quote --- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 Well all models are showing snow for those areas and that will help cool down the atmosphere more through outflow areas. These areas probably stay snow covered until the next blast comes.Some of us do not live in Oregon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 Some of us do not live in Oregon.I'm talking about the Fraser outflow areas too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 One thing to remember through all this reload teeth-gnashing is the fact we rarely roll from a full-latitude modified event into another full-latitude event. There are pretty sound reasons for the fact this is the dominant tendency. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 Parallel GFS looks nice through hour 198. Continues to be better than the Operational with a shortwave sliding down the Coast and carving out the East side of the block which would drop cold air down on us. Close to a nice snow setup too. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122600/gfsp_z500_mslp_namer_34.png Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 I'm talking about the Fraser outflow areas too.No model is showing any snow (of reasonable value) anywhere in Western Washington. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 Parallel GFS looks nice through hour 198. Continues to be better than the Operational with a shortwave sliding down the Coast and carving out the East side of the block which would drop cold air down on us. Close to a nice snow setup too. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/2014122600/gfsp_z500_mslp_namer_34.pngLooks fantastic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 The moisture is very sparse...the low is just barely there, and it wasn't on the last GFS run or the NAM. But there's still time for a slight shift west, a little more digging, that's all it would take. Like I said, can't rule it out yet, but at this point I would give the odds of anyone on the west side seeing 1"+ at about 20%. Last time I gave low odds to something good occurring, the models drastically improved within 2 runs. You're welcome.It doesn't take much for SOMEONE to get 1". I'd put odds of that at near 50% at this point, but it sure looks light and very spotty unless things can dig further West. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 Parallel GFS looks nice through hour 198. Continues to be better than the Operational with a shortwave sliding down the Coast and carving out the East side of the block which would drop cold air down on us. Close to a nice snow setup too. Would be nice to see the timing move up a little. That second shortwave keeps getting pushed back. I don't really trust the new GFS, simply because it hasn't proven much yet. If the 0z Euro is still showing what it has the past couple runs and the timing is moving up, I'll be a lot more confident in something good for you guys. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 It doesn't take much for SOMEONE to get 1". I'd put odds of that at near 50% at this point, but it sure looks light and very spotty unless things can dig further West. Should have clarified...I meant someone on this forum. That's all that matters. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 Should have clarified...I meant someone on this forum. That's all that matters. That includes someone in Maryland, that is hardly fair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 That includes someone in Maryland, that is hardly fair. I said someone on the west side...meaning a poster here on the west side of the Cascades. Pretty sure that doesn't include MD. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 The Operational GFS gets close. Oh so close. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 0Z is a bad dream. Hope it's an outlier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 0Z is a bad dream. Hope it's an outlier.Both the operational and parallel look pretty good to me. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 0Z is a bad dream. Hope it's an outlier.Ahh but what run is the outlier?? Or the trend setter. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 impressive. I'd be happy if we can get an inch of snow Sunday at some point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 The parallel has been pretty insistent with the second blast being strong. I'm glad to see it staying strong with the retrogression signal in the sweet spot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted December 26, 2014 Report Share Posted December 26, 2014 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.