December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 6-10, 8-14 Day Analog Composite
Nice improvements for sure. Ridge backing off, retrograding.

 

 

 

 

[TT-SEA]

Pretty amazing the WRF showed temps wouldn't even drop to 44 here by 10 pm and it's already 42 well before that. Pretty crazy precip intensity indicated here through 4am.

 

 

44 vs 42 is amazing?

 

Its 20 minutes to 10 now.   

 

Are you OK tonight?   You seem out of touch again.

 

Browse the 12Z runs just for fun.   The 00Z GFS was the only good run of the entire day.   Its the outlier at the moment.  

[snow_wizard]

Yeah, but the 0z GFS was so different than any other run today. 

 

Guess it comes down to the Euro, yet again.

I was saying it is unlike any recent run of ANY model. The same is not true of tonight's GFS run.

[snow_wizard]

00z GFS 6-10, 8-14 Day Analog Composite

Nice improvements for sure. Ridge backing off, retrograding.

 

500hgt_comp_00gfs610.gif

 

500hgt_comp_00gfs814.gif

Some nice years showing up there. It looks like Phil may have nailed the progression dead between the eyes. I sure hope so!

[TT-SEA]

Hey Jim... pay attention.        

 

12Z GFS for Monday:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_156_500_vort_ht.gif

 

 

 

 

And the brand new 00Z Canadian for Monday... how is this run different than any run of any model?   Its exactly like all of the 12Z runs.

 

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

[Bryant]

44 vs 42 is amazing?

 

Its 20 minutes to 10 now.   

 

Are you OK tonight?   You seem out of touch again.

 

Browse the 12Z runs just for fun.   The 00Z GFS was the only good run of the entire day.   Its the outlier at the moment.  

 

Can't tell him he's out of touch when you just last night said we wouldn't see a flip to cold again because it's too extreme of a change. Look what happened tonight. To call anything off the table at this point is foolish with the lack of consistency. Not to mention you called off the Jan 1-10th period earlier based off a 240 hour forecast for the 2nd. 

[Front Ranger]

Tim is right about this. The 0z GEM is much closer to the rest of the model runs today than the 0z GFS.

[TT-SEA]

Can't tell him he's out of touch when you just last night said we wouldn't see a flip to cold again because it's too extreme of a change. Look what happened tonight. To call anything off the table at this point is foolish with the lack of consistency. Not to mention you called off the Jan 1-10th period earlier based off a 240 hour forecast for the 2nd. 

 

 

He is out of touch because 44 vs 42 is 'amazing' and he obviously did not look at any of the 12Z runs.     

 

I have no idea what will happen tonight or over the weekend or next week... but Jim is asleep at the wheel tonight.  

[Gradient Keeper]

I just checked 00z GEM Ensembles HR 96-144 and there are several cold members just enough mixed in that to me means the operational could have room to improve tomorrow. Checking HR 168 - 240 in a second.

[Gradient Keeper]

I just checked 00z GEM Ensembles HR 96-144 and there are several cold members just enough mixed in that to me means the operational could have room to improve tomorrow. Checking HR 168 - 240 in a second.

HR 168 - 240, very little if any signal for cold or retrogression.

[TT-SEA]

I just checked 00z GEM Ensembles HR 96-144 and there are several cold members just enough mixed in that to me means the operational could have room to improve tomorrow. Checking HR 168 - 240 in a second.

 

 

Having the parallel agree is a good thing.

 

But I literally have no idea what it will be like on Sunday at this point.     I mean no idea at all.      Can't remember this much disagreement within 120 hours.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF is underway

Need a good run mirroring GFS at the least and not following the GEM. No, we do not want that.

 

HR 24

 

[snow_wizard]

HR 168 - 240, very little if any signal for cold or retrogression.

Most of the retrogression signal has bee just after day 10.

[Gradient Keeper]

Would love that Aleutian trough to be pulled/pushed back into Siberia..... lol wishful thinking

[Deweydog]

It certainly does seem people are discounting the possibilities for tonight way too easily. We shall see I guess.

Oh Jim...

[snow_wizard]

Down another degree here. Obviously the models are too warm for tonight.

[BLI snowman]

Literally so much is riding on this Euro run. Insane pressure.

[snow_wizard]

Oh Jim...

I guess you weren't aware the NWS is actually talking about snow tonight. Sometimes you seem to think I'm a moron. Why do I even bother posting on here.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 48

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Literally so much is riding on this Euro run. Insane pressure.

There actually is....

[snow_wizard]

If there are reports of snow in the morning I'll be sure to gloat.

[stuffradio]

Per my impression more general, I'd say that most of the people interested in the idea of "model riding" here in the PNW, .. are most probably, fairly familiar with the limits of what they're looking at, or choose to.

 

— Certainly good to be reminded of the idea every once in a while. As too much (?) model riding along with speculation connected, can be thought of at least, as detracting from the idea of whats actually going on, and so people's pondering what might take place where looking ahead, more for themselves. Again, .. I'd say.

 

The term is one accepted to some extent now these days btw.  -  http://www.urbandict...rm=model riding

 

.. No online support group as yet apparently. @

You could start one for us!

[TT-SEA]

I guess you weren't aware the NWS is actually talking about snow tonight. Sometimes I think you seem to think I'm a moron. Why do I even bother posting on here.

 

 

Its like you are posting in your world with no sense of the discussion on here... or any other model runs today.    You just keep plowing along obvilously.

 

BTW - whether you bottom out 38 or 36 is not going to make much of a difference.    Cold rain is cold rain.   

[TT-SEA]

If there are reports of snow in the morning I'll be sure to gloat.

 

 

Not the point... we all know its possible.

[Front Ranger]

Oh Jim...

 

This is a weird one. He's talking about a legit threat, unless the NWS is out to lunch.

[Front Ranger]

Its like you are posting in your world with no sense of the discussion on here... or any other model runs today.    You just keep plowing along obvilously.

 

BTW - whether you bottom out 38 or 36 is not going to make much of a difference.    Cold rain is cold rain.   

 

Dude...you're crossing into jerkdom.

[snow_wizard]

Can't tell him he's out of touch when you just last night said we wouldn't see a flip to cold again because it's too extreme of a change. Look what happened tonight. To call anything off the table at this point is foolish with the lack of consistency. Not to mention you called off the Jan 1-10th period earlier based off a 240 hour forecast for the 2nd.

Tim is just so eager to discredit me. It's to the point where it's just plain sad. How on Earth is it a problem to point out the WRF was at least 3 to 4 degrees too warm at 10pm tonight? It really pisses me off people can't post in peace on here.

[TT-SEA]

This is a weird one. He's talking about a legit threat, unless the NWS is out to lunch.

 

No kidding... of course its possible.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Dude...you're crossing into jerkdom.

Crossing? He's there.... Tim, seriously lay off especially when you know full well what he disclosed in here, and you're pushing his buttons repeatedly? That's not real smart or nice....

[snow_wizard]

Dude...you're crossing into jerkdom.

Just let him hang himself.

[TT-SEA]

Tim is just so eager to discredit me. It's to the point where it's just plain sad. How on Earth is it a problem to point out the WRF was at least 3 to 4 degrees too warm at 10pm tonight? It really pisses me off people can't post in peace on here.

 

 

Nothing wrong with posting your temp or comparing it to the WRF.    

 

But claiming 44 vs 42 is 'amazing' is a little silly.    

 

Anywhooooo... did you see the 12Z runs?   The 00Z GEM is just like all the other runs today.    It might be wrong... but it has lots of company today.   

 

00Z ECMWF to the rescue!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Literally so much is riding on this Euro run. Insane pressure.

 

Dood you don't even know how in a knot my stomach is right now. Hour 240 on the Euro tonight means EVERYTHING!

[TT-SEA]

Just let him hang himself.

 

[snow_wizard]

Crossing? He's there.... Tim, seriously lay off.....

He totally paints himself into a corner whereas I'm just pointing out possibilities and model errors tonight.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nothing wrong with posting your temp or comparing it to the WRF.    

 

But claiming 44 vs 42 is 'amazing' is a little silly.    

 

Anywhooooo... did you see the 12Z runs.   The 00Z GEM is just like all the other runs today.    It might be wrong... but it has lots of company today.   

 

00Z ECMWF to the rescue!

 

Tim, the EURO tonight will decide the future of all Middle Earth.

[snow_wizard]

This is a weird one. He's talking about a legit threat, unless the NWS is out to lunch.

They actually mentioned the HRRR model indicated accumulations tonight for some places.

[Gradient Keeper]

Next 2 frames mean everything

.

...

......

.........

until the next 2 frames after that....

[TT-SEA]

Can't tell if this is going to be good or bad yet?

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014122400/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_4.png

[Front Ranger]

No kidding... of course its possible.  

 

That's why Dewey's post didn't really make sense.

[snow_wizard]

He is out of touch because 44 vs 42 is 'amazing' and he obviously did not look at any of the 12Z runs.     

 

I have no idea what will happen tonight or over the weekend or next week... but Jim is asleep at the wheel tonight.  

I would sure like to see where I said amazing.