December 2014 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[seattleweatherguy]

Yes. Our best shot at some flakes is tonight it seems (specifically for East Puget Sound area).

 

I bet TT scores something going into Christmas as well.

 

Funny thing is bothell really isn't east puget sound lowlands but lumped in forecast

[MossMan]

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
  330 PM PST TUE DEC 23 2014

  LONG TERM...THE 18Z GFS PARALLEL RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS 12Z 
  SOLUTION IN SHOWING THE LIKELIHOOD OF A DRY OR NEARLY DRY CANADIAN 
  FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY COOL 
  AND DRY WEATHER AS A STRONG RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALONG 130W. 
  FORECASTS...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE...WILL BE FOR A DRY AND SLIGHTLY 
  COOLER THAN NORMAL PERIOD STARTING SUNDAY. EXPECT MODELS TO CONTINUE 
  TO FLIP AND FLOP FOR THE NEXT FEW CYCLES AS SYSTEMS DEVELOP 
  OFFSHORE. ALBRECHT
  
 

[Gradient Keeper]

4:05 PM Analysis

I just took a look at the 18z NCEP/NWS Pacific Surface Analysis chart as well as the most recent IR Imagery. It tells me really all that I need to know. One deep low(Below 960mb) after another moves up towards the western-central Aleutians and multiple fronts are moving inside 170 W forecast to approach 150 W along the southern Alaskan Coast. That's bad news. IR Imagery spells it out even more clearly. Good luck seeing any type of ridge amplification with this pattern. It looks very progressive matching the latest poor model trends. 18z GFS Op/Parallel follows this as well unfortunately looking very progressive. In fact, if we were to become anymore progressive there won't be a ridge offshore at all with energy toppling it shoving it well inland before it can even assert itself near 140 W. Maybe we'll end up with chilly NW flow and tons of mountain snow. I'm trying to look for the positive in this apparent discouraging situation for us lowland Cold/Snow lovers. Let's hope I am simply wrong, confused, delusional, and out of my mind. I guess for the sake of rare possibilities we can hope 00z turns things around tonight. I'm less optimistic more cautiously realistic.

 

 

[Deweydog]

I wouldn't mind bifurcating Megan Fox...

[luvssnow_spokane]

After reading the latest AFD from the NWS -- I have been looking an OBS readings and things are about 10 to 12 degrees colder up north than they are here. Currently at 52... I Will be tracking this on a local level. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

I wouldn't mind bifurcating Megan Fox...

I don't understand?   Do you have images or charts to explain that?  Will it make it snow?

[luvssnow_spokane]

It is really warm at Doebay on Orcas Island!  it might be a trend or maybe it got bifafornicated by Dewey.. Anything is possible...

 

 

[seattleweatherguy]

After reading the latest AFD from the NWS -- I have been looking an OBS readings and things are about 10 to 12 degrees colder up north than they are here. Currently at 52... I Will be tracking this on a local level.

Awesome please do I may end up leaving home early...because of snow.

[bainbridgekid]

Does anyone know what page I can find the Dec 2008 discussion thread in the archived forum. Someone must have bumped it at some point since it is not with all the other 2008 threads and I have been searching all over for it with no luck.

There were several threads, but here are the main ones. Really fun reads.

 

November 19th-December 8th pre blast speculation thread:

http://theweatherforums.com/archive/index.php?/topic/23503-major-arctic-blast-headed-for-pacific-northwest/

 

December 8th-12th: The immediate buildup

http://theweatherforums.com/archive/index.php?/topic/23786-arctic-outbreak-part-ii/

 

December 12th-16th: The fun begins.

http://theweatherforums.com/archive/index.php?/topic/23898-arctic-outbreak-08/

 

December 16th-19th: Things start to get serious, buildup to the Megastorm.

http://theweatherforums.com/archive/index.php?/topic/23936-cold-and-snow-event-number-2/

 

December 19th-22nd: The Beast.

http://theweatherforums.com/archive/index.php?/topic/24029-epic-megastorm-2008/

 

The easiest way to find the really fun threads is to search by most replies instead of start date.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Wave 3 guys, wave 3.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Wave 3 guys, wave 3.

Who are you waving at?

[richard mann]

Hey Richard!  ANY thoughts on the upcoming weather? Love you[r] input and analysis. Although a little tough to read sometimes but you do have some crazy brilliant insights!

 

.. By "upcoming weather", I'm assuming you've meant the "cold" potential being talked about here above over the past several days. I really don't "speculate" regarding much more.

 

Basically, and with my working to fit what I have to say more "generally" regarding the idea, and as it relates to the PNW (more specifically.), to the discussion more general here, … Over the past few to several days, and relative to different peoples' various different views and takes on the different either whether more near-term or more extended model projections, posted or referred to otherwise, I've been looking at both what I've suggested previously, included within the post routed to here just below following, along with some things posted leaning in the direction/s that I've suggested. 

 

http://theweatherfor...e-74#entry54138

 

— Basically the possibility of some amount of more substantial cold's .. even with, broader cold's current more general recession daily more northward, .. perhaps dropping south over the PNW, with a likely increasingly more meridional setup main patterning wise more in line with over-all cold's otherwise current steadily slowing pace more eastward. This with also, and if looked at alternatively, some amount of retrograde, also being possible, with broader cold's general slowdown more east.

 

.. Both of these ideas, more near term relative to the first 10 days of Jan. speculation suggested above. Nearer to the (or an.) end of Dec. / first few days of Jan. timeframe. …

 

— This again, more "general" speculation, with my also having noted just today—if more model related (I don't employ model output, where considering my own efforts more speculative.), what the GFS .. has been looking at regarding the idea of a "blast" of some sort. Posted to the "CA Climate" thread, in a more "condensed" form. .. And if slanted more toward Southern CA "readers". 

 

.. Check the fuller "Forecast Discussion" entry quoted there perhaps. But here are the pertinent elements within it more, that I've noted as being somewhat in line with what I've suggested here above and previously.

 

Forecast Issued on Dec 14th .....     9 Days ago?

 

Day16-384hr, Mon 12/29  ..... The High Pressure ridge offshore rapidly builds northward into western Canada, with a steep downwind flank dropping due south into CA!  WOWIE!  NOT GOOD…  The flow pattern suggested shows POLAR air diving due south from northern BC, Canada toward Fresno with a vortmax piece of energy diving into Bishop with a -28°C isotherm and a dry/polar front sagging SW from the Sierra, moving over the SJV from the NE!  Been there done that, not pretty.   Hope and pray, this does NOT verify.  We’ll be looking forward to the next subsequent GFS model run to hopefully see this bugger be erased.  500mb chart example below showing polar air diving into CA on a north flow pattern.  Low confidence…

                                               

 

If the recent GFS model trends are correct, then this forecast issued 16 Days ago could verify with some very unpleasant repercussions for the AG Community, specifically for the Citrus Industry.  While the GFS has struggled with this scenario for the past 9 days, it keeps bouncing back to the original theme of a blast of ARCTIC air reaching into CA.  With the clock ticking away, the GFS is quickly using up the available time left to edit or modify this damaging event, with about 6 or 7 days left before the bulk of the cold air arrives.

More main, cold wise, as this all above is mainly more "blast", "cold shot" potential focused, in line with the stronger interest in this idea, … More generally, what I've projected most recently main colder air focused, is that main and more primary cold will be in general recession mode through the 3rd of January.

 

And with this, (not posted / projected to this point.) main cold should begin to move and spread daily more south where looked at more over-all, from the 3rd or 4th of Jan., through 17th.

[TT-SEA]

It is really warm at Doebay on Orcas Island!  it might be a trend or maybe it got bifafornicated by Dewey.. Anything is possible...

 

Screen Shot 2014-12-23 at 4.22.18 PM.png

 

 

Phil can relate... 96 with a dewpoint of 96 and a heat index of 168.    

 

Very normal for 3,000+ feet in elevation at 40N latitude.    

[bainbridgekid]

Afternoon AFD is one of the most detailed I've seen. Great read.

 

SHORT TERM...MODELS ARE ALL HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE DETAILS
OFFSHORE AT ALL TIME RANGES FROM NOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE
SHORT TERM THE ISSUES CONCERN COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND A DEEP LOW
WEST OF HAIDA GWAII AND SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST INTO THE AREA
UNDER A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME. IN THE LONGER TERM THE ISSUES
CONCERN THE AMOUNT OF BLOCKING THAT TAKES PLACE OFFSHORE AND WHERE
IT SETS UP. THE BLOCKING WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP
LOW NORTH OF HAWAII...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND AN UPPER TROUGH
AROUND THE DATELINE AT 50N...AND THE STRUCTURE OF THE DEEP LOW OVER
THE WESTERN BERING SEA.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MOISTURE PLUME THAT IS CONNECTED TO A
SUBTROPICAL LOW OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS EXTENDING NE ONTO
VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS SURGED SOUTHWARD UNDER
THIS PLUME AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT IT HAS MOVED TO A LINE
FROM THE NORTH CASCADES TO SOUTH OF HOQUIAM. DUAL POL RADAR DATA
FROM KATX SHOWS THE MELTING LEVEL NOW DOWN TO AROUND 2500 FEET. ALL
THIS IS FASTER THAN INDICATED BY MODELS.

THE TREND OF THE HRRR RUNS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS BEEN CLEAR.
RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITATION RATES AND THE COOLING OF THE LOWER
LEVELS GIVE AN ISOTHERMAL 0C LAYER FROM ABOUT 2000 FEET TO 500-600
FEET MSL IN THE INTERIOR...MAINLY FROM SNOHOMISH COUNTY SOUTHWARD
ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 5...FROM ABOUT 09Z TONIGHT TO 15-18Z
WEDNESDAY. THE HRRR GOES AS FAR AS SHOWING UP TO 3 INCHES OF WET
SNOW AROUND THE MORNING COMMUTE ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT JUST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR SOME GRASS SNOW ON
HIGHER HILLS. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW AND THESE TYPE OF
EVENTS ARE RARE...SO PLEASE KEEP AN EYE ON LATEST FORECASTS.

ONCE THIS FRONT AND MOISTURE MOVES SOUTH...JUST EXPECT CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
NORTHWESTERLY. THE 18Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW THE CHANCE OF A
CONVERGENCE ZONE BRINGING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE EVERETT AND EAST
PUGET SOUND AREAS ON CHRISTMAS MORNING...BUT OTHER MODELS ARE DRIER.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE AREA AND WILL KEEP
SNOW LEVELS JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP FLAKES OUT OF THE FORECAST.

 

It's 39 degrees at 2,400 feet in the NW Olympics though still so it'd be interesting if the melting layer was actually that low already. http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=MTOFW1

 

They must have access to an HRRR that goes out further because the publicly available one only goes to 5AM and shows no lowland snow before then. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?keys=hrrr_ncep_jet:&runtime=2014122322&plot_type=acsnw_t1sfc&fcst=15&time_inc=60&num_times=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=t1&adtfn=1

[Snowman5678]

Afternoon AFD is one of the most detailed I've seen. Great read.

 

SHORT TERM...MODELS ARE ALL HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE DETAILS

OFFSHORE AT ALL TIME RANGES FROM NOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE

SHORT TERM THE ISSUES CONCERN COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND A DEEP LOW

WEST OF HAIDA GWAII AND SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST INTO THE AREA

UNDER A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME. IN THE LONGER TERM THE ISSUES

CONCERN THE AMOUNT OF BLOCKING THAT TAKES PLACE OFFSHORE AND WHERE

IT SETS UP. THE BLOCKING WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP

LOW NORTH OF HAWAII...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND AN UPPER TROUGH

AROUND THE DATELINE AT 50N...AND THE STRUCTURE OF THE DEEP LOW OVER

THE WESTERN BERING SEA.

 

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MOISTURE PLUME THAT IS CONNECTED TO A

SUBTROPICAL LOW OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS EXTENDING NE ONTO

VANCOUVER ISLAND. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS SURGED SOUTHWARD UNDER

THIS PLUME AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT IT HAS MOVED TO A LINE

FROM THE NORTH CASCADES TO SOUTH OF HOQUIAM. DUAL POL RADAR DATA

FROM KATX SHOWS THE MELTING LEVEL NOW DOWN TO AROUND 2500 FEET. ALL

THIS IS FASTER THAN INDICATED BY MODELS.

 

THE TREND OF THE HRRR RUNS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS BEEN CLEAR.

RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITATION RATES AND THE COOLING OF THE LOWER

LEVELS GIVE AN ISOTHERMAL 0C LAYER FROM ABOUT 2000 FEET TO 500-600

FEET MSL IN THE INTERIOR...MAINLY FROM SNOHOMISH COUNTY SOUTHWARD

ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 5...FROM ABOUT 09Z TONIGHT TO 15-18Z

WEDNESDAY. THE HRRR GOES AS FAR AS SHOWING UP TO 3 INCHES OF WET

SNOW AROUND THE MORNING COMMUTE ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE NAM BUFR

SOUNDINGS SUPPORT JUST A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OR SOME GRASS SNOW ON

HIGHER HILLS. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS LOW AND THESE TYPE OF

EVENTS ARE RARE...SO PLEASE KEEP AN EYE ON LATEST FORECASTS.

 

ONCE THIS FRONT AND MOISTURE MOVES SOUTH...JUST EXPECT CLOUDS AND A

CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES

NORTHWESTERLY. THE 18Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW THE CHANCE OF A

CONVERGENCE ZONE BRINGING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE EVERETT AND EAST

PUGET SOUND AREAS ON CHRISTMAS MORNING...BUT OTHER MODELS ARE DRIER.

FOR NOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE AREA AND WILL KEEP

SNOW LEVELS JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP FLAKES OUT OF THE FORECAST.

 

It's 39 degrees at 2,400 feet in the Olympics though still so it'd be interesting if the melting layer was actually that low already. They must have access to an HRRR that goes out further because the publicly available one only goes to 3AM and shows no lowland snow before then.

 

Yeah nothing on the HRRR yet...Got an email for spotter activation here and the NWS now has a rain snow mix in the forecast from tonight through christmas night...it'll be interesting to see if this amounts to anything. 

[MikeInEverett]

Looking at the archives from 2008 seems a lot of what we were going through now, we were all excited, then disappointed, then excited, etc.. Maybe we could get the same situation here in early 2015?

[luvssnow_spokane]

 

.. By "upcoming weather", I'm assuming you've meant the "cold" potential being talked about here above over the past several days. I really don't "speculate" regarding much more.

 

Basically, and with my working to fit what I have to say, more "generally", regarding the idea, and as it relates to the PNW (more specifically.), to the discussion more general here, … Over the past few to several days, and relative to different peoples' various different views and takes on the different either whether more near-term or more extended model projections, posted or referred to otherwise, I've been looking at both what I've suggested previously, included with the post routed to here just below following, along with some things posted leaning in the direction/s that I've suggested. 

 

http://theweatherfor...e-74#entry54138

 

— Basically the possibility of some amount of more substantial cold's .. even with, broader cold's current more general recession daily more northward, .. perhaps dropping south over the PNW, with a likely increasingly more meridional setup main patterning wise more in line with over-all cold's otherwise current steadily slowing pace more eastward. This with also, and if looked at alternatively, some amount of retrograde, also being possible, with broader cold's general slowdown more east.

 

.. Both of these ideas, more near term relative to the first 10 days of Jan. speculation suggested above. Nearer to the (or an.) end of Dec. / first few days of Jan. timeframe. …

 

— This again, more "general" speculation, with my also having noted just today—if more model related (I don't employ model output, where considering my own efforts more speculative.), what the GFS .. has been looking at regarding the idea of a "blast" of some sort. Posted to the "CA Climate" thread, in a more "condensed" form. .. And if slanted more toward Southern CA "readers". 

 

.. Check the fuller "Forecast Discussion" entry quoted there perhaps. But here are the pertinent elements within it more, that I've noted as being somewhat in line with what I've suggested here above and previously.

 

More main, cold wise, as this all above is mainly more "blast", "cold shot" potential focused, in line with the stronger interest in this idea, … More generally, what I've projected most recently main colder air focused, is that main and more primary cold will be in general recession mode through the 3rd of January.

 

And with this, (not posted / projected to this point.) main cold should begin to move and spread daily more south where looked at more over-all, from the 3rd or 4th of Jan., through 17th.

Thank you! It looks like your thinking is in line with others here. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Looking at the archives from 2008 seems a lot of what we were going through now, we were all excited, then disappointed, then excited, etc.. Maybe we could get the same situation here in early 2015?

I agree... The roller coaster of Dec 2008 was painful at times and similar to what we are dealing with now. Patience may payoff... Then again... *fill in the blank with cursing and explicative here as you like*

[Deweydog]

Looking at the archives from 2008 seems a lot of what we were going through now, we were all excited, then disappointed, then excited, etc.. Maybe we could get the same situation here in early 2015?

This happens all winter, any winter. Difference is only when we actually SCORE!!!

[richard mann]

Wait, did the image post okay? I can see it just fine.

 

.. No. 

 

Not more initially. 

 

.. This did. --800.jpg

[Deweydog]

I agree... The roller coaster of Dec 2008 was painful at times and similar to what we are dealing with now. Patience may payoff... Then again... *fill in the blank with cursing and explicative here as you like*

December 2008 was exceptionally well-handled 7-8 days out. Even at 11-12 days the signal was pretty strong. True pattern crashers, as that was, tend to get picked up on pretty early.

[stuffradio]

 

.. No. 

 

Not more initially. 

 

.. This did. --800.jpg

It did actually post fine for me. I saw it instantly when he posted it.

[richard mann]

.. If you say so. Others apparently, including myself, didn't.

 

— Funky "drop-box" choice evidently.

[Phil]

I wouldn't mind bifurcating Megan Fox...

I'm with you there, haha.

[Gradient Keeper]

[Model Countdown]
Next up....
00z NAM 27 minutes
00z GFS 2 hours 7 minutes
00z GEM 3 hours 27 minutes
00z ECMWF 4 hours 37 minutes
I fear we'll see a suite of pure manure runs unfold before our very disappointed eyes(or eye if you're a Pirate) tonight. Hope for the best. Get out your lucky Rabbits foot, Conjure up the friendly weather Gods, Channel your inner-Frosty and make Snow happen for all the Boys and Girls, ummm, perform the exciting Toe/Finger crossing combo for good fortune. ©Rob Grimes 2014

[catnip]

[Model Countdown]

Next up....

00z NAM 27 minutes

00z GFS 2 hours 7 minutes

00z GEM 3 hours 27 minutes

00z ECMWF 4 hours 37 minutes

I fear we'll see a suite of pure manure runs unfold before our very disappointed eyes(or eye if you're a Pirate) tonight. Hope for the best. Get out your lucky Rabbits foot, Conjure up the friendly weather Gods, Channel your inner-Frosty and make Snow happen for all the Boys and Girls, ummm, perform the exciting Toe/Finger crossing combo for good fortune. ©Rob Grimes 2014

Lol

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GFS Ensemble 850mb Temp mean
Marginally chilly to crummy through New Years, but believe it or not(and I don't) perhaps some promise as we head into 2015 with a notable drop in the mean temp and a cluster of members dipping to -5 to -10c for Portland/Seattle(some even colder) and colder yet of course for our Canuckians up north. I guess if we have to get through some chilly conditions to get to the good stuff we'd be okay with that. Right? Yes. This seems to match up with Phil's January 1st - 10th prediction too. Hmmm. HMMM I say!

 

Portland

 

Seattle

 

Vancouver, BC

[seattleweatherguy]

King 5 says over 500 feet...426 so close. Might see lumpy rain

[MikeInEverett]

King 5 says over 500 feet...426 so close. Might see lumpy rain

It's the news, they're way too conservative with this stuff..

[Front Ranger]

Strat forecasts are not like surface/tropospheric forecasts..much higher verification rate. The ECMWF ensembles are gung-ho on a split as well.

 

Sweet.

[richard mann]

(.. cross-reference.)

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/735-early-winter-2014-15-colder-air-mass-movement-and-distribution-projections/?p=55518

[Front Ranger]

December 2008 was exceptionally well-handled 7-8 days out. Even at 11-12 days the signal was pretty strong. True pattern crashers, as that was, tend to get picked up on pretty early.

 

This.

 

I remember the models did falter some, but not much within 10 days. The event did get pushed back some from when it first started showing up, though.

[Front Ranger]

I wouldn't mind bifurcating Megan Fox...

 

I actually dated a girl named Meghan Fox once. It was ok.

[snow_wizard]

I sure like the sounds of that forecast discussion tonight. Possible 0c temps at 500 to 600 feet. That would put me in snow pretty easily. That would be awesome. These are the kinds of events that help come up with a decent winter snow total when combined with the more legit events.

 

Certainly seeing a strong retrogression signal during week 2 on the ensembles runs today. Even the situation this weekend and early next week looks plenty chilly. Sure going to be nice seeing some cold temps finally!

[Jbolin]

I'm having a hard time believing the HRRR even out to 5 am. And honestly I really don't think anyone below 1200 ft sees anything, even snow in the air no matter how strong the precip is nor how cold the 0C temps drop. 

 

Too "fringy" IMHO

[Snowman5678]

I sure like the sounds of that forecast discussion tonight. Possible 0c temps at 500 to 600 feet. That would put me in snow pretty easily. That would be awesome. These are the kinds of events that help come up with a decent winter snow total when combined with the more legit events.

 

Certainly seeing a strong retrogression signal during week 2 on the ensembles runs today. Even the situation this weekend and early next week looks plenty chilly. Sure going to be nice seeing some cold temps finally!

 

Yeah, events like this usually give me some good snow too...I just have trouble believing it this time. We'll see I guess.

[snow_wizard]

I'm having a hard time believing the HRRR even out to 5 am. And honestly I really don't think anyone below 1200 ft sees anything, even snow in the air no matter how strong the precip is nor how cold the 0C temps drop. 

 

Too "fringy" IMHO

I've seen ones like this deliver before. The details have to perfect, but it might happen.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah, events like this usually give me some good snow too...I just have trouble believing it this time. We'll see I guess.

The WRF shows 925mb temps dropping to zero late tonight. With good precip intensity it can happen. I'm really surprised to see the NWS talking about it though.

[Front Ranger]

I like the guy that writes these, one day he and his coworkers will post here.

 

I'm sure this isn't "jaya", so people can stop harassing him.

 

Really? Seems odd that another local met would choose that moniker.

[richard mann]

-
If of more incidental note relative to the general discussion above, ...
 
.. Things more main cold "storage" focused, looked at more hemispherically (where looking at the fuller N. hem.) certainly appear to be consolidating much more and better, through from upper Greenland, and east through to [Eastern] Siberia at this point. Even where looked at with the current season in mind more generally. …
 
http://weather.unisys.com/upper air/ua hem.php?plot=n5&inv=0&t=cur
http://weather.unisys.com/upper air/ua hem.php?plot=n8&inv=0&t=cur

Plenty of moisture generation potential looked at otherwise, leastwise.

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.12.22.2014.gif

PDO, looking fairly strong.