Tom Posted December 12, 2014 Report Share Posted December 12, 2014 Could this be the first widespread significant Plains snowstorm of this season??? The models are getting a better handle on this system and targeting Nebraska as the epicenter. Both the GFS/EURO model keep the heaviest snows in NE at the moment. Let's discuss the storm potential here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 12, 2014 Report Share Posted December 12, 2014 Boy the GFS has bounced around with the highest totals. I keep saying, and local mets also, that it might be hours prior to the event until they know where the rain/snow line will be. We may total over 1 inch of rain here in Central Nebraska on Sunday before a change to freezing rain/sleet Sunday night, then change to snow into Monday. When and where that changeover occurs will determine heaviest snow totals. Should be a fun weekend of tracking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 12, 2014 Report Share Posted December 12, 2014 Canadian pretty far north and west Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 12, 2014 Report Share Posted December 12, 2014 Have only had 1 storm in November here with about 3 inches of snow. Been a very slow start to the year. Usually have some piles of snow from previous storms, but not even that this year. The next 2 weeks should be interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 12, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 12, 2014 12z Euro still hits NE really good, almost goes neg tilt for a moment there...hits a nice defo band Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 12, 2014 Report Share Posted December 12, 2014 Still like the pink over my house. Would love it to go negative tilt. Storm not being talked up very much around here. I think the mets think it will stay too warm for too long for accumulations. I would think some sort of advisory might be coming tomorrow if trends continue. Thanks again Tom. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted December 12, 2014 Report Share Posted December 12, 2014 This is most certainly going to come down to the day of. We won't know for sure about accumulations until we see how fast the cold comes and changeover occurs. This will definitely be a now-cast type event. I hate these because there is so much suspense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshoe Posted December 12, 2014 Report Share Posted December 12, 2014 Good to see you NE guys with something to watch. Up here in WI i'm hoping the cold catches the moisture but it's not sounding too promising. Quote WISCONSIN RAPIDS Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 12, 2014 Report Share Posted December 12, 2014 18z GFS focuses on central Nebraska. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 13, 2014 Report Share Posted December 13, 2014 I think the 18Z GFS is probably a good representation of what is going to happen for location and amounts. 2-4" for the areas that get it, and it looks like central NE up into eastern SD and then northeast from there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 13, 2014 Report Share Posted December 13, 2014 The 0Z NAM has a nice secondary piece of energy rotating around the backside of the main low that brings some pretty decent SNOW to eastern Nebraska Monday night. We'll see if that is a trend. It looks the 18Z GFS kinda showed this only a little further north and east Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 13, 2014 Report Share Posted December 13, 2014 00z gfs clobbers Nebraska then moves to Iowa. 2 storms for Nebraska. Up through hour 138. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted December 13, 2014 Report Share Posted December 13, 2014 00z gfs clobbers Nebraska then moves to Iowa. 2 storms for Nebraska. Up through hour 138. Man this system on Monday is going to be a nail biter for sure. Won't be fun if we only get cold rain with heavy snow just to our North and West. Good thing more cold air will be available for the system towards the end of next week, if that even pans out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 13, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2014 00z GGEM... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 13, 2014 Report Share Posted December 13, 2014 I think it is pretty safe to say at this point that at least here in Omaha we won't be seeing anything big out of this storm. There was a run or two of the NAM and GFS that showed hope of a stronger piece of energy rotating around the backside of the storm Monday night after it was cold enough for snow to give us a chance at some decent accumulations, but that has disappeared now for several runs. It looks like a decent moisture producing rain event here with maybe some backside flurries or mix. Accumulating snow looks to be in central Nebraska up into SoDak.Still some nice moisture at least and now to look onto the next week for something hopefully to move through Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 13, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 13, 2014 12z Euro... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 13, 2014 Report Share Posted December 13, 2014 As I expected, Winter Storm Watches and Advisories being issued just west and northwest of Central Nebraska. Need the models to move things 50 miles SE and we will enjoy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 14, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 Hopefully some of you in the Plains can manage to squeeze out some surprise snowfall outta this. I know that there are a few in C NE. Storm is definitely taking shape and the models are targeting the north/central part of NE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 Tom, just north of me. Need that rain/snow line to come south tonight. Mets. are still struggling at this point on the specific deformation zone and when the rain will change to sleet then to snow. Will be an interesting 24 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 14, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 12z Euro trying to show more love for you folks in NE... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 This is very hard to swallow. Low is taking a great track for snowstorms in Central/Eastern Nebraska, which are the areas that got the brunt of the screwjob last winter. This time we have the storm but are missing the cold air. In the middle of December and we still can't squeeze snow out of a big storm to our south. We desperately need something to lift our spirits because we are all on the edge of insanity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 Hopefully some of you in the Plains can manage to squeeze out some surprise snowfall outta this. I know that there are a few in C NE. Storm is definitely taking shape and the models are targeting the north/central part of NE.I would seriously just need a shift of about 50 miles and I'm seeing 3-5". Don't think it will happen, hard to believe how warm it is for the middle of December. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 14, 2014 Report Share Posted December 14, 2014 Thunderstorm at my house in holdrege. Lightning strikes and thunder. Heavy rain and some very small hail. Amazing on December 14. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 15, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 Is anyone getting snow out there??? Looks like a lot of the wrap around moisture has turned over to snow in C NE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 Tom, between 3 and 4 inches at my house in Holdrege. Snowing again with blowing. Looks like a winter wonderland outside. Sorry for those who haven't gotten any snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 15, 2014 Author Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 Tom, between 3 and 4 inches at my house in Holdrege. Snowing again with blowing. Looks like a winter wonderland outside. Sorry for those who haven't gotten any snow.Nice! Take some pics if you can. Glad you got your share of the white stuff. It's too bad this system was caught in a warm cycle. It looks beautiful on radar imagery and would have been a big snowstorm if it had been cold enough. This storm should be fun to track later on in January in LRC Cycle 3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 Tom, between 3 and 4 inches at my house in Holdrege. Snowing again with blowing. Looks like a winter wonderland outside. Sorry for those who haven't gotten any snow. Congrats out there to any and all the NE folks who scored something with this! Been long overdue, and its a good (better) sign for a better season this winter. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralweather44 Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 No snow here in Lincoln but have reciever just over an inch of rain since about 6:45 last night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 Will get pictures after school. Checked this site during classes. No snow day here but many districts around us had 10 AM starts and several didn't have school, usually those in the hilly regions of the sandhills on in the canyons of southwest Nebraska. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted December 15, 2014 Report Share Posted December 15, 2014 Such a narrow band of snow that was. Same thing happened last winter too, and in the same areas. Hopefully we get a nice storm that can dump on the entire state. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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