Hawkeye Posted February 20 Report Share Posted February 20 12z UK.... bizarrely weak, major outlier. Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 20 Report Share Posted February 20 12z GFS Mean. 5 of the ensembles have 6in amounts in C. Iowa. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 20 Report Share Posted February 20 12z Euro Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 20 Report Share Posted February 20 Winter weather advisory issued for a large part of eastern Iowa. 2-4” in general. 3 Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted February 20 Report Share Posted February 20 WW advisory issued for eastern Nebraska for 1-3”. 18Z models are going a little nuts though... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 21 Report Share Posted February 21 This snowfall should be fun to watch. Still continuing to add to my snowpack w this one. 1 Quote Snowfall as of today: Feb, 2021: 41.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 21 Report Share Posted February 21 00z HRRR Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 21 Report Share Posted February 21 00z NAM/3kNAM.... they like the north band. 1 Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 21 Report Share Posted February 21 Every short term model is blasting western Iowa with 6-8”. Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 21 Report Share Posted February 21 00z RDPS Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 21 Report Share Posted February 21 00z GFS/GFSv16 Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 21 Report Share Posted February 21 00z GDPS Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 21 Report Share Posted February 21 00z UK Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 21 Report Share Posted February 21 NDFD 0z GFS Mean 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 21 Report Share Posted February 21 Scary how close I am to the south edge on most of the models. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 21 Report Share Posted February 21 00z Euro Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 21 Report Share Posted February 21 00Z Euro Kuchera- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 21 Report Share Posted February 21 RAP pounds (for this system at least) W.IA and mby--- and would put some of those locations just W of DSM very near 5' for the season. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 21 Report Share Posted February 21 Currently right around 53" mby-- DSM airport 52"+ Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 21 Report Share Posted February 21 06Z NAM going nuts- I guess it's going nuts at the right time. -- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 21 Report Share Posted February 21 3KM going nuts also. Would be sweet if this Warm air advection event turns into a warning. Many people will be totally caught off guard. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 21 Report Share Posted February 21 Latest RAP crushes W.IA- 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 21 Report Share Posted February 21 DMX just upped grids here to 4-6"!!! -- #makingtherunfor72" 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 21 Report Share Posted February 21 4-8" just to my West!!!! 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 21 Report Share Posted February 21 Latest RAP has jack zone imby!!! Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 21 Report Share Posted February 21 Lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 21 Report Share Posted February 21 DMX- thought about issuing warnings- but doesn't exactly know where heaviest bands will set up. Says areas of 3-5" will likely see pockets of 6-7". #ontheroadto72" .DISCUSSION.../Today through Saturday/ Issued at 358 AM CST Sun Feb 21 2021 Today: Long-wave trough that been developing over the western CONUS is beginning to split into two separate short-wave features with the first jet streak ejecting into the central Plains, and the second moving from the Four Corners Region into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. The northern jet streak and associated vorticity maxima has resulted in surface lee cyclogenesis in the last 12-18 hours and has phased well, allowing the surface cyclone to deepen. Ahead of the cyclone, stronger WAA has been ongoing between the Missouri River Valley and Mississippi River Valley, and isentropic ascent will continue to strengthen this morning. With H5 height falls ongoing across the forecast area, expect snow showers to begin developing and expanding across western Iowa after 4am or so, being aided by the isentropic ascent. As of 3am CST the OAX radar is already showing snow shower activity in eastern Nebraska. Still expecting the area with greatest snowfall accumulations to be along the Interstate 80 corridor and northward, then eventually dropping off north of Hwy. 18. There is a still a decent amount of uncertainty for precipitation south of Interstate 80. First, a discussion in the area with greater confidence in accumulating snow. This area will be along a line from Atlantic northeast to Ames to Waterloo. From a sounding perspective, snow will be the dominant precipitation type as the DGZ remains saturated, and the layer below maintains a RH above 85 percent with temperatures below freezing. Along and north of Interstate 80, there is no indication of a warm-nose above freezing. Further, there is also decent lift through the DGZ in this area, with omega ranging between -8 to -15. Interestingly, the 00z deterministic GFS/NAM do not depict overly robust frontogenetical processes within the deformation zone, as the surface cyclone center moves along the IA- MO border. With the strength of this short-wave and synoptic forcing, typically would expect there to be stronger frontogenesis. 00z deterministic ECMWF is similar. However, several of the 00z CAMs do have a band of stronger frontogenesis around 750mb from Atlantic to Waterloo. The HRRR for example produces multiple pockets of 6 to 7 inches within the wider swath of 4 to 6 inches along and north of Interstate 80. Further, multiple members of the 00z GEFS also hint at a wide swath of 4 to 6 inches, with pockets of 6 to 7 inches. The 00z HREF mean remains consistent with this swath of 4 to 6 and max values of 6 to 7. Given the strength of the synoptic system, the CAMs stronger frontogenesis bands within the deformation zone of the cyclone are credible, and therefore a reasonable solution. However while they have the general swath of heavier snow accumulations, the HRRR, NSSL WRF, NAM Nest, and other CAMs are not in complete agreement with where localized amounts of 6 to 7 inches may occur. Because snowfall amounts of 6 to 7 inches will be isolated and likely spaced apart by up to 30 miles in some instances, will continue to just maintain the Winter Weather Advisory for today. Trying to capture the locally higher amounts with a Winter Storm Warning would result in an unnecessarily large warning with respect to the areal extent of it. Instead, will simply highlight that the areas forecast to have 3 to 5 inches could see a few pockets of 6 to 7 inches. 12z-18z will be the time of highest snowfall rates for west-central and central Iowa, as HREF mean points to rates between 0.75-1.00 inch per hour. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 21 Report Share Posted February 21 HRRR caving to the RAP slowly but surely---- #ontheroadto72" Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 21 Report Share Posted February 21 Sweet!!--- Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 21 Report Share Posted February 21 Excellent!!! #ontheroadto72" Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 21 Report Share Posted February 21 Impressive Radar- 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 21 Author Report Share Posted February 21 17 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said: Excellent!!! #ontheroadto72" I “heart” you... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 21 Report Share Posted February 21 Latest HRRR going bonkers in C.IA - and we are only talking 7-8-9 hours out--- keep increasing!!! Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 21 Report Share Posted February 21 Looks like a big screw you eastern Iowa Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 21 Report Share Posted February 21 It's too bad that bulls-eye can't extend eastward into eastern Iowa. 3" would still be good, though. 1 Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 21 Report Share Posted February 21 LTG being reported S of OMA- 4 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 21 Report Share Posted February 21 12z NAM/3kNAM Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan1117 Posted February 21 Report Share Posted February 21 Woke up to a wall of big, fat flakes falling from the sky in Omaha... looks like about 3” down so far in my backyard with another inch or two to come. After melting some of our snowpack yesterday, we are adding back to it right now. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted February 21 Report Share Posted February 21 It is snowing unbelievably hard right now. Big 'ol fatties too. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erburns18 Posted February 21 Report Share Posted February 21 Snowing hard here 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted February 21 Report Share Posted February 21 Yesterday's NAM had this one right. Well past 2 inches already. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 21 Report Share Posted February 21 Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 842 AM CST Sun Feb 21 2021 IAZ043-055-056-069-079-NEZ034-045-052-053-212245- /O.UPG.KOAX.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-210222T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KOAX.WS.W.0003.210221T1442Z-210222T0000Z/ Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Burt-Washington- Douglas-Sarpy- Including the cities of Onawa, Mapleton, Missouri Valley, Woodbine, Logan, Dunlap, Harlan, Council Bluffs, Glenwood, Tekamah, Oakland, Lyons, Decatur, Blair, Omaha, Bellevue, Papillion, and La Vista 842 AM CST Sun Feb 21 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches. * WHERE...Portions of east central Nebraska and southwest and west central Iowa. * WHEN...Until 6 PM CST this evening. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 21 Report Share Posted February 21 I saw a 4” report from Omaha already. 3 Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 21 Report Share Posted February 21 12z RDPS Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 21 Report Share Posted February 21 Warnings issued for C.IA also!!! 5 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 21 Report Share Posted February 21 5" at epply as of 9am 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted February 21 Report Share Posted February 21 This is actually one of the coolest snowfalls we have had this year. It goes from super heavy rates to a break were it appears the snow is floating. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 21 Report Share Posted February 21 Not very good dendrites here for accumulation. Maybe an inch thus far but going to be hard pressed to get 3" out of this unless something changes. The warning I believe is mainly for areas just to my NW and N. Still time, but not looking like warning material here. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 21 Report Share Posted February 21 12z GFS/GFSv16/GDPS.... yes, we're into nowcast range, but after days of tracking it's nice to know each model's final prediction. I think every model has 2.5-3.5" for Cedar Rapids. 1 Quote season snowfall: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" '16-17: 17.9" '15-16: 20.0" '14-15: 30.4" '13-14: 48.3" '12-13: 34.1" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 21 Report Share Posted February 21 There’s a 6.5” report around Omaha. 2 Quote Season Snowfall: 39.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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