January 2015 Observations and Discussion

[Grizzcoat]

I agree. Just trying some reverse psychology on this "winter"-- as storm maps at that distance certainly don't work.

 

As far as football-People like to focus on the end of game-- Bostick mishap on the onside or the Dix no knockdown on the 2pt conversion,, but the 1st qt counts just as much as the 4th quarter when you add up the points.
Conservative Mike cost the Packers the game. Back to back-18 and 19yd field goals?? What kind of message does that send to your off and the C-hawks def?? You simply have to at least go for it on at least one of those instances. Too many points left on the table agst a good/great team and your asking for trouble. Conservative Mike took his foot off the gas. 6 consecutive plays mid to late 4th Q = 0 yards,, all running with one of the best QB's to ever play?? (now with a 6-5 post season record) Conservative Mike got out coached by Carroll. See fake FG which really turned the tide. Conservative Mike didn't even get to see the ball in OT-- thats what being conservative gets you in the playoffs--- And where was #57 on Seattle's last two scoring drives in the 4Q-- he was on the sidelines?? and then played in OT? What is up with that? Not #12's fault, but such an epic failure by the team should be referred to the "Discount Double Choke" in the future......

[GDR]

[WildWisconsinWeather]

I'm sure the state of Wisconsin is in a state of "shock and awe" to realize what just happened....almost like the Hawks losing Game 7 at the UC in OT last year...Packer World is devastated....

 

Yeah, there's at least one comparison with both the Blackhawks and Packers, both fanbases are filled with bandwagon fans lol.

[BLIZZARD09]

I am a Bears fan and even I am feeling bad about how the Packers lost

[BLIZZARD09]

Despite all the promise and hoopla I think the fat lady is ready to sing on this Winter

[Scott26]

It looks like the clipper on Tuesday could maybe give some of us an inch maybe two inches if lucky. We're stuck in this clipper pattern in the foreseeable future. We all may end up seeing a bit of snow, but nothing truly substantial for the rest of the month it looks like. I'm hoping in February we can all get to track a true powerhouse storm. 

[Tom]

It looks like the clipper on Tuesday could maybe give some of us an inch maybe two inches if lucky. We're stuck in this clipper pattern in the foreseeable future. We all may end up seeing a bit of snow, but nothing truly substantial for the rest of the month it looks like. I'm hoping in February we can all get to track a true powerhouse storm. 

12z Euro came in a little better for Tue/Wed...I wouldn't mind 1-2" to cover up the open grass spots...

[SE Wisconsin]

The fat lady may not be singing just yet, but I definitely am hearing her off in the wings starting to warm up.  According to the LRC pattern, looks like we have one last shot at some winter weather in early and mid February and that's it!   Maybe it's time to move on the start thinking about how this pattern will evolve into Spring and Summer.  Seems like lot's of questions and uncertainty.  Will these weak little impulses caught up on the NW flow be more juiced and amped up in the summer?  Will it be a variable pattern with alternating hot and dry then cool and wet?  Or perhaps cool and dry and warm and wet?  I think spring and summer will be a lot more interesting.

[Tom]

The fat lady may not be singing just yet, but I definitely am hearing her off in the wings starting to warm up.  According to the LRC pattern, looks like we have one last shot at some winter weather in early and mid February and that's it!   Maybe it's time to move on the start thinking about how this pattern will evolve into Spring and Summer.  Seems like lot's of questions and uncertainty.  Will these weak little impulses caught up on the NW flow be more juiced and amped up in the summer?  Will it be a variable pattern with alternating hot and dry then cool and wet?  Or perhaps cool and dry and warm and wet?  I think spring and summer will be a lot more interesting.

Actually, according to this year's 46 day LRC cycle, I'd be expecting a cold last half of February instead of an early/mid month arctic shot.  Going forward, the pattern over the lakes/east seems to be in line with colder weather like it was back in mid/late October and even though December was warm overall, it was cooler near the Lakes/East compared to the Plains and south.

[GDR]

What's that I hear? You say the fat lady is singing. Let's talk more football!

[gosaints]

GFS really backing off of the cold.  No way january finishes colder than last january around here

[Grizzcoat]

The 12Z Euro has a torch for IA from hr 180 to 234. At this point- I'am used to it. What a joke of a winter. 43F here and raining in the dead of winter.

[Tom]

This has been one of the most whackiest years watching ensembles, let alone operational model runs.  The last time I saw the Euro show such agreement of cold coming was back in late December for the Week 1-2 period in January which fit the cold phase of the LRC.  Last week the Euro was "gun hoe" on the cold in its ensembles for the last week of January, not anymore.  It's crazy to see ensembles flip so fast.  It's been a complicated weather pattern this year to forecast given the state of the MJO, EPO, AO, NAO, SSW...you name it.

[Snowlover76]

This has been one of the most whackiest years watching ensembles, let alone operational model runs.  The last time I saw the Euro show such agreement of cold coming was back in late December for the Week 1-2 period in January which fit the cold phase of the LRC.  Last week the Euro was "gun hoe" on the cold in its ensembles for the last week of January, not anymore.  It's crazy to see ensembles flip so fast.  It's been a complicated weather pattern this year to forecast given the state of the MJO, EPO, AO, NAO, SSW...you name it.

at least we know its pretty likely that next winter can't be this bad. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Really depressed about the winter.  It seems more than just the Nebraskans are frustrated compared to last winter.  I keep holding out hope that are best storm months around here seem to usually be February, March and April.  With the way this winter is going, who knows.

[Yerf]

it's hard to believe Chicago has 13.7" on the season

 

check out this link on snowfall totals for other cities

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lot&storyid=106305&source=0

[Maxim]

Models keep shifting the brunt of the cold for the end of the month further to the east.

[Grizzcoat]

This is the biggest bust from JB or "Weatherbell" for the Plains/Midwest since Jan 2006. No way WB's  forecast even comes close to being below normal as it was forecasted so in late last Fall. If trends continue-- it may surpass Jan 2006 as a Royal Flush. And WB did so well last winter. Just goes to show ya who is boss..

[Niko]

Bad news for those who live in Nebraska and Iowa. Looks like more suffering to be continued. TWC is predicting above normal temps from Feb-Apr, which will spell out Rain to be more likely than Snow, or maybe a mix to Rain.. East from there, temps are forecasted to be below normal, which snow seems more likely. Lets see how that plays out,. My temps stay below normal with a few chances of snow down the road.I still have some snowcover, even with that weak thaw that passed on through this weekend.

[East Dubzz]

Yeah, while maybe they're gonna be right, I prefer not to pay attention to TWC.

[Grizzcoat]

As far as TWC is concerned -- even a broken clock is right twice a day. I fear this late winter ( wow late winter allready?) and spring TWC will be correct. Lets call a spade a spade-- nearly all who called for cold/snow in this part of the lower 48 have been wrong. That would be me included. Being stubborn is one thing-- realizing an error is another.

[Maxim]

Bad news for those who live in Nebraska and Iowa. Looks like more suffering to be continued. TWC is predicting above normal temps from Feb-Apr, which will spell out Rain to be more likely than Snow, or maybe a mix to Rain.. East from there, temps are forecasted to be below normal, which snow seems more likely. Lets see how that plays out,. My temps stay below normal with a few chances of snow down the road.I still have some snowcover, even with that weak thaw that passed on through this weekend.

lol come on... you can't put any stock into TWC.

[Niko]

lol come on... you can't put any stock into TWC.

I never do...but the funny thing is that sometimes they end up being correct not too often, so, I try to give them a little credit, not a lot. You are right though, you cannot put any stock into them.

[Scott26]

Anybody here watching the Bulls game? Definitely a hard one to watch so far. At least Drose is heating up so hopefully the Bulls can come back.

[james1976]

As much as i love snowstorms and tracking them, I almost dont even care anymore about this winter. Its been a dud and doesnt look to change heading into Feb. Im still hoping for something good to pop up but if spring comes early I wont be mad.

DMX calling for 1-2" tomorrow night from this clipper but we'll see.

[Maxim]

I hope I don't get any snow from the clipper.

[Niko]

Next week the east coast could be looking at a big storm. Possible big snowstorm, so heads up D.C, Philly, NYC and Boston. Midwest is probably a  miss. Will see what happens. As for now, it seems that the SE Ridge will let go a bit.

[gosaints]

wow what a snoozer of a pattern setting up

[gosaints]

Average high temp at my closest site (rochester) is 25 right now.  Should beat that every day through at least next tuesday

[Tom]

Next week the east coast could be looking at a big storm. Possible big snowstorm, so heads up D.C, Philly, NYC and Boston. Midwest is probably a  miss. Will see what happens. As for now, it seems that the SE Ridge will let go a bit.

Yup, this is when the east coast was seeing their systems in early December.  We have to wait a bit for our next chances for big storms.  Hoping to cash in on some of these clippers.

[james1976]

Local mets calling for 1-2" tonight and saying something about a bigger system for the weekend. What would that be? A clipper? I havent looked at models too much lately.

[Snowlover76]

Yup, this is when the east coast was seeing their systems in early December.  We have to wait a bit for our next chances for big storms.  Hoping to cash in on some of these clippers.

stupid question, but will it ever get cold again here in eastern NE? at least get cold if it aint gonna snow. 

[Maxim]

I'd rather take nothing than just 1-2" of snow.

[Maxim]

stupid question, but will it ever get cold again here in eastern NE? at least get cold if it aint gonna snow.

 

Cold and dry? That's the worst combination you can have. Not sure why you would want the cold if it's not going to snow. I'd be rooting for a torch.

[Tom]

stupid question, but will it ever get cold again here in eastern NE? at least get cold if it aint gonna snow. 

Your chance is coming in about a week or so.  The energetic system back on Dec 14-16th we saw dive into the 4 corners region will be cycling through by early next week.  Then the pattern turns cold and stormy for a good 3 week period in Feb.

[BigDizBliz420]

i was reading that the cycle stuff doesn't work and not used by real mets

[gosaints]

Your chance is coming in about a week or so.  The energetic system back on Dec 14-16th we saw dive into the 4 corners region will be cycling through by early next week.  Then the pattern turns cold and stormy for a good 3 week period in Feb.

I hope you score a coup on this one....

[Tom]

Anyone remember the Halloween system???  It's coming back this weekend and would be nice if it could lay down a decent swath of accumulating snows.  Maybe even turn winds down the lake and get a decent Lake Enhanced snowfall.

[Grizzcoat]

Local mets calling for 1-2" tonight and saying something about a bigger system for the weekend. What would that be? A clipper? I havent looked at models too much lately.

Yes. It seems to be gaining a little steam each run. But remember in most years it wouldn't be that big of a deal. I will post some maps if the trend continues.

[Tom]

i was reading that the cycle stuff doesn't work and not used by real mets

TBH, its been the most accurate forecasting mechanism for this winter as a whole.  Models last week were jumping on an arctic attack late this month and have since subsided.  Utilizing the LRC, you would have known that was not happening and folks near the Lakes/East were cooler than those in the Plains/Midwest.  The LRC is relatively new and therefore the majority of mets don't use it or don't even know about it.