January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[snow_wizard]

Hah, an opinion piece littered with inaccuracies. I love how the writer uses a couple of dry years in the Western US as prima facie evidence that we're all doomed. Dooooomed!

 

The article is obviously absurd.  It was only a few years ago the Cascades were consistently seeing near record snowfalls pretty consistently.

[snow_wizard]

0z is running!

 

Could it be time to cue the Jaws music?

[Phil]

Could it be time to cue the Jaws music?

Not yet, but I have the track ready in case early/mid February decides to perform..40/60 chance?

[Deweydog]

Not yet, but I have the track ready in case early/mid February decides to perform..40/60 chance?

Colder and snowier version of February 1991???

[Phil]

Colder and snowier version of February 1991???

Lol

[wx_statman]

Plus, 2008-09 was such a cornucopia of good side events it's hard not to think we're still a long way from paying off that tab.

2008-09 was a bit of an outlier though.

[Deweydog]

2008-09 was a bit of an outlier though.

Outliers one way or another have to get smoothed out though in the long run.

[MossMan]

How did the 0z look?

[HighlandExperience]

I doubt that.  We've had terrible winters in the distant past also.  As I've mentioned before the winters from 1937-38 through 1941-42 rivals any horrible 5 winter period we have had in recent times.  The big wild card is the coming solar grand minimum.  We will soon find out just how much of a factor that was in causing the Little Ice Age.

 

I kinda posted it as a joke. You are right, the article is silly, but after two lackluster winters it makes you feel pessimistic 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

How did the 0z look?

 

Hopeless for January--at least through 240 hours.  Need the energy in the GOA to die down.

[GHweatherChris]

Hopeless for January--at least through 240 hours.  Need the energy in the GOA to die down.

No hope til February, and Phil said earlier that we have a 40 percent chance, of course if things go right.

 

That is a ballsy call.

[Bryant]

Hopeless for January--at least through 240 hours. Need the energy in the GOA to die down.

The GOA low is a product of the convection associated with the MJO over the west Pacific. That will calm down in the next couple weeks as the wave dies and the pattern resets.

[Deweydog]

No hope til February, and Phil said earlier that we have a 40 percent chance, of course if things go right.

 

That is a ballsy call.

 

I think he's throwing spaghetti at the wall at the moment.  

[Bryant]

I think he's throwing spaghetti at the wall at the moment.

Sometimes that's the only way to know if they're fully cooked!

[Deweydog]

Sometimes that's the only way to know if they're fully cooked!

 

Might be the best way to tell if our winter is fully cooked!  LOLOLOLOL!

[wx_statman]

Outliers one way or another have to get smoothed out though in the long run.

Regardless, 12/29/09 was the last borderline setup that really came through for us in the snow department. We're probably due.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

The GOA low is a product of the convection associated with the MJO over the west Pacific. That will calm down in the next couple weeks as the wave dies and the pattern resets.

 

I'm not a great MJO guy like you and Phil, but I do understand the fundamentals--and I think I would agree with your assessment.  Good call!

[Deweydog]

Regardless, 12/29/09 was the last borderline setup that really came through for us in the snow department. We're probably due.

Could be, although for us January 2012 probably qualifies as we were supposed to be just on the short end of things pretty much completely but ended up with a quick six inches or so.

[Phil]

No hope til February, and Phil said earlier that we have a 40 percent chance, of course if things go right.

 

That is a ballsy call.

Instead of taking others' comments out of context, maybe try making a forecast of your own?

[Phil]

Forcing retrograde all but assures the return of a -EPO to close out January. Problem is unlike the -AAM integral response in the tropics last time, now we have a +AAM response. We know what that means..

 

#polewardtransport #ElNino

[GHweatherChris]

Instead of taking others' comments out of context, maybe try making a forecast of your own?

Not worth my time, but thanks for the suggestion.

[GHweatherChris]

Forcing retrograde all but assures the return of a -EPO to close out January. Problem is unlike the -AAM integral response in the tropics last time, now we have a +AAM response. We know what that means..

 

#polewardtransport #ElNino

Nothing worked out(other than a brief cold intrusion) with the late December cold snap with the right things in line here in the PNW, so who knows, maybe the next round will be epic here with no indices matching up they way they "should".

 

This is not a smart a** comment towards you Phil, just a thought.

[Phil]

Nothing worked out(other than a brief cold intrusion) with the late December cold snap with the right things in line here in the PNW, so who knows, maybe the next round will be epic here with no indices matching up they way they "should".

 

This is not a smart a** comment towards you Phil, just a thought.

Could be. Happened in 2013-14 (-PNA/-EPO/+NAO under a strong +QBO/-AAM transport base).

 

Looking at the mesosphere right now, it's pretty clear that solar has screwed with things..not your typical -QBO eddy flux either.

[GHweatherChris]

Could be. Happened in 2013-14 (-PNA/-EPO/+NAO under a strong +QBO/-AAM transport base).

 

Looking at the mesosphere right now, it's pretty clear that solar has screwed with things..not your typical -QBO eddy flux either.

Things just feel off with the weather this winter season.

[Phil]

Things just feel off with the weather this winter season.

That's because they are, lol. Preconditioning for a pretty big climate shift in a few years.

 

Fall/Winter 2014-15:

 

1) Record low Walker/Hadley intensity ratio

2) Record poleward eddy flux

3) Record -QBO in the stratification process

[Deweydog]

That's because they are..preconditioning for a climate shift.

 

1) Record low Walker/Hadley intensity ratio

2) Record poleward eddy flux

3) Record -QBO in the stratification process

 

To name a few of many oddities this year..just wait until solar starts declining

Big article about these very issues in the National Enquirer today.

[Phil]

Big article about these very issues in the National Enquirer today.

Plenty of depositions to take here I'll link you to the literature if you're interested in reading it

[Deweydog]

Plenty of depositions to take here I'll link you to the literature if you're interested in reading it

I'm fine, thanks. I don't mind being one of the clueless millions who will be swept into ice age chaos with little or no warning.

[Phil]

I thought lawyers loved vague subjectivities? This should be right up your alley.

[Deweydog]

I thought lawyers loved vague subjectivities..?

Depends on where within the law you make your bread.

[Phil]

Depends on where within the law you make your bread.

So you're a prosecutor?

[Deweydog]

So you're a prosecutor?

Let's just say most of my litigation days were spent tearing holes in vague subjectives.

[Phil]

Should've figured. There's a reason I quit law, haha.

[Deweydog]

Should've figured. There's a reason I quit law, haha.

It's not for everybody. If it was my house would probably be a lot smaller.

[TT-SEA]

Nice week considering 4 inches of rain fell at my house. I have no complaints about focusing the rain and then having 4 days of sunny or partly sunny weather with highs in the 50s. I would take that every time over 5 days of drizzle adding up to half an inch for the week.

[HighlandExperience]

Let's just say most of my litigation days were spent tearing holes in vague subjectives.

 

So you were one of those big guys in prison. 

[Deweydog]

So you were one of those big guys in prison.

Think Edward Norton in American History X.

[GHweatherChris]

Should've figured. There's a reason I quit law, haha.

How old are you?

[MossMan]

This guy made the mistake to look at the forum tonight on his phone before driving to Wendy's for dinner...he never made it to Wendy's. This weather is beyond a snooze fest.

[BLI snowman]

Regardless, 12/29/09 was the last borderline setup that really came through for us in the snow department. We're probably due.

 

3/21/2012 was pretty nice down there. Widespread 1-3" in the Portland area with a northward sagging cold front. Even if it did melt the next afternoon, it was a pretty unique setup.