January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

This guy made the mistake to look at the forum tonight on his phone before driving to Wendy's for dinner...he never made it to Wendy's. This weather is beyond a snooze fest.

That was taken at dinner time? Man, that sun angle is creeping up fast!

[luvssnow_spokane]

This guy made the mistake to look at the forum tonight on his phone before driving to Wendy's for dinner...he never made it to Wendy's. This weather is beyond a snooze fest.

. I am sooo embarrassed you put that picture of me up. You said you would'nt... This current weather pattern put my narcolepsy into overdrive. And it was so warm I had no reason to wear a shirt.

[Phil]

Great 3-D/layered animation of the 2012 SSW/PV breakdown I found on YouTube, for those interested:

[wx_statman]

3/21/2012 was pretty nice down there. Widespread 1-3" in the Portland area with a northward sagging cold front. Even if it did melt the next afternoon, it was a pretty unique setup.

 

Speaking of outliers. There were five different systems that produced snow in Portland that month. That's hard to do even in DJF.

[westiztehbest]

[Jesse]

How old are you?

 

Good question. His timeline has never made sense to me.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Good question. His timeline has never made sense to me.

I want to say 32.

[Jesse]

I want to say 32.

 

Retired at 32? Impressive.

[stuffradio]

Retired at 32? Impressive.

I want to say 42.

[MossMan]

12z! Or 12zzzzzz? I'm guessing the second one since nobody is mentioning it.

 

Go Seahawks!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah the winter snooze fest continues. Go Panthers. Go Ducks.

 

I'm okay with the Seahawks winning. LOVE Cam Newton though.

[MossMan]

Yeah the winter snooze fest continues. Go Panthers. Go Ducks.

 

I'm okay with the Seahawks winning. LOVE Cam Newton though.

That's like rooting for an Arctic Blast in the east!

[Phil]

23.

Man, I wish.

[MossMan]

Man, I wish.

38?

[Phil]

Just to be clear, I never practiced law as a profession. I did study it, and considered it as a profession until I realized how boring it was. I don't know how Dewey gets through his day.

[Phil]

38?

33.5 years young. Mr. Snowmizer nailed me.

[wx_statman]

33.5 years young. Mr. Snowmizer nailed me.

33.5? I think once you get past about 10 you're supposed to use whole numbers for your age!

[Phil]

33.5? I think once you get past about 10 you're supposed to use whole numbers for your age!

Ha, well I'm a young retiree, so I'm compelled to shake any suppositions.

[Phil]

I'll say this..without my lady, I'd probably still be working.

[chinook]

I'll say this..without my lady, I'd probably still be working.

 

 

At your age...it must suck living with your mother.

 

Soupy morning.  38f.

[snow_wizard]

Speaking of outliers. There were five different systems that produced snow in Portland that month. That's hard to do even in DJF.

 

The setup was like a poor man's March 1951.  We had that ridiculous anomalous trough over the PNW and the eastern half of the NE Pacific.  We even had an ok amount of snow here that month, but not like they had in NW OR.

[snow_wizard]

12z! Or 12zzzzzz? I'm guessing the second one since nobody is mentioning it.

 

Go Seahawks!

 

The only good thing to say right now is the GFS ensemble is picking up on a retrogression at the end of the month.  We may have one more shot at something in very late Jan or early Feb.

[snow_wizard]

 

Really surprising to see it picking up on something that soon.  I have seen the CFS outdo the GFS in the short term (relatively speaking) a couple of times, but it's not common.

[wx_statman]

The setup was like a poor man's March 1951.  We had that ridiculous anomalous trough over the PNW and the eastern half of the NE Pacific.  We even had an ok amount of snow here that month, but not like they had in NW OR.

March 2012 was one of the most extreme months on record in the lower 48. You had the ridiculous "summer in March" heat wave east of the Rockies. Only time in history that 90 degree heat in Michigan and heavy snow in the Willamette Valley occurred in the same week.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The 12Z ECMWF looks alright, much better than anything showing up in the GFS.

 

Storm potential:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015011012/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_8.png

 

Ridge popping up further offshore with energy riding over, that'd be a nice change:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015011012/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_11.png

[SilverFallsAndrew]

March 2012 was one of the most extreme months on record in the lower 48. You had the ridiculous "summer in March" heat wave east of the Rockies. Only time in history that 90 degree heat in Michigan and heavy snow in the Willamette Valley occurred in the same week.

I had more snow at my place in march 2012 than the past 2 1/2 winters combined...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'd like to see some Aleutian ridging at some point.

[jaya]

The 12Z ECMWF looks alright, much better than anything showing up in the GFS.

 

Storm potential:

 

Ridge popping up further offshore with energy riding over, that'd be a nice change:

 

Hearing all this talk about how boring the weather is.  NOT!!!

 

Look at that ECMWF. Look at the Canadian.  It looks to me that we are getting ready to move into a storm cycle here in the NW with wind, big coastal waves, potentially heavy precipitation at times -- all to be followed by possible retrogression and amplification of the flow in the long term (though the ridge may be too close to support arctic air.  It will be fun to see how things work out.

[snow_wizard]

Hearing all this talk about how boring the weather is.  NOT!!!

 

Look at that ECMWF. Look at the Canadian.  It looks to me that we are getting ready to move into a storm cycle here in the NW with wind, big coastal waves, potentially heavy precipitation at times -- all to be followed by possible retrogression and amplification of the flow in the long term (though the ridge may be too close to support arctic air.  It will be fun to see how things work out.

 

We'll see.

[snow_wizard]

I'd like to see some Aleutian ridging at some point.

 

I would say we are certainly due for some!

[Phil]

I'd like to see some Aleutian ridging at some point.

Next winter will feature a lot of that (+QBO) if we can manage a neutral ENSO or La Niña.

 

This winter..lol

[Bryant]

Next winter will feature a lot of that (+QBO) if we can manage a neutral ENSO or La Niña

 

This winter..lol

-QBO seems to aid in shifting the WC into a more Nina'ish regime which would support Aleutian ridging. How does a +QBO support this idea more so?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yet more omniscience. Amazing.

 

I am OMNIPRESENT. 

[wx_statman]

I had more snow at my place in march 2012 than the past 2 1/2 winters combined...

That's pretty sad.

[wx_statman]

I am OMNIPRESENT.

 

Can I pray to you??

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Can I pray to you??

 

Only if you want a better world.

[Phil]

-QBO seems to aid in shifting the WC into a more Nina'ish regime which would support Aleutian ridging. How does a +QBO support this idea more so?

Yep, the -QBO/+solar combo will give Niños a hard time..that one of the reasons I was lol'ing at NASA's call for a "Super Niño" based on that big KW.

 

The QBO alters poleward AAM transport and Hadley/Walker cell intensity via vertical wave guidance/thermal wind. In La Nada/La Niña, your end result in a +QBO is a stronger/poleward Aleutian ridge.

 

Recent +QBO Niñas/Nadas: 2008-09, 2010-11, and 2013-14.

Recent -QBO Niñas/Nadas: 2005-06, 2007-08, and 2011-12.

 

See a trend there in the NPAC?

 

Relationship is different in El Niño..solar is also much more of a factor in El Niño, for many reasons. But you still should always adjust for solar when applying the QBO, because it messes with the thermal winds, within the SAO domain in particular.

[snow_wizard]

That's pretty sad.

 

It really is.  It appeared we were coming out of our winter funk in the 2006-07 through 2011-2012 period but since then it has been terrible for snowfall...at least in this area.  Last winter really underscores our ongoing problem in getting region wide significant snowfalls.  This winter, at least to this point, is just more region wide disappointment. 

[snow_wizard]

Alters poleward AAM transport and Hadley/Walker cell intensity via vertical wave guidance/thermal wind. In La Nada/La Niña, your end result in a +QBO is a stronger/poleward Aleutian ridge.

 

Recent +QBO Niñas/Nadas: 2008-09, 2010-11, and 2013-14.

Recent -QBO Niñas/Nadas: 2005-06, 2007-08, and 2011-12.

 

See a trend there in the NPAC?

 

Relationship is different in El Niño..solar is also much more of a factor in El Niño, for many reasons. But you still should always adjust for solar when applying the QBO, because it messes with the thermal winds, within the SAO domain in particular.

 

No doubt the Aleutian ridging was more robust in the +QBO examples.  By next winter the solar should really be dying out which should help regardless of ENSO.

[Phil]

No doubt the Aleutian ridging was more robust in the +QBO examples. By next winter the solar should really be dying out which should help regardless of ENSO.

Low solar would help with EPO/AO if it's low in the July-Nobember period. I want to see what ENSO does before making any calls for next winter, but it looks backloaded to me already, at least in the west.