January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[richard mann]

I am OMNIPRESENT.

Do you have a "Smart Phone". ?

 

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2012/12/can-smartphone-observations.html

[snow_wizard]

Low solar would help with EPO/AO if it's low in the July-Nobember period. I want to see what ENSO does before making any calls for next winter, but it looks backloaded to me already.

 

As far as I know the CFS is the only model showing a Nino for next winter and it's showing a doosy.  On the other hand it has been showing El Nino winters for the last 5 years now and it was only right once.

[Phil]

El Niño is favored in the means during/just after solar max. Thing is, given the weak cycle, we're on a threshold where the relevant solar forcings aren't enough to finish the job..hence the lack of an ENSO signal altogether for the last 3 years and counting. Starting to think 2015-16 could be yet another ENSO neutral winter, or maybe a weak La Niña? I'm not sure we make it down to La Niña in time, though..

[Front Ranger]

The setup was like a poor man's March 1951.  We had that ridiculous anomalous trough over the PNW and the eastern half of the NE Pacific.  We even had an ok amount of snow here that month, but not like they had in NW OR.

 

Yeah, but you did much better in January than NW OR did.

[wx_statman]

Only if you want a better world.

 

It only needs to be better for me. That's the only world I care about. LOL!

[Front Ranger]

Hearing all this talk about how boring the weather is.  NOT!!!

 

Look at that ECMWF. Look at the Canadian.  It looks to me that we are getting ready to move into a storm cycle here in the NW with wind, big coastal waves, potentially heavy precipitation at times -- all to be followed by possible retrogression and amplification of the flow in the long term (though the ridge may be too close to support arctic air.  It will be fun to see how things work out.

 

It does look like a more active and probably cooler pattern is coming by day 7. Significant mountain snow possible. Here's the 12z Euro ensembles for days 6-10. Blowtorch likely for much of the rest of the nation.

 

 

 

Ensembles are all over the place after day 10, no real good signal. But flattish ridging looks possible, and offshore amplification sometimes follows.

[wx_statman]

It really is.  It appeared we were coming out of our winter funk in the 2006-07 through 2011-2012 period but since then it has been terrible for snowfall...at least in this area.  Last winter really underscores our ongoing problem in getting region wide significant snowfalls.  This winter, at least to this point, is just more region wide disappointment. 

 

Last season was really ironic in the sense that the lowlands scored big at least here in Oregon while the mountains were snow starved. That's a pretty rare combination. At least this year everyone is starving for snow regardless of elevation. Balance!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Last season was really ironic in the sense that the lowlands scored big at least here in Oregon while the mountains were snow starved. That's a pretty rare combination. At least this year everyone is starving for snow regardless of elevation. Balance!

 

The Willamette Valley from Salem south to Eugene had as much or more snow than I did last winter. My only good storm was the one in February and there were many near sea level locations that had as much if not more snow than I did with that. In fact I mixed out a full 24 hours before Salem did because of the warm sliver of air that moved up the foothills. 

 

The last really good cold onshore flow pattern I had was in December 2012. I had about 5 minor 1-3" snow events in a two week period. The winter of 2011-12 was great up here with cold onshore flow. I believe I had 29 days with measurable snowfall that winter. I had measurable snow in every month from November through April that winter, except for December.

[wx_statman]

Last five days in Chicago:

 

6/-3

10/-5

6/-5

18/-8

11/1

 

While we're sitting under an inversion with spring like weather in the Cascades.

 

Its January 2014 all over again.

[Front Ranger]

Last season was really ironic in the sense that the lowlands scored big at least here in Oregon while the mountains were snow starved. That's a pretty rare combination. At least this year everyone is starving for snow regardless of elevation. Balance!

 

No doubt. Might have been the best Eugene and Salem have ever done in relation to the mountains. 1972-73 is probably the closest comparison.

[MossMan]

Last five days in Chicago:

 

6/-3

10/-5

6/-5

18/-8

11/1

 

While we're sitting under an inversion with spring like weather in the Cascades.

 

Its January 2014 all over again.

It would be amazing to experience a high of 6 here in the Puget Sound area!

[wx_statman]

The Willamette Valley from Salem south to Eugene had as much or more snow than I did last winter. My only good storm was the one in February and there were many near sea level locations that had as much if not more snow than I did with that. In fact I mixed out a full 24 hours before Salem did because of the warm sliver of air that moved up the foothills. 

 

The last really good cold onshore flow pattern I had was in December 2012. I had about 5 minor 1-3" snow events in a two week period. The winter of 2011-12 was great up here with cold onshore flow. I believe I had 29 days with measurable snowfall that winter. I had measurable snow in every month from November through April that winter, except for December.

 

The difference at Government Camp was incredible. 78.5" in December 2012 to 7.7" in December 2013. Some areas around Eugene had more snow in December 2013 than Government Camp.

[Front Ranger]

Last five days in Chicago:

 

6/-3

10/-5

6/-5

18/-8

11/1

 

While we're sitting under an inversion with spring like weather in the Cascades.

 

Its January 2014 all over again.

 

Chicago had a ridiculous winter in 2013-14, as did most Midwest locations. They had a -4 departure in December, -8 in January, and -10 in February. With tons of snow.

[wx_statman]

No doubt. Might have been the best Eugene and Salem have ever done in relation to the mountains. 1972-73 is probably the closest comparison.

 

You might be right, especially in the modern era. The real stinkers in the mountains usually stink in the lowlands too! Winters like 1980-81, 1991-92, and 2004-05 come to mind. Last winter was special.

[snow_wizard]

It would be amazing to experience a high of 6 here in the Puget Sound area!

 

I think Whatcom County is the only place in the Western lowlands capable of that.  Clearbrook had a high of 4 in one of our cold snaps.  Mid teens (which the Puget Sound area is capable of) is still bloody cold though!

[wx_statman]

Chicago had a ridiculous winter in 2013-14, as did most Midwest locations. They had a -4 departure in December, -8 in January, and -10 in February. With tons of snow.

 

Last winter was a beast in the Midwest. A real throwback to the good old days.

 

It will be our turn someday!

[Deweydog]

You might be right, especially in the modern era. The real stinkers in the mountains usually stink in the lowlands too! Winters like 1980-81, 1991-92, and 2004-05 come to mind. Last winter was special.

This winter has basically been the same in that the only whiffs we've had at cold air has been amost entirely due to continental influence. This year the small details just haven't been there for snowfall.

[wx_statman]

I think Whatcom County is the only place in the Western lowlands capable of that.  Clearbrook had a high of 4 in one of our cold snaps.  Mid teens (which the Puget Sound area is capable of) is still bloody cold though!

 

Clearbrook supposedly had a high of 0 in January 1911. That one looks kinda sketchy though. January 1893 had highs around 0 in the Fraser Valley too, with 7 at Olga.

[wx_statman]

This winter has basically been the same in that the only whiffs we've had at cold air has been amost entirely due to continental influence. This year the small details just haven't been there for snowfall.

 

The last two winters have felt VERY similar. I keep flashing back to last January whenever I'm outside. Its weird.

[jaya]

It does look like a more active and probably cooler pattern is coming by day 7. Significant mountain snow possible. Here's the 12z Euro ensembles for days 6-10. Blowtorch likely for much of the rest of the nation.

 

12zeuroens.png

 

Ensembles are all over the place after day 10, no real good signal. But flattish ridging looks possible, and offshore amplification sometimes follows.

I guess my point was, cold and snow is only a small aspect of interesting weather.  Wind, rain, etc. can be very exciting as well.  I see so many posts complaining about the lack of weather (cold and snow) while we look beyond what could be a very exciting period in the day 4-6 zone.  By the way, once the storms blow through in the mid range, there really is no way to tell exactly how things will evolve. But ridging and long wave retrogression is not uncommon. Models beyond day 6-7 mean nada right now.

[jaya]

By the way, in my 23 years here in the NW, I have seen quite a few years with only a couple of inches of snow (in my convergence zone area) and out of season at that. I think that is the climate here!  Why complain, enjoy!  I love my low heating bills. The mountains sure are beautiful.  How about the valley fog!  Want to see boring weather, go to San Diego, Key West, Brownsville Texas, ....

[MossMan]

By the way, in my 23 years here in the NW, I have seen quite a few years with only a couple of inches of snow (in my convergence zone area) and out of season at that. I think that is the climate here! Why complain, enjoy! I love my low heating bills. The mountains sure are beautiful. How about the valley fog! Want to see boring weather, go to San Diego, Key West, Brownsville Texas, ....

My wife just opened up our PUD bill this morning and had a mini meltdown, i had to remind her that the billing cycle included 3 arctic intrusions.

[BLI snowman]

Clearbrook supposedly had a high of 0 in January 1911. That one looks kinda sketchy though. January 1893 had highs around 0 in the Fraser Valley too, with 7 at Olga.

 

January 1909 had a high of 5 at Olga and January 13, 1950 had the high of 4 at BLI. 

[jaya]

My wife just opened up our PUD bill this morning and had a mini meltdown, i had to remind her that the billing cycle included 3 arctic intrusions.

I came here from the midwest.  You haven't seen a heating bill till you've seen something like what they have in Chicago.  Our hydroelectric is cheaper than anything they use there. (We don't use AC in the summer either). We really have a very nice climate (with interest from time to time), you just need to change your standards.

[Front Ranger]

I came here from the midwest.  You haven't seen a heating bill till you've seen something like what they have in Chicago.  Our hydroelectric is cheaper than anything they use there. (We don't use AC in the summer either). We really have a very nice climate (with interest from time to time), you just need to change your standards.

 

That's what I love about the climate here. It gets cold and it gets snowy, but it never stays super cold for real long. Heating bills are rarely intolerable.

[HighlandExperience]

The weather today is depressing. The whole area is enveloped in a thick soupy fog with light drizzle. Currently 30 degrees at Stevens Pass with Fog and light drizzle. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like some arctic air in late February according to the CFS.

[jaya]

The weather today is depressing. The whole area is enveloped in a thick soupy fog with light drizzle. Currently 30 degrees at Stevens Pass with Fog and light drizzle. 

Yep, kind of dark and dreary today. But I was in CO for a month in the summer when I never saw a cloud. The brightness (likely due to elevation as well as time of year) was searing. I remember getting home to stratus... ahhhh.  Gotten used to it!

[jaya]

That's what I love about the climate here. It gets cold and it gets snowy, but it never stays super cold for real long. Heating bills are rarely intolerable.

I have seen better and much heavier snow here in the NW than when I lived in the midwest. Even during one of their "snowstorms" I'd never see more than 8-10 inches of snow - then it would all get blown into piles under trees or in valleys, while the hilltops and fields would quickly go nearly bare.  I've seen 8 inches in a couple hours here in the convergence zone - in the end of April!  I've had several 10+ inch snowfalls in 24 hours since I got here in the early 90s.  Temps below 20 are rare (we have more palm trees here than I had where I lived on the Gulf coast)...there they would die out with their occasional major freeze and they would have to import them to make it look like Florida!  We really are blessed here.

[Phil]

It does look like a more active and probably cooler pattern is coming by day 7. Significant mountain snow possible. Here's the 12z Euro ensembles for days 6-10. Blowtorch likely for much of the rest of the nation.

 

12zeuroens.png

 

Ensembles are all over the place after day 10, no real good signal. But flattish ridging looks possible, and offshore amplification sometimes follows.

There's a 4-5 day US thaw coming, which will be followed by a return to Central US troughing as the Pacific forcing retracts. Just accept it..life will be much easier for you.

[Front Ranger]

Yep, kind of dark and dreary today. But I was in CO for a month in the summer when I never saw a cloud. The brightness (likely due to elevation as well as time of year) was searing. I remember getting home to stratus... ahhhh.  Gotten used to it!

 

What part? That's not the case at all around here. Frequent summer thunderstorms.

[jaya]

What part? That's not the case at all around here. Frequent summer thunderstorms.

I was in Boulder. There may have been a TSTM or two - I never saw them. Maybe I was there in a good drought year.

[Phil]

I have seen better and much heavier snow here in the NW than when I lived in the midwest. Even during one of their "snowstorms" I'd never see more than 8-10 inches of snow - then it would all get blown into piles under trees or in valleys, while the hilltops and fields would quickly go nearly bare. I've seen 8 inches in a couple hours here in the convergence zone - in the end of April! I've had several 10+ inch snowfalls in 24 hours since I got here in the early 90s. Temps below 20 are rare (we have more palm trees here than I had where I lived on the Gulf coast)...there they would die out with their occasional major freeze and they would have to import them to make it look like Florida! We really are blessed here.

The Midwest sucks for big single-storm snow totals..it's essentially a cold, heartless desert in the winter. Not that much better here in terms of cold, either..we've been struggling to get out of the single digits here for the last week.

[Front Ranger]

I was in Boulder. There may have been a TSTM or two - I never saw them. Maybe I was there in a good drought year.

 

Yeah, that's really odd. Boulder averages considerably more rain in the summer than the PNW. During active monsoon seasons, it can be positively wet. It's never completely dry for a whole month...though 2002 and 2008 came close.

 

But even when it doesn't rain, most afternoons have some convection and clouds form over the mountains and drift out over the plains. Your description certainly doesn't match the normal summer climate here.

[BLI snowman]

The Midwest sucks for big single-storm snow totals..it's essentially a cold, heartless desert in the winter. Not that much better here in terms of cold, either..we've been struggling to get out of the single digits here for the last week.

 

They destroy MD for severe weather and cold. I'd take Wisconsin's climate over your's pretty easily.

[Front Ranger]

They destroy MD for severe weather and cold. I'd take Wisconsin's climate over your's pretty easily.

 

Wisconsin is too cold for my liking, but I agree. Especially in the summer. Though western MD is considerably different than eastern.

[Front Ranger]

Having actually lived there, this isn't the case. Plenty of 6-12 in storms through out the inter and always a nice spring storm. I'm hoping that I pick up a job in Minneasota mainly for that climate.

 

Yeah, some really odd descriptions of regional climates on here today. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Go Hawks!!

[bainbridgekid]

Go Hawks!!

It's gonna be a quiet 3 hours.

[richard mann]

... Just accept it..life will be much easier for you.

"Philosophy 101" then, Right. ?

 

(Pun intended or otherwise. You decide. Can't draw the distinction myself.)