Tom Posted February 17, 2015 Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 Most models/ensembles are targeting another short wave/system to develop in the Plains states and head ENE towards the OV/Lower Lakes. Phasing/Track/Intensity are still up in the air as there is much disagreement in the placement of the heaviest snow band among the models. Let's discuss this storm potential. IMO, the transitioning PNA towards neutral/negative territory seems to be leading models to take a track west of the Appalachians. If we can get a better phase, we could have a stronger storm. This would be a classic Pan Handle Hook but teleconnections don't really support a very strong/dynamic storm. Still plenty of time to see how this one pans out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 17, 2015 Report Share Posted February 17, 2015 Hope this one works out better than last week for the sake of our sanity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 By tomorrow night, this energy should be onshore in NW Canada/British Columbia and will have better data. Wouldn't be surprised to see some interesting runs tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 00z NAM tugging up GOM moisture towards the end of the run. Just look at the coverage of relative humidity levels. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 NAM looks kind of warm no? Those relative humidity readings are sweet though. Gulf is wide open just need a nice track. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 NAM looks kind of warm no? Those relative humidity readings are sweet though. Gulf is wide open just need a nice track.Not really, it has temps near 30F by you...the difference between the 18z GFS & 00z NAM is the progression of the arctic air to the north. 18z GFS pushing it south faster which suppresses the storm. Let's see what the 00z GFS has in store. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 I think we are a little bit too early to start a thread on this. Last weeks thread for the "President's day and Fat Tuesday storm" was a total dud. Should have waited at least another 24 hours before starting this.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 0z GFS looks like it will be coming north of 18z. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 I was just going to say, gfs looks a tad north this run so far Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 Actually it's pretty significantly further north. Maybe 100 miles or so Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 Holy...about 10 mb stronger at HR 93. Down to 994 MB and dropping Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 Gfs looking pretty good for my area. This is a nice surprise 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 I think we are a little bit too early to start a thread on this. Last weeks thread for the "President's day and Fat Tuesday storm" was a total dud. Should have waited at least another 24 hours before starting this.... Speak for yourself in your own back yard. If you lived in the southern Plains/Midwest, you got a significant winter storm. It's pretty selfish to say that since this forum covers a huge amount of real estate in the central CONUS. Everybody has their choice to post on here. You don't need to come on here and tell someone that it is a bad idea to issue a new Thread on a storm system that has "real" potential and since we are only 3-4 days out. It also "cleans" up the February Discussion and keeps posts separate from the general discussions. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 Nice step in the right direction. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 D**n, 00z GFS has a Classic "Cutter" look to it...great surprise like you said Bud. Post the 00z GFS Ensembles when you can. Thanks. Still snowing in MI/IL/IN.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 Speak for yourself in your own back yard. If you lived in the southern Plains/Midwest, you got a significant winter storm. It's pretty selfish to say that since this forum covers a huge amount of real estate in the central CONUS. Everybody has their choice to post on here. You don't need to come on here and tell someone that it is a bad idea to issue a new Thread on a storm system that has "real" potential and since we are only 3-4 days out. It also "cleans" up the February Discussion and keeps posts separate from the general discussions.You're right Tom, after seeing the new GFS, we are heading in the right direction. I just don't like being missed by powerhouse winter storms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 Another "Spread The Wealth" system???? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 Just when I give up on the gfs it pulls me back in. Great hit for my area of central Nebraska on the 00z gfs for Saturday and Sunday. Tom thanks for starting the thread, I am sure there will be many changes all week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 You're right Tom, after seeing the new GFS, we are heading in the right direction. I just don't like being missed by powerhouse winter storms. I don't think anyone on here likes getting missed by winter storms. We are hitting our stride as we speak and Winter is about to deliver some very interesting storm systems over the next 2-3 weeks. Let's all try to enjoy tracking winter storms as much as we can before Spring arrives. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 GFS with a huge step in the right direction Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 Nice hit for Chicago. If it were to come north just a little more I'd feel a bit better. Let's see if any other models latch on to this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 From what I can tell, there is much better sampling of the northern piece. Should be some interesting runs as we move forward. 00z GFS full run....nails DTX...nice stripe of warning snows from CO to MI...BTW, GFS showing some nice LehS in NE IL which turns to pure LES as the storm departs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 00z GFS has some pretty cold temps with this storm. Low 20's with high winds should be pretty nice and fluffy powda blown around. High ratio snow fall for sure. Meantime, this storm pumps real warm temps on the East Coast. Near 50F in NYC and mid/upper 30's in Boston with heavy RAIN. That won't bode well on the roofs of homes/businesses. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim the weatherman Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 00z GFS has some pretty cold temps with this storm. Low 20's with high winds should be pretty nice and fluffy powda blown around. High ratio snow fall for sure. Meantime, this storm pumps real warm temps on the East Coast. Near 50F in NYC and mid/upper 30's in Boston with heavy RAIN. That won't bode well on the roofs of homes/businesses.the're is going to be widespread flooging in the boston area with this system with tempsmid to upper 30's showing up and 50's for new york city. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 UKIE HR 96 http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 GGEM also north Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott26 Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 Nice to be tracking a storm again with such good potential to produce for most of us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 The gem is well south of the gfs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 00z GGEM south of GFS, but certainly trending and snowier from previous runs and its a bit NW from the 12z run...wierd run as it leaves behind a piece of energy in the Rockies that produces a separate snow storm that hits the Plains alone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 Great runs tonight. Just this one and I'll be good. Would be the first warning type event of the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 EURO with a 1003 L just south of STL at 96 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 00z Euro looking better organized this run... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 00z Euro takes a very similar track as the GFS but weaker... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 EURO not quite the GFS but a bit better I guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 6z gfs shifted south. Easy come easy go Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 Yeah my guess, at least for Nebraska, is the horrible, cold high pressure will win out and this will stay south of us. Southwest Nebraska might do okay is this looks like a good upslope event for eastern Colorado and out onto the plains of NW KS and SW NE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted February 18, 2015 Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 Yeah Lezak is saying.dusting to four inches is his guy feeling. Hope he's wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 06z GFS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 Yeah Lezak is saying.dusting to four inches is his guy feeling. Hope he's wrong.I think Gary is being very conservative with his forecast and not buying into the GFS yet. This storm is showing a very good track for the KC area. Remember what he said for the SB storm and that it wouldn't phase and become what it did. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 18, 2015 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2015 00z Euro Ensembles showing more agreement on a "Cutter" solution from KS into the OV/Lower Lakes... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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