March 2015 PNW Discussion

[richard mann]

 

I hadn't said, you had.

 

— Just a comment more tangential.

[stuffradio]

I hadn't said, you had.

 

— Just a comment more tangential.

I see, you quoted my post when saying that though, so that would have suggested I said something related to your post.

 

I received 1.14 inches of rain as of 5:20 since noon yesterday. It didn't start raining until like 6 PM yesterday. It also confirms that I am indeed at over 9 inches of rain for March.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Incredibly nice day down this way. Sunny skies and temps in the mid 60s.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z gfs is the coolest run yet.

[Jesse]

18z gfs is the coolest run yet.

Sexy run.

 

The 12z Euro was nice too.

[Jesse]

Incredibly nice day down this way. Sunny skies and temps in the mid 60s.

We could see the Silverton Hills from the tulip farm. I was thinking that somewhere up there among the evergreens was your little patch of heaven.

[TT-SEA]

I would say the 12Z ECMWF was rather bland and warm compared to some other runs.   The trough stays offshore on that run.   Here is day 5 through 10.  

 

I think this would still be a slightly above normal pattern actually... with mild nights and occasional rain.   By June this probably becomes a below normal pattern.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!120!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015032912!!chart.gif

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!144!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015032912!!chart.gif

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!168!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015032912!!chart.gif

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!192!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015032912!!chart.gif

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!216!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015032912!!chart.gif

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015032912!!chart.gif

[TT-SEA]

From Cliff Mass... sounds perfect to me.

 

It does appear that the probabilities are strongly weighted towards another warm summer here in the Pacific Northwest.  I haven't discussed precipitation , but similar guidance does not suggest an usually wet or dry warm season.

What are the implications of the upcoming warm summer?  A longer hiking season for sure.  Increased chances of wildfires.  Higher summer humidity. A better beach season than normal. Another great tomato growing season.  Less chance of spring freezes in eastern Washington. And much more.  I enjoy a warmer summer even though it may not be politically correct to say it.

[Jesse]

18Z ensembles look great too.

[Jesse]

Beautiful day on the tulip farm. A little warm but very nice.

 

 

 

 

[stuffradio]

This one was interesting.

Interestingly, if one plots the departure from normal of the Seattle temperatures for the last year one finds that nearly every day has been above normal (see below), with an average departure from normal of about 2C (3.6F), which is roughly the value of the sea surface temperature warming off our coast.  Really amazing how consistently warmer than normal we have been.

[Phil]

12z ECMWF looks screwy to me. Holding back a ton of potential energy despite there being no signs of wave refraction..

[Deweydog]

From Cliff Mass... sounds perfect to me.

 

It does appear that the probabilities are strongly weighted towards another warm summer here in the Pacific Northwest.  I haven't discussed precipitation , but similar guidance does not suggest an usually wet or dry warm season.

 

What are the implications of the upcoming warm summer?  A longer hiking season for sure.  Increased chances of wildfires.  Higher summer humidity. A better beach season than normal. Another great tomato growing season.  Less chance of spring freezes in eastern Washington. And much more.  I enjoy a warmer summer even though it may not be politically correct to say it.

 

Translation:  I looked at the vivid, color-coded SSTA map.  

[TT-SEA]

Translation:  I looked at the vivid, color-coded SSTA map.  

 

 

Yep.  

 

And yet... I would bet a good chunk of money that it works out that way.    

[TT-SEA]

12z ECMWF looks screwy to me. Holding back a ton of potential energy despite there being no signs of wave refraction..

 

 

Good chance to pit the GFS and ECMWF against each other for this weekend.

 

New 00Z GFS has a deep trough along the West Coast while the ECMWF pulls energy offshore.    

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_156_500_vort_ht.gif

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!168!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015032912!!chart.gif

[Deweydog]

Yep.  

 

And yet... I would bet a good chunk of money that it works out that way.    

 

Unless it doesn't because the weather decides as much.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Beautiful day on the tulip farm. A little warm but very nice.

 

Tulip farm.jpg

 

Wooden Shoe may have a Woodburn address, but locals such as myself refer to it as being in the Monitor area. Of course Monitor's most famous native son is the one and only Mark Nelsen. One of the family members of the owners went to my church growing up so we always had our Easter sunrise service out there. Beautiful place. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sunday morning is potentially snowy for my location...

[TT-SEA]

Sunday morning is potentially snowy for my location...

 

Not seeing it.   The flow looks very weak though on the 00Z GFS so maybe if there is enough precip.

 

Side note... the 00Z GFS is very different than the 12Z GFS for next week.

 

Here is the 12Z run...

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_252_500_vort_ht.gif

 

And the 00Z run for the same time...

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_240_500_vort_ht.gif

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not seeing it.   The flow looks very weak though on the 00Z GFS so maybe if there is enough precip.

 

Side note... the 00Z GFS is very different than the 12Z GFS for next week.

 

Here is the 12Z run...

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_252_500_vort_ht.gif

 

And the 00Z run for the same time...

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_240_500_vort_ht.gif

 

Snowy meaning snow in the air. Precip and sub 528 thickness is snow for my location.

[TT-SEA]

Unless it doesn't because the weather decides as much.  

 

Want to take my bet?   I don't know why it works... but it does.   

 

Warm summer... more humid than normal.     Maybe some significant rain at times.    

 

Take it to the bank.   Or not... then lets make a wager.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Want to take my bet?   I don't know why it works... but it does.   

 

Warm summer... more humid than normal.     Maybe some significant rain at times.    

 

Take it to the bank.   Or not... then lets make a wager.  

 

Someday Jesse and I will revel in a summer that is a redux of 1983. The summer of 2011 was nice, sans September. 

[Jesse]

Someday Jesse and I will revel in a summer that is a redux of 1983. The summer of 2011 was nice, sans September.

I would like a 1954, but maybe I'm greedy.

[TT-SEA]

Someday Jesse and I will revel in a summer that is a redux of 1983. The summer of 2011 was nice, sans September. 

 

But then it will pass and the next one could be hot!   

 

Next summer is probably the best candidate for a cool, cloudy summer.   But you might not even be living here then.

[stuffradio]

Someday Jesse and I will revel in a summer that is a redux of 1983. The summer of 2011 was nice, sans September. 

I would like you to have come here and experience it and say 2011 was nice.

[stuffradio]

But then it will pass and the next one could be hot!   

 

Next summer is probably the best candidate for a cool, cloudy summer.   But you might not even be living here then.

I don't know about that, but Joe Bastardi said the cold SST in the Southern hemisphere is going to start pumping north after this coming year and obliterate all the warm SSTs we've been having in the North pacific... or he said something similar.

[TT-SEA]

I don't know about that, but Joe Bastardi said the cold SST in the Southern hemisphere is going to start pumping north after this coming year and obliterate all the warm SSTs we've been having in the North pacific... or he said something similar.

Luckily SSTAs don't matter to our weather!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

But then it will pass and the next one could be hot!   

 

Next summer is probably the best candidate for a cool, cloudy summer.   But you might not even be living here then.

 

I know. I hope I am. Murphy's law dictates I'll be living in Tulsa and it will be cool in the PNW with record heat in the southern plains.

[Jesse]

00Z is a great run through about hour 312.

[ShawniganLake]

0z gfs is crappy through hour 300, then things start looking better.

[TT-SEA]

00Z is a great run through about hour 312.

 

 

So hour 300 is still great then...

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_300_500_vort_ht.gif

[TT-SEA]

0z gfs is crappy through hour 300, then things start looking better.

 

 

Yeah.... the next 10 days are going to suck.   Particularly since its been pretty crappy since 3/13 already with the exception of a couple days.

[Jesse]

0z gfs is crappy through hour 300, then things start looking better.

I see what you did there.

 

Clever.

 

Do you generally get out and do things that don't involve obsessive yard maintenance on nice days?

[TT-SEA]

0z gfs is crappy through hour 300, then things start looking better.

 

 

Thursday looks like a good break right now...

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/pcp3.96.0000.gif

[TT-SEA]

Someone on here habitually drives east to sunshine when its raining and crappy on this side of the Cascades... and then calls people out who don't do that and would like it nice more often on this side.   Why cheer for crappy weather just so you can drive east or hike up to always escape it?   Why not just sit in the lovely rain and cold?    

 

The same person always talks of moving to a drier and sunnier climate as soon as possible.    But somehow a pattern with daily rain is the only way to ease stress.  

[TT-SEA]

Its rained on 15 out of the last 18 days at SEA.

 

Same at my location.

 

Might be due to get into a drier pattern in April.

[ShawniganLake]

I see what you did there.

 

Clever.

 

Do you generally get out and do things that don't involve obsessive yard maintenance on nice days?

I do lawn and garden maintenance for a living, so I generally take advantage of nice days this time of the year by working. We have a few landscaping projects that we want to do around our own house this spring/summer. Maybe find some time for a little fishing and golfing. Maybe a little camping too.

Sunny, warm weather is more pleasant for all these things. IMO.

[stuffradio]

According to my records, the first 11 days of March were rain free. After that, I have had 4 other days of no rain, but it's been basically day after day of rain. Half of March without rain is pretty good, but I would rather have it all broken in chunks in some ways.

[BLI snowman]

Its rained on 15 out of the last 18 days at SEA.

 

Same at my location.

 

Might be due to get into a drier pattern in April.

 

The only thing we're due for at this point is cold onshore flow. After 24+ months without it, that's what we will be getting.

[Jesse]

I like living here. Cold rain in April isn't my favorite. As far as bellyaching, common Jesse, you are likely one of the biggest offenders there. You make low 80s and Sunshine sound like you're being punished.

I deleted my post because I honestly hate arguments of opinion like this, because they are pointless and go nowhere and lead to sweeping, misinformed generalizations. But it looks like you saw it first.

 

Low 80s and sunshine is gorgeous in the summer, btw. That is average summer weather down here.