February 2014 in the PNW

[westcoastexpat]

Jim does.

 

Maybe because the ECMWF has been closer to reality... which has had the Seattle are getting screwed over for much of the winter.   

 

Reality sucks sometimes... should not kill the messenger though!

 

Any Seattleite expecting much--if any--snow this weekend is wish casting, unfortunately.

 

I do, however, think this could be big for Whatcom

[snow_wizard]

Wow!

 

Almost all of Western WA gets significant snowfall on this WRF run. I don't totally buy the cold air penetrating into SW WA like this run shows, but it gives me more confidence it will at least get this far south. Looks like places up north score early in the weekend and places south of Seattle more Sunday night. All in all better than the 0z.

[TT-SEA]

The WRF does bring a second wave on Sunday which comes in as snow for most everyone...

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/ww_snow72.72.0000.gif

[snow_wizard]

Any Seattleite expecting much--if any--snow this weekend is wish casting, unfortunately.

 

I do, however, think this could be big for Whatcom

Did you see the latest WRF? Apparently some on here are completely ignoring models now.

 

You will get your snow so let us be.

[Weather101]

Nice! Looks like this could be a Saturday -Sunday event. Not just a one and done

[HighlandExperience]

Wow!

 

Almost all of Western WA gets significant snowfall on this WRF run. I don't totally buy the cold air penetrating into SW WA like this run shows, but it gives me more confidence it will at least get this far south. Looks like places up north score early in the weekend and places south of Seattle more Sunday night. All in all better than the 0z.

 

WRF run looks nice for us Sunday.

 

Solid 5 inches plus up the I-5 corridor. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

The WRF does bring a second wave on Sunday which comes in as snow for most everyone...

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/ww_snow72.72.0000.gif

Seems like this really boils down to how the low tracks... I can guarantee many of us will be watching the satellite loops to see progression of things in real time. I know I will be starting tonight. Gonna be fun but my expectations for down here is low but I will welcome a surprise or two.

[snow_wizard]

The WRF brings a lot more Southerly flow even up to Bellingham.

 

Still says it would be snow but it would be awfully close and it has the bulk of the precip falling during the day Saturday which would make solid accumulations harder to come by.

 

 

Experience tells us these types of lows are more likely to get hung up and move South more slowly than modeled than the other way around.

Nothing has really changed from the 0z. The changeover to snow in the south still comes at about the same time. This run actually shows some snow in the Central Puget Sound area on Saturday also. Something the 0z didn't show. Is anyone really surprised Tim is pissing all over this?

[HighlandExperience]

Wow!

 

Almost all of Western WA gets significant snowfall on this WRF run. I don't totally buy the cold air penetrating into SW WA like this run shows, but it gives me more confidence it will at least get this far south. Looks like places up north score early in the weekend and places south of Seattle more Sunday night. All in all better than the 0z.

 

This is the best WRF run we have had for wide spread snow. 

[snow_wizard]

Seems like this really boils down to how the low tracks... I can guarantee many of us will be watching the satellite loops to see progression of things in real time. I know I will be starting tonight. Gonna be fun but my expectations for down here is low but I will welcome a surprise to two.

The fact this run brings the snow so far south of us is pretty encouraging. Still a chance our area could be a big winner depending on where things get hung up.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Any Seattleite expecting much--if any--snow this weekend is wish casting, unfortunately.

 

I do, however, think this could be big for Whatcom

I honestly don't think you know very much about the micro climate in our neck of the woods. There is a very good chance Seattle will see snow. You can never underestimate what cold dry Canadian air can do when it starts pouring in.

[GHweatherChris]

Nothing has really changed from the 0z. The changeover to snow in the south still comes at about the same time. This run actually shows some snow in the Central Puget Sound area on Saturday also. Something the 0z didn't show. Is anyone really surprised Tim is pissing all over this?

I know I would rather be here than wasting money in a tourist trap trying to brainwash my family into thinking we will come home to beautiful weather.

[TT-SEA]

Nothing has really changed from the 0z. The changeover to snow in the south still comes at about the same time. This run actually shows some snow in the Central Puget Sound area on Saturday also. Something the 0z didn't show. Is anyone really surprised Tim is pissing all over this?

 

 

The WRF is not reliable unless the ECMWF backs it up... particularly in this time range.     We will see what the 12Z ECMWF shows.    Maybe it will come around.

 

Cliff Mass will tell you over and over again that the ECMWF surface maps are the absolute gold standard.    If it comes around... then I say it will happen.

 

I am so sick of being crucified for being realistic and not acting like some giddy kid in a candy store.    I honestly don't care what happens this weekend.    I can look at it objectively with no emotion.    I just hope anything that falls will be long gone by Wednesday.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Almost looks like a reload later in the gfs run. Tim pointed this out yesterday and it even looks closer now.

[Guest Monty67]

The fact this run brings the snow so far south of us is pretty encouraging. Still a chance our area could be a big winner depending on where things get hung up.

The new wrf cut my snow totals in half from what it has been showing. Looking like only 6-8" now. I was surprised how far south the wrf is showing accumulating snow, seems kind of aggressive with pushing the cold south. Having said that, I am rooting for your area Jim, you want it more than anyone.

[Weather101]

The WRF is not reliable unless the ECMWF backs it up... particularly in this time range. We will see what the 12Z ECMWF shows. Maybe it will come around.

 

Cliff Mass will tell you over and over again that the ECMWF surface maps are the absolute gold standard. If it comes around... then I say it will happen.

 

I am so sick of being crucified for being realistic and not acting like some giddy kid in a candy store. I honestly don't care what happens this weekend. I can look at it objectively with no emotion. I just hope anything that falls will be long gone by Wednesday.

It's because you're not even in the area and you' hate snow lol that's why ppl are on you ! What's you're opinion for Vancouver?

[HighlandExperience]

The WRF is not reliable unless the ECMWF backs it up... particularly in this time range.     We will see what the 12Z ECMWF shows.    Maybe it will come around.

 

Cliff Mass will tell you over and over again that the ECMWF surface maps are the absolute gold standard.    If it comes around... then I say it will happen.

 

I am so sick of being crucified for being realistic and not acting like some giddy kid in a candy store.    I honestly don't care what happens this weekend.    I can look at it objectively with no emotion.    I just hope anything that falls will be long gone by Wednesday.  

 

In general you are right, but this has been a strange winter. And here is exactly what Cliff Mass had to say about our last event: 

 

And ALL the models were failing, including the state-of-the-art global European Center Model, the US. GFS, the US NAM, the UW WRF, the UW ensemble system, and the highly capable NOAA Rapid Refresh and HRRR models.

[TT-SEA]

In general you are right, but this has been a strange winter. And here is exactly what Cliff Mass had to say about our last event: 

 

And ALL the models were failing, including the state-of-the-art global European Center Model, the US. GFS, the US NAM, the UW WRF, the UW ensemble system, and the highly capable NOAA Rapid Refresh and HRRR models.

 

 

You could find fault with all the models... but the ECMWF was SO much better than the other models with the multiple events down south earlier this month.   The PDX NWS ended up just trusting the ECMWF.    The WRF was horrible on some runs.   Comically bad.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

You could find fault with all the models... but the ECMWF was SO much better than the other models with the multiple events down south earlier this month.   The PDX NWS ended up just trusting the ECMWF.    The WRF was horrible on some runs.   Comically bad.

Sometimes it's just a roll of the dice. I have seen the wrf nail the snow totals for hood canal.

[snow_wizard]

In general you are right, but this has been a strange winter. And here is exactly what Cliff Mass had to say about our last event: 

 

And ALL the models were failing, including the state-of-the-art global European Center Model, the US. GFS, the US NAM, the UW WRF, the UW ensemble system, and the highly capable NOAA Rapid Refresh and HRRR models.

I think a lot of the model problems stem from such a delicate balance with this type of event. One tiny little change can have huge implications for the observed weather. It could also be something to do with the fact the patterns this winter have been quite rare (in recent years) in a lot of respects and the models don't really know what to so with it.

[TT-SEA]

Sometimes it's just a roll of the dice. I have seen the wrf nail the snow totals for hood canal.

 

 

Yeah... and I am sure the ECMWF was in agreement.   The WRF is not worthless... but it needs ECMWF support or it usually ends up wrong.

 

Watch... the 12Z ECMWF will come out insanely snowy and then everyone will mock my comments.    It could end up in agreement with the WRF... but if it does not then go with the ECMWF.

 

That is all I am saying.

[snow_wizard]

Almost looks like a reload later in the gfs run. Tim pointed this out yesterday and it even looks closer now.

Huge potential with that. 850s drop to -16 over NE WA. Even a little tweak from what is shown on this run could bring some serious cold.

[westcoastexpat]

Did you see the latest WRF? Apparently some on here are completely ignoring models now.

 

You will get your snow so let us be.

 

Did you see the GEM or the Euro or the NAM? Apparently some on here are completely ignoring models right now.

[snow_wizard]

I know I would rather be here than wasting money in a tourist trap trying to brainwash my family into thinking we will come home to beautiful weather.

[westcoastexpat]

I honestly don't think you know very much about the micro climate in our neck of the woods. There is a very good chance Seattle will see snow. You can never underestimate what cold dry Canadian air can do when it starts pouring in.

 

Considering I'm from WA I think I'm well aware of the climate, just as much as you are.

 

I didn't say Seattle will not see snow. Those are other people. I'm simply saying I would be surprised to see anything significant for Seattleites out of this. And by significant I'm talking 3-4"+, something much more than what they've seen.

[TT-SEA]

I know I would rather be here than wasting money in a tourist trap trying to brainwash my family into thinking we will come home to beautiful weather.

 

We have not even mentioned the weather at home as a family.     Why bother... its been terrible at home.     

[TT-SEA]

Here is my son enjoying this tourist trap yesterday.   Probably better to just stay home in the cold rain and not give them any new experiences.   

 

http://s7.postimg.org/60c9916kr/haw1.jpg

[Weather101]

Did you see the GEM or the Euro or the NAM? Apparently some on here are completely ignoring models right now.

What are those models showing for Vancouver?

[GHweatherChris]

Here is my son enjoying this tourist trap yesterday.  

 

http://s7.postimg.org/60c9916kr/haw1.jpg

They got your money didn't they!!

[westcoastexpat]

What are those models showing for Vancouver?

 

Realistically, 3-4" at sea level and 4-7" for higher terrain.

 

This could surprise. I wouldn't be shocked to see widespread 6-8" totals.

[Weather101]

Yeah... and I am sure the ECMWF was in agreement. The WRF is not worthless... but it needs ECMWF support or it usually ends up wrong.

 

Watch... the 12Z ECMWF will come out insanely snowy and then everyone will mock my comments. It could end up in agreement with the WRF... but if it does not then go with the ECMWF.

 

That is all I am saying.

Then that means your model was the last to see it and the WRF would deserve big props if it holds if grounds

[Weather101]

Realistically, 3-4" at sea level and 4-7" for higher terrain.

 

This could surprise. I wouldn't be shocked to see widespread 6-8" totals.

Thanks !!

[TT-SEA]

They got your money didn't they!!

 

We ended up hiking down to that beach below... quite a trip.      Family adventure!

[westcoastexpat]

Thanks !!

 

The GFS is not so good for Vancouver. It keeps most of the totals further south, which is highly unrealistic given the more northerly totals on all the other models. Don't be discouraged by the Seattleites who are highlighting the one model that gives them substance.

[Weather101]

We ended up hiking down to that beach below... quite a trip. Family adventure!

Why do you care what happends here if you're not even here?

[TT-SEA]

Then that means your model was the last to see it and the WRF would deserve big props if it holds if grounds

 

 

How is the ECMWF my model??    

 

Its recognized worldwide as the best weather model available and has the stats to prove it... thankfully the Europeans spend more money on weather prediction.   

[westcoastexpat]

We ended up hiking down to that beach below... quite a trip.      Family adventure!

 

I'm glad you're enjoying your holiday! Which island are you on? 

[TT-SEA]

Why do you care what happends here if you're not even here?

 

 

I don't care.    Still like analyzing the situation in our down time.     Not caring allows you to look at it more objectively.     

 

All this discussion... and the 12Z ECMWF is going to come out very snowy.    I can feel it.

[Weather101]

Everything should switch over to rain on Sunday afternoon as another round of wet weather comes our way. It looks like Monday could be a bit soggy -- but drier conditions round out the middle of next week.

 

How can Komo say I'll switch over for you guys Sunday afternoon when NWS says for Seattle Sunday too Sunday is the best chance for legit snow? It could be just rain but it seems komo4 everyone hates snow there

[TT-SEA]

I'm glad you're enjoying your holiday! Which island are you on? 

 

Big Island.