February 2014 in the PNW

[GHweatherChris]

I don't care what several people have said. Look at the models yourself. You can go back and view past runs, too. People don't seem to talk about the Canadian much in here, that doesn't mean it hasn't been consistent. It is clear the the Euro has trended toward the GEM. It's not ambiguous: it is what it is. The GFS is on its own. 

Out of all three, the GFS is the only one not to waver at all since it started showing up in the models, and the GFS was the first to pick up on it.

[westcoastexpat]

Well one thing is for sure. All this nail biting bickering and cheering wont make a difference.

 

Absolutely. I don't really get why GHweatherChris is so aggressive in response to anything I post. It just clogs up this forum with junk.

[westcoastexpat]

Out of all three, the GFS is the only one not to waver at all since it started showing up in the models, and the GFS was the first to pick up on it.

 

GEM hasn't wavered, dude.

 

Anyway, this is turning into a cyclic argument. I've realized that I can't convince you of the facts, it's something you'll have to look at yourself. I just advise you to look at models yourself rather than banking purely on what you've read in this forum. Please take it to PM with me if you wish to discuss this further. Nobody wants to read this back and forth. I'm bored of it myself. I appreciate your...spirit.

[GHweatherChris]

Absolutely. I don't really get why GHweatherChris is so aggressive in response to anything I post. It just clogs up this forum with junk.

And your KM posts a bit ago don't?

 

Nothing I dislike more than a hypocrite.

[GHweatherChris]

GEM hasn't wavered, dude.

 

Anyway, this is turning into a cyclic argument. I've realized that I can't convince you of the facts, it's something you'll have to look at yourself. I just advise you to look at models yourself rather than banking purely on what you've read in this forum. Please take it to PM with me if you wish to discuss this further. Nobody wants to read this back and forth. I'm bored of it myself. I appreciate your...spirit.

You sir, are a piece of work.

 

The GFS showed this event before the other two, that is a fact.

 

And agreed, I would rather talk to my cat.

[westcoastexpat]

And your KM posts a bit ago don't?

 

Nothing I dislike more than a hypocrite.

 

They were light hearted!

[HighlandExperience]

You sir, are a piece of work.

 

The GFS showed this event before the other two, that is a fact.

 

And agreed, I would rather talk to my cat.

 

Yup gotta give the GFS some props. It saw this event long before some of the other models. Just saying.. 

[BLI snowman]

Dewpoint already at 26 at BLI.

 

I'm going to be honest, this looks pretty awesome for us in Whatcom County.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Dewpoint already at 26 at BLI.

 

I'm going to be honest, this looks pretty awesome for us in Whatcom County.

I agree.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

One thing is for sure, I'd sure hate to be the NWS right now. Most places (especially Central Sound) could see anything from plain ol rain to 5 inches of snow. Makes it kind of hard to notify the public when even more experienced forecasters can't figure it out.

 

Puts them in a hard spot. Go for the gusto, risk getting busted big time. Go for too little, people will say there wasn't enough warning.

This is the hardest forecast for snow we have had in a long time. And they know it. I remember in 1996 they said they would just have to see where the snow line settled and make the forecast as the day goes along. This could go that way.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

These recent patterns have been unusually complex; not sure any model had a handle on much of anything this winter.

[westcoastexpat]

These recent patterns have been unusually complex; not sure any model had a handle on much of anything this winter.

 The Canadian.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Interesting that at hr 84 on the 18z nam is shows another possible reload close to us again.

[Guest Monty67]

Dewpoint already at 26 at BLI.

 

I'm going to be honest, this looks pretty awesome for us in Whatcom County.

Abbotsford down to 26 as well. Nanaimo a fairly impressive 22.5

[Snowman5678]

Cliff mass wrote an awesome post about the model uncertainty during the February 2011 snow...some of what he said can be applied to this situation. http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2011/02/how-good-or-bad-was-snow-forecast.html

[luminen]

Finally sunny here. It's been a dreary month overall.

[χιόνι (chióni)]

Cliff mass wrote an awesome post about the model uncertainty during the February 2011 snow...some of what he said can be applied to this situation. http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2011/02/how-good-or-bad-was-snow-forecast.html

Notice the rain/snow shadow over the Central Sound.  February 2011 sucked for B.I.

[Phil]

You fool. Don't you know who I am?? I make more money than any mets in the entire region! People FLOCK to my website! Excuse me while I go masturbate to my photo and my weather forecasts.

This is only funny because it's true.

[Brennan]

No posts in an hour... Is this site down or something??? 25 going on 15 today

[seattleweatherguy]

so the models flop or show something historic because no one has said anything for a long while.

[The Swamp]

Boo!

[GHweatherChris]

so the models flop or show something historic because no one has said anything for a long while.

No, the all important GEM doesn't run again until tonight.

[Jesse]

No, the all important GEM doesn't run again until tonight.

Yeah, getting a little tired of all the bossy, know-it-all posts from everybody's favorite scholarly met today.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

18z looks on track. Amazing steady runs from the gfs.

[GHweatherChris]

18z looks on track. Amazing steady runs from the gfs.

Don't trust it, its wrong.

[seattleweatherguy]

• Rain. Low around 35. Calm wind becoming southeast 5 to 7 mph in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
• SundayRain likely before 10am, then snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 42. East northeast wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.
• Sunday NightSnow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
• MondayA 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42.

[seattleweatherguy]

Timing says Sunday versus Sat hmmm. for NWS

[westcoastexpat]

No, the all important GEM doesn't run again until tonight.

 

 

Yeah, getting a little tired of all the bossy, know-it-all posts from everybody's favorite scholarly met today.

 

 

Don't trust it, its wrong.

 

Oh c'mon guys. If you have an issue with my "bossy" and "all knowing" demeanour then please address it in PM and I will do my best to remedy it. This is a weather forum where we discuss weather; as with anything, there will be disagreeing but if we can't have a mature back and forth, raising fair questions without degrading into insultingly passive aggressive remarks, then the system falls apart. I've even stated that I am barely 60% confident in my own forecast, so even that should assure you that I do not feel all knowing by any stretch--especially in such a borderline situation.

[Parksvillewx]

I guess EC doesn't think this is going to amount to much here. They just ended the special weather statement and have "Rain mixed with snow or snow over higher terrain up to 4cm" in the forecast for tonight and tomorrow.

[richard mann]

-

Oh c'mon guys. If you have an issue with my "bossy" and "all knowing" demeanour then please address it in PM and I will do my best to remedy it. This is a weather forum where we discuss weather; as with anything, there will be disagreeing but if we can't have a mature back and forth, raising fair questions without degrading into insultingly passive aggressive remarks, then the system falls apart. I've even stated that I am barely 60% confident in my own forecast, so even that sure assure you that I do not feel all knowing by any stretch--especially in such a borderline situation.

 
.. I'll side with deference and form where regarding discussion, of any subject more academic. 
 
( i.e. "good luck". [with that.] )

[MossMan]

Seeing as neither camp of models (cold/warm, rain/snow) has jumped to the other side considerably as we all hoped, I'll be interested to see which suite of models the NWS decides to go with this afternoon. Which ones they might give more credence to.

The everlasting, defiant GFS or the climo, equally defiant ECMWF? Blend of the two, most likely.

Looks like they are going with the Euro per the latest discussion.

[Skagit Weather]

I am confused with what the NWS is doing, but maybe they are really going conservative. They actually lowered the snow forecasts up here and in Bellingham down to an inch or two. It seems like I should be in a relatively good position for this event, but I guess I will just have to see what falls.

[westcoastexpat]

I guess EC doesn't think this is going to amount to much here. They just ended the special weather statement and have "Rain mixed with snow or snow over higher terrain up to 4cm" in the forecast for tonight and tomorrow.

 

EC for Vancouver is notoriously conservative with these types of events. I'm sure the snowfall warning will be issued after the warning criteria snow has already fallen.

[seattleweatherguy]

Looks like they are going with the Euro per the latest discussion.

seattle weather man hate admittting it will snow.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Euro is the gold standard.

[bainbridgekid]

41 here and the DP is already down to 22. 

 

850mb temps currently -7 and 925mb temps -2.

 

Love it.

[Canadian guy]

I guess EC doesn't think this is going to amount to much here. They just ended the special weather statement and have "Rain mixed with snow or snow over higher terrain up to 4cm" in the forecast for tonight and tomorrow.

 

I think they are in the process of updating their forecast....looks like snowfall warnings are being issued on the island or at least for the Victoria area.

[MossMan]

I am confused with what the NWS is doing, but maybe they are really going conservative. They actually lowered the snow forecasts up here and in Bellingham down to an inch or two. It seems like I should be in a relatively good position for this event, but I guess I will just have to see what falls.

Yeah I was hoping for a little more detail with their afternoon discussion. Sounds like they want to follow the Euro so there will not be as much drama. They are going extremely conservative which is fine with me! Seems like whenever they do that, someone in Western Wa will get buried! That discussion seems eerily familiar to what they had posted on that Friday in Nov 2006 when I got hammered with 1.5FT of snowfall on that Sunday into Monday. Maybe history will repeat itself!

[Weather101]

EC for Vancouver is notoriously conservative with these types of events. I'm sure the snowfall warning will be issued after the warning criteria snow has already fallen.

Bingo

[HighlandExperience]

NWS discussion today is boring.