February 2014 in the PNW

[MossMan]

NWS discussion today is boring.

We need the Portland guys to take over writing the discussions for the next 3 days!

[Weather101]

NWS discussion today is boring.

Same with EC no special statement anymore

[brody]

My money is on this being an " as it happens " event

 

If I wake to snow then cool, and if I dont I'm not gonna go running for the knife cabinet either

[GHweatherChris]

My money is on this being an " as it happens " event

Thats a pretty gutsy call Brody, I hope your guess doesn't bust.

[bainbridgekid]

The Ensembles are not very useful at such a short range, but there is still enormous spread for this weekend and early next week.

 

Certainly goes to show how much uncertainty there still is though.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

[westcoastexpat]

The Ensembles are not very useful at such a short range, but there is still enormous spread for this weekend and early next week.

 

Certainly goes to show how much uncertainty there still is though.

 

 

Interesting to note that the operational is cooler and wetter than 75% of the ensemble members. Will be tough for areas already very borderline (SEA)

[brody]

Thats a pretty gutsy call Brody, I hope your guess doesn't bust.

Hey, I could have drawn up a map with yellow arrows indicating amounts and various colors for locales around the region but chose not to

[Jesse]

Interesting to note that the operational is cooler and wetter than 75% of the ensemble members. Will be tough for areas already very borderline (SEA)

Are you sure you're reading the chart right?

[GHweatherChris]

Hey, I could have drawn up a map with yellow arrows indicating amounts and various colors for locales around the region but chose not to

We can never have to many of those.

[Parksvillewx]

EC for Vancouver is notoriously conservative with these types of events. I'm sure the snowfall warning will be issued after the warning criteria snow has already fallen.

 

I was going to say, I can remember several times where the forecast has been similar to now and it snowing 4"+ then they put a snowfall warning up. 

[GHweatherChris]

Windshield splat testing will be 100% in play starting tomorrow, and that is a fact.

[Bryant]

Yeah I was hoping for a little more detail with their afternoon discussion. Sounds like they want to follow the Euro so there will not be as much drama. They are going extremely conservative which is fine with me! Seems like whenever they do that, someone in Western Wa will get buried! That discussion seems eerily familiar to what they had posted on that Friday in Nov 2006 when I got hammered with 1.5FT of snowfall on that Sunday into Monday. Maybe history will repeat itself!

 

If they're going off of the Euro, they need to increase their snow amounts for Whatcom County....

 

http://i59.tinypic.com/x6ewjn.png

[Bryant]

Not sure if these were posted... but the Canadian is much better for areas to the south. Would be a nice win-win scenario if we all scored. Whatcom County is in the 8-12" range here. GFS has been the driest of all the models, but still shows 3-5 inches up this way. Considering the driest solution would double or triple our totals, along with other models showing up to a foot, I'm starting to feel pretty good about the potential. 

 

http://i58.tinypic.com/2vtpa9w.png

[GHweatherChris]

Not sure if these were posted... but the Canadian is much better for areas to the south. Would be a nice win-win scenario if we all scored. Whatcom County is in the 8-12" range here. GFS has been the driest of all the models, but still shows 3-5 inches up this way. Considering the driest solution would double or triple our totals, along with other models showing up to a foot, I'm starting to feel pretty good about the potential. 

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/2014022112/seattle/cmc_snow_acc_seattle_19.png

Map is not showing up.

 

What does the Canadian show for southern areas?

[brody]

And Jeff Renner again is being a ****** showing nothing to a trace for king county ALL weekend.

[Bryant]

Map is not showing up.

 

What does the Canadian show for southern areas?

Hmm... I'll try to fix it

 

Edit: Should be fixed

[seattleweatherguy]

And Jeff Renner again is being a ****** showing nothing to a trace for king county ALL weekend.

they are scared. period. 

[GHweatherChris]

And Jeff Renner again is being a ****** showing nothing to a trace for king county ALL weekend.

Well, according to the NWS, if I end up seeing just one flake hit my windshield then their forecast is a bust.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

And Jeff Renner again is being a ****** showing nothing to a trace for king county ALL weekend.

I can't stand that *****.

[Phil]

The GFS ensemble members have a lower resolution than the operational. Short term I'd just go with the operational. Wait, its the GFS...its not reliable anyway.

The GFS's higher resolution should lead to a warmer 850mb/sfc given it'll handle the terrain better.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This pattern deserves at least some serious attention from the tv mets. There doing the public a disservice by not saying the possible other outcome. Snow.

[Bham_Guy]

Hmm... I'll try to fix it

 

Edit: Should be fixed

 

Looks good. It's nice to see the Euro increase snow totals for our area each run over the past couple of days.

[brody]

This pattern deserves at least some serious attention from the tv mets. There doing the public a disservice by not saying the possible other outcome. Snow.

And risk ratings?

 

Lmao

[brody]

Sam Argier  KIRO 7 is saying tr. to 2" for central sound on Sunday only 

[GHweatherChris]

The GFS's higher resolution should lead to a warmer 850mb/sfc given it'll handle the terrain better.

?

 

Even though the OP is the coldest besides a couple members?

 

Two weeks ago when i got 3.5 inches of snow, it was obviously colder at the surface here than progged.

[GHweatherChris]

Sam Argier  KIRO 7 is saying tr. to 2" for central sound on Sunday only 

Wow, kinda bullish on his part to go against his counterparts.

 

That D-bag Walter Kelly on Fox will probably predict Armageddon, he is all about hype sometimes. 

[epiceast]

And risk ratings?

 

Lmao

Wouldn't more people be watching the channel that says snow?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Wow, kinda bullish on his part to go against his counterparts.

 

That D-bag Walter Kelly on Fox will probably predict Armageddon, he is all about hype sometimes. 

He has the balls to say there is a chance for widespread snow. I like that.

[GHweatherChris]

Based on SPC sounding currently for Hoquiam, 850's are -3 and 925 is -2 right now.

 

I think some rain/snow mix tomorrow here is in order if there is precip.

[brody]

Wow, kinda bullish on his part to go against his counterparts.

 

That D-bag Walter Kelly on Fox will probably predict Armageddon, he is all about hype sometimes. 

Dont get me started on Walter Kelly and that fill in weather " girl " Parella I think is her name

 

It is a FOX affiliate so I would expect nothing less

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

OMG jeff renner is on a acid trip.

[GHweatherChris]

He has the balls to say there is a chance for widespread snow. I like that.

He must not be looking at anything but the GFS, tsk tsk he should know better.

[GHweatherChris]

Dont get me started on Walter Kelly and that fill in weather " girl " Parella I think is her name

 

It is a FOX affiliate so I would expect nothing less

I watch him for the entertainment value.

 

I remember one time there was some light rain moving into Seattle Metro in the morning and he made it sound like flooding rain on I5 was gonna cause major problems.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Based on SPC sounding currently for Hoquiam, 850's are -3 and 925 is -2 right now.

 

I think some rain/snow mix tomorrow here is in order if there is precip.

If this air mass coming in was replacing a mild one the chance would be much less imo. There are mixed showers out there now.

[brody]

OMG jeff renner is on a acid trip.

Laced with PCP 

[GHweatherChris]

If this air mass coming in was replacing a mild one the chance would be much less imo. There are mixed showers out there now.

True.  But the air mass will be gradually cooling as we go along through Monday morning at least.  Tiny warmups along the way of course.

[Skagit Weather]

My question is why the NWS doesn't issue at least an advisory for snow in the north sound. There is not one one model I have seen that gives Bellingham less than 3-6" of snow which seems like it would be at least advisory level.

[brody]

My question is why the NWS doesn't issue at least an advisory for snow in the north sound. There is not one one model I have seen that gives Bellingham less than 3-6" of snow which seems like it would be at least advisory level.

2-4" is adv. criteria if im not mistaken 

[HighlandExperience]

This from Cliff Mass, he just issued a new blog post. Thought it was fairly balanced: 

 

We will be watching the models and observations over the weekend...and hopefully the forecast will become more definitive in time.  My gut feeling is that Sunday night/Monday morning will whiten up the Seattle area...but we will see.

[GHweatherChris]

2-4" is adv. criteria if im not mistaken 

Winter Storm Watch is need up there at least.