February 2014 in the PNW

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Something is wrong with the 48 hour snowfall map. All the snow accumulated in the north isn't showing up at 48 hours.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014022200/images_d2/wa_snow24.48.0000.gif

thats the 24 hrs map kid.

[bainbridgekid]

Something is wrong with the 48 hour snowfall map. All the snow accumulated in the north isn't showing up at 48 hours.

 

 

That's the 24 hour snowfall map (hour 24-48.)

 

Most of the Whatcom/BC snow falls before hour 24 on the WRF.

[westcoastexpat]

That's the 24 hour snowfall map (hour 24-48.)

 

Most of the Whatcom/BC snow falls before hour 24 on the WRF.

 

I just realized that it's not cumulative snowfall. Thanks!

[westcoastexpat]

One thing for sure...the cold air doesn't make it nearly as far south on the 0Z WRF compared to this morning's 12Z run.  Not a good trend.

 

Aside from the highlands around Issaquah, mild temps and mixing precip types is going to result in nada for Seattle. This is going to be a primed event for Arlington north.

 

GFS has stepped toward the GEM once again this winter.

[Snowman5678]

I'm fairly pretty confident at an elevation of 500ft. in Issaquah.

 

Truth be told...at hour 45...the WRF is showing snow in the central sound.

Ya i think i will see at least a dusting at 550ft NE of Redmond.

[AnthonyC]

The WRF is showing a solid 2 - 6 inches of snow from Tacoma to Mt. Vernon Sunday afternoon/evening.

[Bham_Guy]

Pretty dry run for Whatcom County through HR66.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Aside from the highlands around Issaquah, mild temps and mixing precip types is going to result in nada for Seattle. This is going to be a primed event for Arlington north.

 

GFS has stepped toward the GEM once again this winter.

So you dont think it will snow south of Arlington?

[westcoastexpat]

The WRF is showing a solid 2 - 6 inches of snow from Tacoma to Mt. Vernon Sunday afternoon/evening.

 

A bit bizarre. WRT showing offshore winds from the east running across the south sound colliding with northerly winds off the Olympics causing lifting from Tacoma through to Olympia. Very delicate set up. Doesn't seem to account for the rain shadow that would result with that northerly flow. A bit bullish IMO. If the winds don't align that way, then they would get nothing.

[Brennan]

You know how these events go up here in Whatcom County with the models. 1-3" forecasts, 6-12" totals. Happens every time.

[BLI snowman]

Pretty dry run for Whatcom County through HR66.

 

You mean the WRF? Operational looks juicy.

 

WRF has been awful this year and has a bad southern bias.

[seattleweatherguy]

You should see some snow at that elevation! 2-3" wet snow possible

So nice! Where is the cut off line in terms of elevation?

[westcoastexpat]

You know how these events go up here in Whatcom County with the models. 1-3" forecasts, 6-12" totals. Happens every time.

 

GFS is out to lunch with a menacing outflow eating up all the moisture. It's overdoing the outflow, resulting in snow further south. However, given that the GFS has already taken a large step toward the GEM, expect Sunday amounts to trend north on the GFS. GEM has been unwavering.

[westcoastexpat]

You mean the WRF? Operational looks juicy.

 

WRF has been awful this year and has a bad southern bias.

 

The south bias is clear here. The snow line that sets up between Tacoma to Olympia as my friend Anthony has mentioned, in my opinion, is overdone and a bit strange.

 

However, it has trended north now which goes to show that it's beginning to buckle.

[westcoastexpat]

So you dont think it will snow south of Arlington?

 

Not significantly (2-3" or less)

[Jesse]

The south bias is clear here. The snow line that sets up between Tacoma to Mt. Olympia as my friend Anthony has mentioned, in my opinion, is overdone and a bit strange.

 

However, it has trended north now which goes to show that it's beginning to buckle.

Mt. Olympia?

[BLI snowman]

The south bias is clear here. The snow line that sets up between Tacoma to Mt. Olympia as my friend Anthony has mentioned, in my opinion, is overdone and a bit strange.

 

However, it has trended north now which goes to show that it's beginning to buckle.

 

Mt. Olympus

[westcoastexpat]

Mt. Olympia?

 

 

Mt. Olympus

 

Sorry, I wrote Mt. Vernon but then changed it to Olympia (which I meant to say) and forgot to take the Mt. out

[seattleweatherguy]

honestly I could do weather but my math sucks.

[Jesse]

Mt. Olympus

Do u think they'll get any sno with this pattern?

[East Dubzz]

honestly I could do weather but my math sucks.

I feel ya there.

[BLI snowman]

Do u think they'll get any sno with this pattern?

 

I hope not. They suck.

[epiceast]

GEM has no improvement.

[westcoastexpat]

GEM has no improvement.

 

Could you please elaborate?

[epiceast]

Could you please elaborate?

Still looks like rain for Seattle.

[Jesse]

I hope not. They suck.

Do u think I will?

[seattleweatherguy]

Still looks like rain for Seattle.

bummer hopefully bothell on that model can get something

[HighlandExperience]

that be funny if the GFS was right. (crossing fingers). 

[HighlandExperience]

Maybe this will cheer us up a little.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/ww_snow48.60.0000.gif

[Bryant]

GEM has no improvement.

 

I'm definitely a fan...

 

http://i57.tinypic.com/avg1zo.png

[brody]

Maybe this will cheer us up a little.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/ww_snow48.60.0000.gif

That's a good laugh, ty 

[pscz1140]

Amazing day/night skiing at Alpental.

 

Passing through North Bend now. Snowing hard in the East side of town.....light rain below Exit 32.

[HighlandExperience]

I'm definitely a fan...

 

 

 

A minor improvement would make a huge difference for king county with that map. 

[seattleweatherguy]

I'm definitely a fan...

 

http://i57.tinypic.com/avg1zo.png

 

A minor improvement would make a huge difference for king county with that map. 

BOthell looks like 1 inch unless im more towards that blue on that map

[brody]

BOthell looks like 1 inch unless im more towards that blue on that map

You would actually be 2" on that map 

[seattleweatherguy]

You would actually be 2" on that map 

Really well I have a hard time reading supposely where my city area is. I am bad a math and maps!

[brody]

Really well I have a hard time reading supposely where my city area is. I am bad a math and maps!

Yes Really

[brody]

Marked difference between the 12km and 4km WRF snow totals

[westcoastexpat]

Maybe this will cheer us up a little.

 

 

Quite a difference 24 hours makes:

 

 

GFS really buckled north toward the GEM solution. GFS is way overdoing the outflow 

[Weather101]

Quite a difference 24 hours makes:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014022100/images_d2/wa_snow48.84.0000.gif

 

GFS really buckled north toward the GEM solution. GFS is way overdoing the outflow

Sorry for asking again but any changes for tmrw and Sunday for Vancouver BC ?