February 2014 in the PNW

[MossMan]

12Z GEM backed off a tad on snowfall and the bullseye shifted a bit south:

 

Vancouver: 8-10"

Bellingham: 10-12"

Arlington: 12-14"

Everett: 3-5"

North Seattle: 2"

South Seattle: 0.5"

WOW! Go Canadian!

 

Snowing the hardest all morning now! Wish we could actually post pics here

[Skagit Weather]

Strongly disagree.   The 4km is much better at showing detail... the 12km version is low resolution.

Yes, but sometimes it has terrain/temperature problems. The 4km shows precipitation relatively constant over the entire area, but the water has snow over it and the land does not. I can't imagine places west of me like Anacortes getting 4" of snow while there is none here. That would be almost unprecedented. Also the models have been shifting so much I thing the 12km gives a better general idea of what places might get snow and how much.

[Skagit Weather]

12Z GEM backed off a tad on snowfall and the bullseye shifted a bit south:

 

Vancouver: 8-10"

Bellingham: 10-12"

Arlington: 12-14"

Everett: 3-5"

North Seattle: 2"

South Seattle: 0.5"

Do you have any images?

[Parksvillewx]

I was really hoping that snowfall intensity would be better here.  It's basically been a light flurry all morning  Slowly accumulating on grassy/wood surfaces.  Maybe 1"..maybe

[Skagit Weather]

The latest NWS discussion is pretty depressing to read for most places. It looks like they have taken the WRF at face value and based much of their forecast on that.

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=SEW&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

[TT-SEA]

Yes, but sometimes it has terrain/temperature problems. The 4km shows precipitation relatively constant over the entire area, but the water has snow over it and the land does not. I can't imagine places west of me like Anacortes getting 4" of snow while there is none here. That would be almost unprecedented. Also the models have been shifting so much I thing the 12km gives a better general idea of what places might get snow and how much.

 

 

4km is almost always better than the lower resolution 12km.

 

The reason for the snow farther west could be more direct access to outflow .

[Weather101]

12Z GEM backed off a tad on snowfall and the bullseye shifted a bit south:

 

Vancouver: 8-10"

Bellingham: 10-12"

Arlington: 12-14"

Everett: 3-5"

North Seattle: 2"

South Seattle: 0.5"

8-10" you think?

Is tmrw in Vancouver looking ok?

[Bryant]

Total snow from 4 p.m. today through Monday afternoon:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/ww_snow48.60.0000.gif

 

 

Probably still overstated though... remember the 00Z run will probably also back off again since that is whats been happening lately.

 

For reference... here is the same period from the 00Z run last night:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014022200/images_d3/ww_snow48.72.0000.gif

Doesn't surprise me at all that you praise the Euro surface maps and claim they're the most accurate, but then post the WRF when it shows most people getting screwed. Typical Tim. I swear you live to disappoint, which in return, brings you happiness.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

12Z GEM backed off a tad on snowfall and the bullseye shifted a bit south:

 

Vancouver: 8-10"

Bellingham: 10-12"

Arlington: 12-14"

Everett: 3-5"

North Seattle: 2"

South Seattle: 0.5"

 

Trending to the GFS.

[bainbridgekid]

My dad just called to report wet snow falling on Bainbridge at about 300 feet elevation.

 

32 here with continued light snow but it's too light to really accumulate at all. Still just a trace on cars and grass.

[seattleweatherguy]

Seeimg some snow here in bothell, more of a widtry mix or snow/rain

[MossMan]

Doesn't surprise me at all that you praise the Euro surface maps and claim they're the most accurate, but then post the WRF when it shows most people getting screwed. Typical Tim. I swear you live to disappoint, which in return, brings you happiness.

Yep the one downfall of Tim. Notice he rarely posts images when they are looking great for puget sound.

[seattleweatherguy]

not sticking

[westcoastexpat]

Trending to the GFS.

 

The GEM has not trended toward the GFS.

[westcoastexpat]

8-10" you think?

Is tmrw in Vancouver looking ok?

 

I don't know. It's so borderline with this spread. 

 

The GFS is clearly out to lunch. It shows < 3-4" for everybody. Most people see nothing.

 

The GEM shifts the sound bullseye between Arlington & Bellingham. Amounts are reduced by a few inches from the previous run.

 

I don't have access to the Euro maps at the moment, should be out soon though.

[westcoastexpat]

GFS is overdoing temperatures for the north sound if you ask me. With snowfall on the ground and the lack of onshore flow, it's going to be difficult to raise temperatures. 

[TT-SEA]

Doesn't surprise me at all that you praise the Euro surface maps and claim they're the most accurate, but then post the WRF when it shows most people getting screwed. Typical Tim. I swear you live to disappoint, which in return, brings you happiness.

 

The point was that the WRF is coming around to the ECMWF.   

 

And I show snowy maps all the time.   In fact... I posted snowy WRF maps the last 2 days!   

 

I just post what the models show.   Good or bad.    

 

When I show good... everyone loves it.   When I show bad... then everyone kills the messenger.    Typical crap on here.   

[bainbridgekid]

12z Euro still gives BLI 1.2" of QPF in the next 48 hours and 8" of snow.

 

Holding steady and totally different from the GFS and NAM.

 

Pretty much snowless South of Everett though at face value.

[westcoastexpat]

8-10" you think?

Is tmrw in Vancouver looking ok?

 

I would be more concerned if you live near the water. Areas like South Delta, YVR/Richmond, and downtown will probably see less than Burnaby/New Westminster/Surrey.

 

Right now I would say, by Monday morning, 4-6" for areas near the water and 7-9" for higher terrain.

[seattleweatherguy]

snow lighly sttickig on grass

[BLI snowman]

My dad just called to report wet snow falling on Bainbridge at about 300 feet elevation.

 

32 here with continued light snow but it's too light to really accumulate at all. Still just a trace on cars and grass.

 

32 there? Probably more likely 33-34. I drove around town a bit earlier and it wasn't sticking anywhere beyond a slushy trace.

[Bryant]

As far as snow totals in Whatcom County, the Euro actually trended towards the GEM and increased the amounts...

 

 

http://i62.tinypic.com/2hmo83t.png

[catnip]

12Z GEM backed off a tad on snowfall and the bullseye shifted a bit south:

 

Vancouver: 8-10"

 

Not at this rate!

[catnip]

As far as snow totals in Whatcom County, the Euro actually trended towards the GEM and increased the amounts...

 

 

http://i62.tinypic.com/2hmo83t.png

Hmm, as nice as that looks for us, I am not sure I buy that.

[bainbridgekid]

32 there? Probably more likely 33-34. I drove around town a bit earlier and it wasn't sticking anywhere beyond a slushy trace.

The campus weather station is reading 32.2.

 

Does seem a bit hard to believe because the snow really isn't sticking at all. Could be that the high sun angle is warming the ground to just above freezing though and the light snow can't overcome that.

[Skagit Weather]

Precipitation intensity has decreased quite a bit and temperature up to 34F. I just measured and about 1" out there. I hope the Euro is just a little too far north with the heavy snow.

[westcoastexpat]

Not at this rate!

 

catnip, the main event is not today's system. Today should bring 2", overnight tonight 1-2", Sunday 3-4", Sunday night 1-2". Sunday is the juicier system, but also the most borderline in terms of temperatures.

[epiceast]

Trending to the GFS.

new GFS is out to lunch. It's trending to 00z GFS.

[Bryant]

The point was that the WRF is coming around to the ECMWF.   

 

And I show snowy maps all the time.   In fact... I posted snowy WRF maps the last 2 days!   

 

I just post what the models show.   Good or bad.    

 

When I show good... everyone loves it.   When I show bad... then everyone kills the messenger.    Typical crap on here.   

It's not the typical crap, it's just how you deliver it.

[MossMan]

Love it, eating breakfast and watching the snow fall. All is white outside making the interior of the house nice and bright. Still snowing moderately.

[westcoastexpat]

As far as snow totals in Whatcom County, the Euro actually trended towards the GEM and increased the amounts...

 

 

 

Wow. That is huge!

 

This is at least the third or fourth time that the Euro has caved on a big system this winter in favour of the GEM's trend last minute. I've seen it happen all winter with the eastern systems.

 

What does the Canadian output look like on WxBell?

[TT-SEA]

It's not the typical crap, it's just how you deliver it.

 

Whatever.    Silly sugar-coating required to make people feel better?    

 

It is what it is.    

[Weather101]

I would be more concerned if you live near the water. Areas like South Delta, YVR/Richmond, and downtown will probably see less than Burnaby/New Westminster/Surrey.

 

Right now I would say, by Monday morning, 4-6" for areas near the water and 7-9" for higher terrain.

I'm

Near the water but 4-6" I would be fine with, been lightly showing for 4 hours temp 0.5c nothing but a trace amounts on grass

[TT-SEA]

My guess is the reason the WRF shows so little snow over Bellingham tomorrow is because the outflow is too strong on that run. 

 

In this case... that will probably be a good thing since the moisture will likely win out but dewpoints will be lower thanks to some outflow.

[Bryant]

Wow. That is huge!

 

This is at least the third or fourth time that the Euro has caved on a big system this winter in favour of the GEM's trend last minute. I've seen it happen all winter with the eastern systems.

 

What does the Canadian output look like on WxBell?

 

It's persistent, I'll say that. Hard to think it's possible given the vastly different GFS, especially considering it's within a very small time frame. Euro and GEM give most of Whatcom County 8-10", while the GFS... well, sucks

 

http://i61.tinypic.com/xf6ctz.png

[Parksvillewx]

Wow. That is huge!

 

This is at least the third or fourth time that the Euro has caved on a big system this winter in favour of the GEM's trend last minute. I've seen it happen all winter with the eastern systems.

 

What does the Canadian output look like on WxBell?

 

 

Here's the RGEM..

 

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v204/batman7150/rgemsnow.png

[westcoastexpat]

My guess is the reason the WRF shows so little snow over Bellingham tomorrow is because the outflow is too strong on that run. 

 

In this case... that will probably be a good thing since the moisture will likely win out but dewpoints will be lower thanks to some outflow.

 

This has been the issue with every GFS run: the outflow. It has a poor handle on it.

[seattleweatherguy]

i dont think snow can stick today.... maybe tommrow. I am heading up to everett today you think they will get sticking snow?

[Abbotsford_wx]

I just measured 1.1" up here. The temperature is already up to 33F, so it's going to be tough to get more accumulations; I doubt we see more than 2" total today. Environment Canada did a good job forecasting this even though they were a bit late to the party.

 

I'm still pretty skeptical of the ECMWF for tomorrow, but I don't buy the GFS either. I would maybe split the difference... some outflow but not enough to keep us too dry for snow.

[Bryant]

 

 

Here's the RGEM..

 

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v204/batman7150/rgemsnow.png

 

These links are you friend....

 

Canadian

http://models.weatherbell.com/cmc/ycmc_region.php

 

Euro

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/yecmwf_region.php

 

GFS

http://models.weatherbell.com/gfs/ygfs_region.php

 

Under "CONUS METRO N-Z" on the right side, chose Seattle. Then chose "Total Snowfall"