February 2014 in the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/12/gfs_namer_192_1000_500_thick.gif

[brody]

Did any of the models show it snowing around hood canal this morning?

Actually no

[westcoastexpat]

Did any of the models show it snowing around hood canal this morning?

 

Yup. GEM. Showed -SN into Silverdale

[MossMan]

Snow really coming down now, time to go out and play!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Did any of the models show it snowing around hood canal this morning?

 

I honestly haven't been tracking this close enough to say for certain. 

[snow maniac]

Getting some light snow.

the suns starting to come out and my temp just bumped up and turned my light snow to a mix. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Most temps in the Seattle area aren't even close to cold enough for accumulating snow. They will likely warm a bit through out the morning with the flow there still southerly.

[Brennan]

Pretty lame here thus far, still just a dusting. Cams show Lynden/Sumas with maybe close to an inch.

Were you expecting it to be anything more than lame during the day today? 

 

I don’t know what to think of the 12z...  BLI really gets the open palm to the face. And if we get a big blast and snow next weekend while I’m in NY i’m going to jump off the statue of liberty. 

[Brennan]

Snow really coming down now, time to go out and play!

Can you specify what “really coming down” is? Accumulation???

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Yup. GEM. Showed -SN into Silverdale

Impressive. Just west of Silverdale is a very good area for snow. Very close to the Olympics. At this point despite what the wrf shows I think the entire hood canal area from the hood canal bridge down to Shelton and east from a line from Shelton up through Belfair and the Bremerton airport area will see 2-6 inches by Monday morning.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Snowing here in Bonney Lake... 34 degrees

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Were you expecting it to be anything more than lame during the day today? 

 

I don’t know what to think of the 12z...  BLI really gets the open palm to the face. And if we get a big blast and snow next weekend while I’m in NY i’m going to jump off the statue of liberty. 

Next weekend looks even better than this weekend did.

[Snowman5678]

Most temps in the Seattle area aren't even close to cold enough for accumulating snow. They will likely warm a bit through out the morning with the flow there still southerly.

ya, light snow this morning but no accumulation...temp is slowly rising.

[BLI snowman]

Were you expecting it to be anything more than lame during the day today? 

 

I don’t know what to think of the 12z...  BLI really gets the open palm to the face. And if we get a big blast and snow next weekend while I’m in NY i’m going to jump off the statue of liberty. 

 

Definitely was going to be a close call, sometimes those work out in your favor and sometimes they don't.

 

Tomorrow still has a lot more potential of course.

 

And NYC will probably have snow still. They had about 15" on the ground all last week and they are getting more next week.

[brody]

Snowing here in Bonney Lake... 34 degrees

Happy for ya SwampThang 

[Brennan]

Definitely was going to be a close call, sometimes those work out in your favor and sometimes they don't.

 

Tomorrow still has a lot more potential of course.

 

And NYC will probably have snow still. They had about 15" on the ground all last week and they are getting more next week.

Anchorage had 36 inches of dust when I was there in December of 1996. I am still scarred. 

 

15” of leftover snow in NY is not going to entertain me if we are getting blasted over here. 

 

My Dad just sent me a text from my parents’ house out by Lake Whatcom. 

 

“It’s dumping bees bees here” ...  Not sure what he means. 

[Skagit Weather]

Here is a picture from my phone of the snow near my house. Sorry for the poor quality.

 

[brody]

 

“It’s dumping bees bees here” ...  Not sure what he means. 

hes your dad, its not supposed to make sense

 

Unless he meant the " Bees Knees "

[BLI snowman]

Anchorage had 36 inches of dust when I was there in December of 1996. I am still scarred. 

 

15” of leftover snow in NY is not going to entertain me if we are getting blasted over here. 

 

My Dad just sent me a text from my parents’ house out by Lake Whatcom. 

 

“It’s dumping bees bees here” ...  Not sure what he means. 

 

Definitely not going to be December 1996.

 

You're lucky you'll be in NYC. Climo way favors them anyways, that airmass will slide east and it'll probably be murderously cold back there.

[Jesse]

Models are starting really to back off on how much cold air makes it to the Gorge by early next week. Yesterday's 12Z GFS showed 850m temps down to -8c over The Dalles Monday into Tuesday, this morning's 12Z has them bottoming out at only -3c.

 

I was never really feeling this event anyway, just too much on the razor's edge for most people. Looks like temps around 50 or so for PDX the rest of the month. 40s out here. So much for a top cold February. Bring on spring!!

[Jesse]

I'm pretty bummed out about the forecast for a major El Nino next year, as well. Hearing talk of the strongest since the 1997-98 super Nino? That should do a doozy on global temps. Probably the warmest in hundreds of years.

 

But it's all just part of our gradual transition to global cooling by the 2020s, right?

[Brennan]

Definitely not going to be December 1996.

 

You're lucky you'll be in NYC. Climo way favors them anyways, that airmass will slide east and it'll probably be murderously cold back there.

Obviously it won’t be a 96... My point being, I don’t really care about snow in NY. If I wanted to see snow regardless of location, I’d go to Mt Baker where there is 120” of snow in the past 10 days. 

[MossMan]

We have about a half inch on the ground. Snow is now back to light and small flakes. Temp up to 33.4

[Brennan]

I'm pretty bummed out about the forecast for a major El Nino next year, as well. Hearing talk of the strongest since the 1997-98 super Nino? That should do a doozy on global temps. Probably the warmest in hundreds of years.

 

But it's all just part of our gradual transition to global cooling by the 2020s, right?

January 11th 1998. 

[MossMan]

Amazing how the mood here falls so rapidly with one model run that is not so favorable. I still think many of us will still see significant snowfall this weekend. This morning was just a taste!

[BLI snowman]

Obviously it won’t be a 96... My point being, I don’t really care about snow in NY. If I wanted to see snow regardless of location, I’d go to Mt Baker where there is 120” of snow in the past 10 days. 

 

Sure, it sucks missing snow at home, but be realistic. If we get 1" here (unlikely) and NYC has 5" with subfreezing highs, you win.

[BLI snowman]

Amazing how the mood here falls so rapidly with one model run that is not so favorable. I still think many of us will still see significant snowfall this weekend. This morning was just a taste!

 

12z operational actually still looks good for tomorrow here, but today is going to be a close-but-no-cigar for Bellingham. Lots of 34 degree snow around town, precip rates not heavy enough to makeup for the lack of offshore flow.

[Guest Monty67]

Wow. 12Z GFS has absolutely fallen apart. Most snowfall from this entire event goes to Everett with 3-4"

 

Seattle sees nothing.

Vancouver and Bellingham see 1-2"

 

#GFSfail

The WRF is still going with 8"+ for me, Half of what it was showing a few days ago. My dad called me for my forecast last night, he trusts me over Environment Canada. I went with 4-12" through Sunday night. Its a big range, but there is a lot of uncertainty. Right around 1" here so far.

 

I find it funny that we are so snow starved that we have resorted to estimating snow depths to the nearest 1/8 of an inch.

[Brennan]

Sure, it sucks missing snow at home, but be realistic. If we get 1" here (unlikely) and NYC has 5" with subfreezing highs, you win.

Right... But if March 1 1989 happens again. I LOSE. 

[MossMan]

Spoke too soon, big flakes coming down hard now.

[TT-SEA]

Total snow from 4 p.m. today through Monday afternoon:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/ww_snow48.60.0000.gif

 

 

Probably still overstated though... remember the 00Z run will probably also back off again since that is whats been happening lately.

 

For reference... here is the same period from the 00Z run last night:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014022200/images_d3/ww_snow48.72.0000.gif

[Skagit Weather]

How does the GEM look this morning?

[BLI snowman]

Right... But if March 1 1989 happens again. I LOSE. 

 

I feel like we've gotten the March snows out of our system for awhile. 2012, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2006, 2003, 2002... we're due for an extended break.

[Skagit Weather]

Total snow from 4 p.m. today through Monday afternoon:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/ww_snow48.60.0000.gif

 

 

Probably still overstated though... remember the 00Z run will probably also back off again since that is whats been happening lately.

I am not sure I trust that map. Their are holes in the precipitation where there probably shouldn't be. I think with this run the 12km is more accurate.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014022212/images_d2/ww_snow48.60.0000.gif

[Brennan]

Total snow from 4 p.m. today through Monday afternoon:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/ww_snow48.60.0000.gif

 

 

Probably still overstated though... remember the 00Z run will probably also back off again since that is whats been happening lately.

So basically no lowland snow this weekend. BUST! I’m going to sleep... PSYCH. Staying awake for the next 48 hours to watch the solid 1-2” pile up. 

[MossMan]

Here is a very short video from earlier.

trim.AFD604BD-1A7C-4E8B-AFA3-6351832D6937.MOV

[TT-SEA]

I am not sure I trust that map. Their are holes in the precipitation where there probably shouldn't be. I think with this run the 12km is more accurate.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014022212/images_d2/ww_snow48.60.0000.gif

 

 

Strongly disagree.   The 4km is much better at showing detail... the 12km version is low resolution.

[westcoastexpat]

How does the GEM look this morning?

 

12Z GEM backed off a tad on snowfall and the bullseye shifted a bit south:

 

Vancouver: 8-10"

Bellingham: 10-12"

Arlington: 12-14"

Everett: 3-5"

North Seattle: 2"

South Seattle: 0.5"

[MossMan]

Total snow from 4 p.m. today through Monday afternoon:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/ww_snow48.60.0000.gif

 

 

Probably still overstated though... remember the 00Z run will probably also back off again since that is whats been happening lately.

 

For reference... here is the same period from the 00Z run last night:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014022200/images_d3/ww_snow48.72.0000.gif

I like the one little dot of dark green right over my house, though

[Brennan]

12Z GEM backed off a tad on snowfall and the bullseye shifted a bit south:

 

Vancouver: 8-10"

Bellingham: 10-12"

Arlington: 12-14"

Everett: 3-5"

North Seattle: 2"

South Seattle: 0.5"

I don’t understand the huge discrepancies between the models. I should probably shut my computer off for the next 24 hours before my brain does a  MARS ATTACKS.