February 2014 in the PNW

[bainbridgekid]

Just woke up to 32/29 with light snow and a dusting on the grass and cars here.

 

So much potential in the next 48 hours.

[MossMan]

Well I just woke up, looked outside and its snowing with a dusting already on the ground. Current temp is 31 degrees.

[Skagit Weather]

Down to 33/31. Snow not sticking to roads of course, by any grassy surfaces are getting it. On radar it looks like some slightly heavier snow is moving down off Vancouver Island.

[westcoastexpat]

Central sound should be happier with the 12Z GEM than the 00Z

 

Looks like the transition zone dips further south for Sunday, more spread-the-wealth with an Arlington-Everett special. Doesn't show the dry outflow that the GFS advertised. 

 

This is going to come down to nowcasting.

 

Raining in Seattle right now.

[MossMan]

Albright from NWS Seattle sure does a good job with details when explaining possible outcomes. Wish the other guys would follow that a little more!

 

Snow has picked up in intensity now, nothing better to wake up to!!

[westcoastexpat]

Albright from NWS Seattle sure does a good job with details when explaining possible outcomes. Wish the other guys would follow that a little more!

 

Snow has picked up in intensity now, nothing better to wake up to!!

 

Great discussion from him this morning, absolutely. 

[Brennan]

SNow has been coming down light here a mile east of BLI, but it’s actually went from light-light to light-moderate in the last 10 minutes. Sticking to everything but the pavement, which probably means I should go take a walk in the forest. 

 

33.6*F

 

Edit: Back to Light-light. 

[westcoastexpat]

I'm thinking Arlington may do better than Bellingham with this event.

[MossMan]

Were has Winterdog been? Wake up, its snowing!

 

Just tried to post a pic, but of course I get the "file too big" error message

[westcoastexpat]

I'm thinking folks in Issaquah may also do quite well with the elevation advantage and the transition zone closer.

[BLI snowman]

SNow has been coming down light here a mile east of BLI, but it’s actually went from light-light to light-moderate in the last 10 minutes. Sticking to everything but the pavement, which probably means I should go take a walk in the forest. 

 

33.6*F

 

Edit: Back to Light-light. 

 

Been pretty light here too. Just a bit on the grass, cars, and bark but nothing measurable yet.

[Skagit Weather]

I'm thinking Arlington may do better than Bellingham with this event.

 

 

I was just going to say I think Skagit County is in the sweet spot with this. Enough outflow to keep things cool, but not excessively dry. Enough moisture streaming in directly from the NW. Enough in the middle where if things shifted south, or stayed north, they'd still be in business.

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see higher totals in that area for sure.

Yeah, it is very hard to tell. At the moment it looks like the heaviest precipitation is headed south into Snohomish County, but whether that is able to stay snow and whether it continues to head south is the question.

[Skagit Weather]

It looks like Bellingham has recorded .04" of precipitation in the last three hours which ideally would translate to almost half an inch, but it sounds like not that much has fallen.

 

Edit: The cameras up there do look pretty snowy.

http://images.wsdot.wa.gov/nw/005vc26484.jpg

[westcoastexpat]

My thoughts right now come Monday:

 

Vancouver: 5-7"

Bellingham: 6-9"

Arlington: 7-10"

Everett: 3-4", higher elevations with 4-5"

North Seattle: 2-4"

South Seattle: 2"

[MossMan]

Looks like snow is picking up in intensity here, all surfaces are now white with the exception of the paved areas. I could see that changing soon now that the snow is falling more heavily.

[Brennan]

It looks like Bellingham has recorded .04" of precipitation in the last three hours which ideally would translate to almost half an inch, but it sounds like not that much has fallen.

 

Edit: The cameras up there do look pretty snowy.

http://images.wsdot.wa.gov/nw/005vc26484.jpg

I would venture to say that we might have close to 0.4” right now. Probably more like 0.25 to 0.3 though.   LOL. 

[Brennan]

My thoughts right now come Monday:

 

Vancouver: 5-7"

Bellingham: 6-9"

Arlington: 7-10"

Everett: 3-4", higher elevations with 4-5"

North Seattle: 2-4"

South Seattle: 2"

This may sound like a joke, but it’s not. How much snow do you think Snow Wizard will get at his place in Covington? Elevation 400ft. 

[westcoastexpat]

This may sound like a joke, but it’s not. How much snow do you think Snow Wizard will get at his place in Covington? Elevation 400ft. 

 

Lol, not really sure. I'm not too familiar with how Covington does in these sorts of events. My guess would be 1-3" of wet snow on Sunday.

[Snowman5678]

Light flurry here currently and 33.

[Skagit Weather]

Latest WRF has snow changing to rain for most places after about 1p.m. and no snow tonight for any area.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014022212/images_d2/ww_snow24.24.0000.gif

[westcoastexpat]

12Z GFS showing little to no snow today, suggesting a changeover to rain... a bit surprised. I think it's wrong. It's as if the GFS wants to anger the northern sound by giving everybody more snow than them this winter. 

[snow maniac]

Getting some light snow.

[brody]

Latest WRF has snow changing to rain for most places after about 1p.m. and no snow tonight for any area.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014022212/images_d2/ww_snow24.24.0000.gif

im not worried

[westcoastexpat]

im not worried

 

I wouldn't be worried if I were you either. GFS has changed so much in the past 24 hours that it clearly doesn't have a good handle on the situation. It doesn't even have the snow falling right now on its register.

[brody]

nearly half an inch in Everson, Wa per a tweet 

[westcoastexpat]

nearly half an inch in Everson, Wa per a tweet 

 

I believe it.

 

Abbotsford reporting half an inch also.

[Brennan]

Temperature at BLI dropped from 34 to 33 in the past 20 minutes and visibility dropped from 2 miles to 1.25. We need slightly higher precip rates to keep the temp down today, but I can’t imagine it changing to rain completely if there IS steady light precip. Had this started late last night and fallen throughout the night I think accumulations would have been considerably higher. . . obviously. 

[Brennan]

nearly half an inch in Everson, Wa per a tweet 

http://www.komonews.com/news/local/Winter-Storm-Watch-in-effect-for-parts-of-region-as-snow-looms-246680471.html

 

This was in Lynden today at daybreak. 

 

Edit: I see the NWS has Lynden at 30*F currently with light snow falling. That tells me they are going to be the big winner today. 

[MossMan]

Snowing even harder now, but temp has been creeping up though. Currently 32.5.

[westcoastexpat]

Wow. 12Z GFS has absolutely fallen apart. Most snowfall from this entire event goes to Everett with 3-4"

 

Seattle sees nothing.

Vancouver and Bellingham see 1-2"

 

#GFSfail

[brody]

Wow. 12Z GFS has absolutely fallen apart. Most snowfall from this entire event goes to Everett with 3-4"

 

Seattle sees nothing.

Vancouver and Bellingham see 1-2"

 

#GFSfail

yes it sure did 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Snowing lightly here right next to the ocean between Nanaimo and Parksville. The temp is near the freezing mark and it's sticking to the grass/trees/bricks, sure would be nice to get some heavier stuff before the afternoon. Precip intensity is going to be critical today; I still think tomorrow will turn out the better for accumulating snowfall. I'm not sure what EC is seeing that I'm not but the pattern shaping up for tomorrow looks like one that would by far favour snowfall over rain.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Amazing to see another arctic intrusion next weekend showing up. Btw snowing here.

[BLI snowman]

Pretty lame here thus far, still just a dusting. Cams show Lynden/Sumas with maybe close to an inch.

[Skagit Weather]

Temp warmed slightly to 33.3F, dp 32, but precipitation picking up with about 3/8" on the ground.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not surprised to see the GFS backing off and coming around to the other models.

 

Clear skies here with a low of 27. Going to be a nice day for a hike.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Full blown snow storm shown next weekend on the 12z next weekend. Crazy.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think next weekend still has some pretty decent potential.

[Skagit Weather]

It is strange, but it looks like almost every wsdot camera is out on the northern Olympic peninsula.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Not surprised to see the GFS backing off and coming around to the other models.

 

Clear skies here with a low of 27. Going to be a nice day for a hike.

Did any of the models show it snowing around hood canal this morning?