February 2014 in the PNW

[Snowman5678]

Zoomed in CDN snow accum model for you all, the other ones are a bit harder to read from distance. 

shows 6"+ for me but i bet a decent amount of that is resolution.

[Snowman5678]

So right now we have the WRF GFS with the snowline pretty much all the way down to like Kelso.

 

We have the ECMWF with the snow line around Mt. Vernon north.

 

Then there is the GEM with the snow line about Everett north but does give areas east of lake washington some snow too.

 

The snow line will probably be between Everett and Tacoma, I dont think it will be further south but who knows. Im hoping the 12z ECMWF pushes more towards a GEM GFS blend.

[Snowman5678]

I think NWCN mixed up there totals. 

 

 

Edit: Nevermind apparently they are going off the updated special weather statement.
 

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT IS THE PERIOD WHEN SIGNIFICANT LOWLAND SNOW
IS A GREATER POSSIBILITY. MORE PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO
WESTERN WASHINGTON...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA
PUSHES COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON FROM THE
NORTH. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE AREAS OF LOWLAND SNOW...AT LEAST IN THE
NORTH INTERIOR OF WESTERN WASHINGTON.

CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS LOW...MAINLY WITH REGARD TO HOW FAR
SOUTH INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON THE COLD AIR WILL SPREAD.

THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT TERRAIN ABOVE 400 FT OR SO IN
THE SEATTLE AREA AND MUCH OF THE PUGET SOUND REGION WILL RECEIVE
UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. THE NORTH COAST...THE LOWLANDS ALONG THE
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA...THE NORTH INTERIOR...THE HOOD CANAL
AREA...AND THE EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS NEAR THE CASCADES COULD
GET MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...POSSIBLY 3 TO 8 INCHES.

THERE IS STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AND THE FORECAST DETAILS ARE
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. PLEASE CHECK BACK FOR THE LATEST FORECAST
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...OR ADVISORIES.

$

MCDONNAL
WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE"

[HighlandExperience]

I think NWCN mixed up there totals. 

 

 

 

LOL wish cast

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Pretty sure the NWS will issue a winter storm watch from Olympia north. I think hood canal will do well. I would not be surprised to see 4 inches many places north of Tacoma.

[GHweatherChris]

Pretty sure the NWS will issue a winter storm watch from Olympia north. I think hood canal will do well. I would not be surprised to see 4 inches many places north of Tacoma.

Nah, others on here have gone of their way to explain why.  No watch will be needed south of the Canadian border.

[westcoastexpat]

My forecast as of today:

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Nah, others on here have gone of their way to explain why.  No watch will be needed south of the Canadian border.

I have never seen the wrf show this much solid snow cover so close to game time and fail 100%. Plus we have a cool air mass over us now and that will help. It was snowing at my house when I left for work today. I do live in a favored area but still shows the freezing level is low.

[epiceast]

My forecast as of today:

 

http://i.imgur.com/k67rgPF.png

You forgot the bulls-eye, North Olympic coast should get the most snow with northerly flow in any case unless the Low goes way north.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

My forecast as of today:

 

http://i.imgur.com/k67rgPF.png

Not a bad call. But you should of gave the hood canal area more.

[GHweatherChris]

I have never seen the wrf show this much solid snow cover so close to game time and fail 100%. Plus we have a cool air mass over us now and that will help. It was snowing at my house when I left for work today. I do live in a favored area but still shows the freezing level is low.

I think this will end up being a significant regionwide event the time it is over.  

 

I won't see anything til Sunday night, and could be up to 4 inches.

 

The GFS was the only one that showed some snow here 2 weeks ago as well.

[westcoastexpat]

You forgot the bulls-eye, North Olympic coast should get the most snow with northerly flow in any case unless the Low goes way north.

 

I just tried to focus on areas where most of our posters are located. We don't have many (if any) North Olympic coast posters

[HighlandExperience]

Hood Canal will get 8 plus inches. 

[westcoastexpat]

Not a bad call. But you should of gave the hood canal area more.

 

 

I didn't bother shading that area in because we have so few posters living there. Obviously that area is going to get crushed.

[Parksvillewx]

My forecast as of today:

 

http://i.imgur.com/k67rgPF.png

 

Nice forecast.  Puts me in quite a good spot.

[The Swamp]

You fool. Don't you know who I am?? I make more money than any mets in the entire region! People FLOCK to my website! Excuse me while I go masturbate to my photo and my weather forecasts.

. Love your humor.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I hope you guys up north score with this one.  Some of you sound as excited as a virgin on the verge.

Idk that's hard to match.

[Weather101]

My forecast as of today:

 

http://i.imgur.com/k67rgPF.png

I like that 3-7

[The Swamp]

Euro says no snow Everett south. Dang it!

[epiceast]

Are you the new K-Mart?

K Mart has better artistic skills.

[hailstop]

You guys think it's hard enough to forecast snow for this event...imagine if you had to take into consideration road temperatures.

 

#ugh

[snow_wizard]

I will admit the ECMWF and GFS are both very possible outcomes. It will be interesting to see what happens. Little question Whatcom County will score nicely. They totally deserve it. I am going all in for Whatcom County at this point.

[Guest Monty67]

You guys think it's hard enough to forecast snow for this event...imagine if you had to take into consideration road temperatures.

 

#ugh

What are your thoughts for areas that your forecast for.

[HighlandExperience]

I will admit the ECMWF and GFS are both very possible outcomes. It will be interesting to see what happens. Little question Whatcom County will score nicely. They totally deserve it. I am going all in for Whatcom County at this point.

 

Our best hope is for a blend of the two. 

[snow_wizard]

Our best hope is for a blend of the two.

It's so frustrating that the Euro didn't move toward the GFS at all. At the same time the 12z WRF was quite a bit colder than the 0z. Weird.

[westcoastexpat]

12Z Euro stays consistent closer to the Canadian solution. No surprise there. GFS continues to be off its rocker this winter.

[Guest Monty67]

Our best hope is for a blend of the two.

Rooting for the Canadian are we?

[GHweatherChris]

God forbid the GFS actually be the correct model on this one, just because the others look different doesn't mean .

 

A broken clock is right twice a day.

[Jesse]

Both the GFS and Euro show a decent snow event down here. The Euro gets close to something interesting later on in the run too.

[westcoastexpat]

God forbid the GFS actually be the correct model on this one, just because the others look different doesn't mean s**t.

 

A broken clock is right twice a day.

 

It does mean something if two major models show similar solutions and have both had a better track record recently; otherwise, meteorologists would roll a die with every storm to decide which model to base their forecasts on. Trends, patterns, initializations, sampling, etc all are variables that you have to consider. Scientific reasoning isn't played like a game of Yahtzee.

[GHweatherChris]

It does mean something if two major models show similar solutions and have both had a better track record recently; otherwise, meteorologists would roll a dice with every storm to decide which model to base their forecasts on. Trends, patterns, initializations, sampling, etc all are variables that you have to consider. Scientific reasoning isn't played like a game of Yahtzee.

If anything, the Euro and GEM have actually trended towards the GFS, albeit not much at all, but they have.  The GFS has not wavered at all, I call that a trend.

[TT-SEA]

God forbid the GFS actually be the correct model on this one, just because the others look different doesn't mean s**t.

 

A broken clock is right twice a day.

 

 

This is true.   And it could certainly happen this time.

[westcoastexpat]

If anything, the Euro and GEM have actually trended towards the GFS, albeit not much at all, but they have.  The GFS has not wavered at all, I call that a trend.

 

No. The GEM has been extremely consistent with this event with its track. The Euro has trended toward the GEM, not the GFS.

[GHweatherChris]

No. The GEM has been extremely consistent with this event with its track. The Euro has trended toward the GEM, not the GFS.

Yep canadian likes the canadian.

 

Several people the last couple days have said the EURO trended slightly toward the GFS, not so much about the GEM, except you.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Well one thing is for sure. All this nail biting bickering and cheering wont make a difference.

[hailstop]

What are your thoughts for areas that your forecast for.

 

Unfortunately, can't really say.

[hailstop]

I will say though that anyone expressing high confidence in any scenario is fooling themselves.

[GHweatherChris]

I will say though that anyone expressing high confidence in any scenario is fooling themselves.

Perfectly said.

[westcoastexpat]

Yep canadian likes the canadian.

 

Several people the last couple days have said the EURO trended slightly toward the GFS, not so much about the GEM, except you.

 

I don't care what several people have said. Look at the models yourself. You can go back and view past runs, too. People don't seem to talk about the Canadian much in here, that doesn't mean it hasn't been consistent. It is clear the the Euro has trended toward the GEM. It's not ambiguous: it is what it is. The GFS is on its own. 

[westcoastexpat]

I will say though that anyone expressing high confidence in any scenario is fooling themselves.

 

Absolutely. This is very borderline right now and any shift in track could have very large implications.

 

I do think that anyone in the Seattle area expecting 5"+ is fooling themselves, though.

 

I put confidence in my current forecast at barely 60%