May Observations and Discussion

[Geos]

Forecast now down to 36° here tomorrow night. 

 

Yikes!

 

 

Wouldn't be surprised if it was foggy near the lake tomorrow.

[Geos]

39° already under clear skies. Brrr.

 

Seeing patches of frost at 11pm.

[CentralNebWeather]

Good rains from Holdrege to the West and Southwest.  Parts of NW Kansas and SW Nebraska got well over an inch.  More to come.

 

 

Most of the showers will have moved out of the forecast area by later this morning. Highs this afternoon will only reach the lower to mid 50s. Thursday will be a dry day with highs reaching the lower to mid 60s under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Then we have a decent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast for Friday at around 60 percent. Highs Friday will reach the upper 50s to lower 60s with a wind from the east at 10 to 15 mph. Thunderstorm chances will continue through the weekend into Memorial Day. This is a big travel weekend with lots of planned outdoor activities, so please monitor the forecast diligently over the next several days for severe weather potential across the region. Know your risks this weekend and take the appropriate actions to ensure safety first.

[Tom]

Flew in late last night on a very smooth sailing flight from AZ into ORD.  There wasn't much weather action taking place over the central CONUS.  Although, I was able to catch some visibility before the sun set and saw some snow capped mountains over New Mexico from the storm systems that went through over the last week or so.

 

When we touched down, all the the true die hard Hawks fans tuned into their smart phones and listened live on the radio as the Hawks were tied going into 2nd OT!  We almost started a Let's Go Hawks chant on the plane!  Hahaha...what a great victory by the hard working, OT dominating, victorious Hawks!  #7 more wins baby!

 

Anyway, it's a bit chilly back here with a low around 40F IMBY...brrrrr....anxiously waiting for some summer time warmth~!

[Tom]

Saw this Tweet...Alliance, NE....say what???

 

 

[james1976]

Saw this Tweet...Alliance, NE....say what???

 

 

When was this from?

[james1976]

mid 40s and rain here.

[Maxim]

If you want warmth, then take a look at any model in the long range (or just wait until tomorrow). Growing consensus of a torch to end the month.

[Hawkeye]

We have a very impressive temp departure today.  Our avg high is 75 and it's currently 45 with light rain.  The record low high is 47.  We may rise a few degrees later this afternoon when the rain tapers off.

 

The next few days look much nicer.

[Geos]

Bottomed out at 33° late last night with a light frost. Now there has been rain and sleet reports coming out of northern IL with temps around 40°. Typical late March day...

 

haha

[Madtown]

Nice Virgo storm here all day today.

[Geos]

Today is about as raw as you can get for May here! Not even making 50° today.

[Tom]

When was this from?

From yesterday I believe or the day before...

[Tom]

Today is about as raw as you can get for May here! Not even making 50° today.

Your telling me!  Not used to seeing a gloomy cloud deck and temps in the 40's.  This is exactly the type of weather I experienced back on March 24th when I left for Phoenix.  Glad this weekend is turning out to be a warm one and boating season will officially begin!

[Tom]

When the warm phase of this year's LRC cycles back through around Week 1 of June, gotta feeling its going to get pretty darn warm!  Probably the first heat waves of the season in the Plains/Midwest/Lakes.  Next week ain't looking too bad shabby either.

[Tom]

Bottomed out at 33° late last night with a light frost. Now there has been rain and sleet reports coming out of northern IL with temps around 40°. Typical late March day...

 

haha

Those Sleet reports (frozen precip) could set another record for so late in the season in back to back years.  Currently 41F in Woodstock....freakin' crazy.

[Geos]

Those Sleet reports (frozen precip) could set another record for so late in the season in back to back years.  Currently 41F in Woodstock....freakin' crazy.

 

41° also in Waukegan and Zion now. Hasn't rained a drop in Racine yet. Very sharp cut off through Kenosha.

[Maxim]

Perfect day. This is how it should be in May.

[Hawkeye]

The late week weather certainly is spectacular.

 

Models are suggesting we could see rain for the entire period from Saturday night at midnight through Monday morning as a plume of deep moisture lifts up over eastern Iowa and Illinois.  Unfortunately, low instability, low shear, and a deeply-moist atmosphere means little chance of anything too exciting.  Perhaps, Monday evening/night and beyond could bring a better shot at stronger storms.

[Tom]

Here is TWC's take on the Summer forecast...

 

http://dsx.weather.com//util/image/w/june-august-cast_0.jpg?v=at&w=980&h=551&api=7db9fe61-7414-47b5-9871-e17d87b8b6a0

 

 

 

http://s.w-x.co/animation-temps.gif

 

 

 

 

 

 

Then there is the new updated CPC Forecast....

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_temp_small.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_prcp_small.gif

[Maxim]

CFSV2 has been calling for a torch for June, and it's been doing a stellar job lately. Not buying into the "much below average" at all, but they seem to have a strong cold bias anyway.

[Niko]

TWC clearly states that a strong El Nino will be developing this summer. I hope this wont impact our winter down the road.

 

As for cooler temperatures this summer, well, I dont mind at all. I prefer 70s and 80s at the highest, than, 90s and 100s. Oppressive heat can be dangerous if you don't take proper precautions. Also, this cooler weather will make conditions excellent for playing basketball outdoors.

[Tom]

June will have roughly 3 weeks of very warm weather if the LRC is correct.  I'm thinking around here it will avg above normal in June.

 

TWC clearly states that a strong El Nino will be developing this summer. I hope this wont impact our winter down the road.

 

As for cooler temperatures this summer, well, I dont mind at all. I prefer 70s and 80s at the highest, than, 90s and 100s. Oppressive heat can be dangerous if you don't take proper precautions. Also, this cooler weather will make conditions excellent for playing basketball outdoors.

It's also using the analogs of a strong El Nino that had nowhere close to the SST's that we currently have in the Pacific.  For example, the northern Pacific has the "ring of warm" waters hugging the West Coast.  You need to take that into consideration.  Obviously, TWC has its own agenda (if you know what I mean).

[Geos]

I noticed in the last week a sliver of below normal ocean temperatures hugging California and Oregon. It will be interesting to see what become of that area. 

Quite the negative anomaly around the Canadian Maritime Provinces. 

 

 

 

----

 

Peaked at 58° today with mostly sunny skies until late this afternoon when more mid level clouds arrived. Bottomed out at 39° this morning. I know even in early June it isn't unheard of having lows near 40°.

[james1976]

That looks like a lot of warm ocean water if im seeing it right.

[Maxim]

An El Nino in the summer doesn't always mean cooler than normal temps. The fact that they're calling for a 2009 redux is pretty incompetent on their part.

[Geos]

A really blahhh day today. Overcast, kind of cool and scattered light rain.

Supposed to stay in the 60s now today with the East wind.

[Seahawkfan]

Very humid here feels like a sauna outside temperature 77 with 70% humidity dew point 67

[Tom]

Tornado Watches posted for E IA/W IL....Tornado touching down near Rock Island, IA

 

Tornado Warning

TORNADO WARNING
IAC163-250045-
/O.NEW.KDVN.TO.W.0010.150525T0018Z-150525T0045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
718 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SCOTT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...

* UNTIL 745 PM CDT

* AT 717 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER MONTPELIER...
OR 10 MILES WEST OF ROCK ISLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
WALCOTT AROUND 730 PM CDT.
ROCK ISLAND AROUND 735 PM CDT.
DAVENPORT AROUND 740 PM CDT.
BETTENDORF...ELDRIDGE AND LONG GROVE AROUND 745 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE CREDIT
ISLAND...DAVENPORT MUNICIPAL AIRPORT AND WEST LAKE PARK.

PEOPLE ATTENDING RIVER BANDITS BASEBALL SHOULD SEEK SAFE SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY!

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
INTERSTATE 74 IN IOWA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 2.
INTERSTATE 80 IN IOWA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 287 AND 300.
INTERSTATE 280 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 10.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A
BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY
BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN A MOBILE HOME...OR
IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

[Geos]

I didn't even realize there was severe that far ^ north yesterday. Variable temperatures today with some marine influence and cloudy skies. Left home at 68°, then east side of Racine; 55° and fog.

[Maxim]

I didn't even realize there was severe that far ^ north yesterday. Variable temperatures today with some marine influence and cloudy skies. Left home at 68°, then east side of Racine; 55° and fog.

now 74° at UGN...

[Maxim]

And once again, every other reporting site is coming in 2-5 degrees warmer than ORD. What's up with that? It's not the first time either, ORD seems to be coming in too cool lately. Sensor needs to be checked there.

[Geos]

now 74° at UGN...

 

Today the temperature was a constant roller coaster ride. First clouds and some fog with variable winds in the morning then went to rain, clouds then the sun all afternoon. Was an interesting day weatherwise. 

0.42" of rain so far... Watching some cells rolling in from the southwest.

[Tom]

Interesting to see that the damage done on the southwest of Chicago was from an EF-0 Tornado...

 

[Geos]

Weather has been typical mid spring weather. Scattered showers and lots of clouds the last two days, but mild. 

 

0.61" of rain in the last 48 hours.

 

That wasn't a cold air tornado by chance was it?

I didn't think the conditions were right for typical tornadic weather.

[Geos]

Very mild and sunny all day today. High of 77°. One more summery day and then back to cool weather. Saturday's forecast falling for mid 50s early with falling temps into the 40s! Cool weather will at least keep the mosquitoes at bay and I can do things outside without them! haha

[Tom]

Weather has been typical mid spring weather. Scattered showers and lots of clouds the last two days, but mild. 

 

0.61" of rain in the last 48 hours.

 

That wasn't a cold air tornado by chance was it?

I didn't think the conditions were right for typical tornadic weather.

It might in fact have been one.  Pretty rare to see such high winds from a tornado in the city limits.

 

Meantime, nice red paint bomb over the Lakes and surrounding region over the next 6-10 days...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif

[Geos]

A scant 0.07" of rain today so far. Haven't heard any thunder since the 10th here.

Made it to 81°, which is the 4th time at or above 80° this year.

 

Wondering what impacts the wet ground across the Midwest and Southern Plains will have on temperatures this summer. I'm betting no strong heat domes will want to build over areas that have been soaked.

[Tom]

Feels like a typical mid summer night out there.  Calm winds, damp/moist air mass...love these kinda nights...although, this is the calm before the storm (so to speak).  Tomorrow afternoon will have a complete opposite feel and I sure hope the Hawks can take home a Game 7 victory on the road and make another appearance in the Stanley Cup Finals!  Go Hawks!

[Geos]

Rain is slowly moving back in. Definitely raw outside today. Low overcast, classic of a marine layer.

Down to 48°.

 

Got that "misleading" high for the day of 70° - that was 11 hours ago.

 

Definitely some changes in the northeast Pacific Ocean. More cold pockets showing up in recent days.