September 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Maybe PDX can avoid 80 today with less offshore flow present. 

 

If they hit it, it will be their 85th 80+ day of the calendar year, which would beat 1967's 84 days, which they tied with yesterday's disaster.

 

It's so weird to see people scouring the models for more ridging after the unprecedented warm and sunny stretch we have seen this year.

[Black Hole]

Maybe later in the month? 

 

1972 and 1986 had no rain at all here in the foothills until the 3rd week of the month.    I guess 1997 was pretty wet in October.

We have seen some big cold late in the month during el ninos. 1991, 2002, and 2006 I think all saw that. The main feature that long range models seem to be identifying is a strong upper level high either overhead or to the NE and also to the SW which loosely builds over the area in between. Depending on how much that happens I think tells whether its wet or not. (If its too weak you get a lot of dying systems I imagine) That said, most of the longer range models do keep some cooler/wetter weather around for the first week of October before drying it out, and afterwards we would probably see some periodic systems that push through even if ridging is over all winning. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF still has the ULL.    And rain on Friday.

 

I like having at least one model to rely on for consistency!  

[richard mann]

The ECMWF ....

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015092812!!chart.gif

 

18Z GFS ....

Looks cold in Northern Canada.

North, westhern Canada, with emphasis. If I may here bbk. ..

 

— Set against last year with all (most.) of the main cold stores having been focused way east of the Rockies North.

[richard mann]

Full 12Z ECMWF run is great.

 

Sunday has the potential to be really nice... sunny and well into the 70s (near 80 around PDX). And then just a continuation of ridging all of next week.

 

.. You tell'm "Tony".

[TT-SEA]

We have seen some big cold late in the month during el ninos. 1991, 2002, and 2006 I think all saw that. The main feature that long range models seem to be identifying is a strong upper level high either overhead or to the NE and also to the SW which loosely builds over the area in between. Depending on how much that happens I think tells whether its wet or not. (If its too weak you get a lot of dying systems I imagine) That said, most of the longer range models do keep some cooler/wetter weather around for the first week of October before drying it out, and afterwards we would probably see some periodic systems that push through even if ridging is over all winning. 

 

12Z ECMWF shows the ULL quickly blowing by on Friday night and then ridging for the rest of the run... even at 240 hours.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015092912!!chart.gif

[richard mann]

And now the 12Z Canadian has abandoned the ULL solution.  Pretty good chance the 12Z ECMWF follows suit based on model behavior in the past.

.. More actual "verb" age used here with these comments of yours at least. Even those just above.

 

(Fewer adjectives. ?)

[TT-SEA]

.. More actual "verb" age used here with these comments of yours at least. Even those just above.(Fewer adjectives. ?)

Quote is outdated now. ECMWF stuck to its solution.

[richard mann]

.. O.k. (Not really what I'd been referring to more.)

Related more specifically to what either had been being shown then or is being more currently, .. I'm expecting a main shake up in what the models come up with on the 4th or so, when per my estimation (projection.) main cold starts to expand south again.  @

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF says 80 is a distinct possibility on at least Sunday and Monday at PDX... and possibly more chances next week.

[richard mann]

.. Which would suggest some amount of ridging then, Right. ?

 

With what I've projected, that ridging could be chopped down. 

 

— The over-all force of movement of colder air mass is decreasing at this point, so this potential is perhaps somewhat questionable. But still certainly there I feel where looking at what I have more generally more both latitudinally and longitudinally. Essentially, new and fresh cold movement out of the north, beginning on the 4th, together with a gradually more stepped up movement and pace of colder air more eastward at about the same time. 

[Front Ranger]

12Z ECMWF says 80 is a distinct possibility on at least Sunday and Monday at PDX... and possibly more chances next week.

 

But no 90s? 

[TT-SEA]

But no 90s? 

No.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 12z GFS was nice. 

[TT-SEA]

Almost October and our tomatoes continue to ripen... we have picked well over a hundred so far and they show no signs of slowing down yet.   Another benefit of our nice weather.   

 

[Jesse]

Looks like another 80 is imminent for PDX.

 

85 80+ days for 2015 now (a record) and 29 90+ days (a record).

 

What an insane warm season.

[TT-SEA]

Surprised no one is posting or discussing the interesting windstorm in the last half of the GFS run.

 

GFS can't get it right just 3 days out!

 

When the ECMWF shows something coming within 10 days it might be time to discuss... but that is not in the cards right now.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015092912!!chart.gif

[Front Ranger]

Looks like another 80 is imminent for PDX.

 

85 80+ days for 2015 now (a record) and 29 90+ days (a record).

 

What an insane warm season.

 

Just imagine if you hadn't had a normalish September.

 

2015 kind of blew it - had a chance to really solidify its records against increasingly stiff competition in the future, but failed to really pile on the 80+ and 90+ days down the home stretch. We know PDX is capable of much more in September.

 

Oh well...there's always next summer.

[TT-SEA]

Just imagine if you hadn't had a normalish September.

 

2015 kind of blew it - had a chance to really solidify its records against increasingly stiff competition in the future, but failed to really pile on the 80+ and 90+ days down the home stretch. We know PDX is capable of much more in September.

 

Oh well...there's always next summer.

This is very true. 2015 is a sitting duck now in the coming years. Will get plucked off like 2009 and 2014.

[Front Ranger]

This is very true. 2015 is a sitting duck now in the coming years. Will get plucked off like 2009 and 2014.

 

You gotta capitalize while you're ahead. Warm Season 2015 will go down as one that had real potential to be an all-time great, but just ran out of steam and couldn't finish strong.

 

Hate to see unrealized potential go to waste, but as you said, it opens up the door for future years to shine.

[Abbotsford_wx]

Almost October and our tomatoes continue to ripen... we have picked well over a hundred so far and they show no signs of slowing down yet.   Another benefit of our nice weather.   

 

 

How do you keep your tomato plants so green? Ours always start turning yellow/brown, spotted in August. By now most of the leaves are dead, even though there are still tomatoes ripening.

[TT-SEA]

How do you keep your tomato plants so green? Ours always start turning yellow/brown, spotted in August. By now most of the leaves are dead, even though there are still tomatoes ripening.

 

 

We have done nothing with them except for watering... and we stopped that in late August when it really started raining.   We have not touched them for the last 6 weeks other than to keep picking tomatoes!

[Jesse]

Just imagine if you hadn't had a normalish September.

 

2015 kind of blew it - had a chance to really solidify its records against increasingly stiff competition in the future, but failed to really pile on the 80+ and 90+ days down the home stretch. We know PDX is capable of much more in September.

 

Oh well...there's always next summer.

Yeah, 2015 has been pretty underwhelming from a warmth perspective. That much is certain.

 

No doubt in my mind this warm season will probably appear pleasant if not a bit chilly to future PDX weenies of the 2040s. 2015 will be their 1954.

[TT-SEA]

No. This is a weather forum. Speculative model discussion is encouraged, not discouraged, even when it doesn't pertain to October ridging.

 

OK

 

I just wouldn't expect too many people to talk blindly about the 18Z GFS in the long range with no support from the ECMWF operational or even the ECMWF weeklies.   

[Front Ranger]

I haven't even looked at the 18z GFS in weeks. Does that make me a bad weenie?

[Jesse]

Bans for everyone.

 

In all seriousness, I miss DJ Droppin.

Aside from the occasional violent outbursts, he would liven the place up.

[Front Ranger]

Aside from the occasional violent outbursts, he would liven the place up.

 

It's late September. There is nothing for him to track.

 

He's always been the type to show up for the action, when the place has livened up anyway. Arctic events, major heatwaves, or windstorms. None of those on the horizon, though I still haven't looked at the 18z GFS, maybe it shows all three.

[bainbridgekid]

It's late September. There is nothing for him to track.

 

He's always been the type to show up for the action, when the place has livened up anyway. Arctic events, major heatwaves, or windstorms. None of those on the horizon, though I still haven't looked at the 18z GFS, maybe it shows all three.

He's been very active on some weather Facebook groups this Summer.

 

I'm sure he'll come back here though when things get more exciting.

[stuffradio]

How do you keep your tomato plants so green? Ours always start turning yellow/brown, spotted in August. By now most of the leaves are dead, even though there are still tomatoes ripening.

Even mine are still green.

[TT-SEA]

MM5 show the potential for convection and heavy rain from SEA to BLI on Friday afternoon and evening.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/ww_pcp3.66.0000.gif

 

And then a spectacular weekend with sunshine and warming temperatures.   It shows many places well into the 70s and even pushing 80 by Saturday afternoon.

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d3/wa_tsfc.84.0000.gif

 

And then even warmer on Sunday.  

[TT-SEA]

...it looks like Sunday that it will be reasonably warm, not "near 80", but comfortable low to mid 70's.

 

 

That is obviously wrong.   61 at PDX with offshore flow, sunshine, and warm 850mb temps??     Not going to happen.   (Just looked again and that map is for Saturday... and still way too cold to the south of Seattle).

 

PDX will easily make a run at 80 on Sunday (GFS MOS has 78)... some places around the Sound as well.

 

MM5 shows a much more accurate depiction of temperatures for Sunday:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/wa_tsfc.108.0000.gif

 

SEA will probably be in the low to mid 70s on both days this weekend.    Good chance of 80 out here in the foothills on Sunday.

[Black Hole]

...it looks like Sunday that it will be reasonably warm, not "near 80", but comfortable low to mid 70's.

This map is for  00z Sunday, which means Saturday at 5pm. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is the same as previous runs... possible convection and heavy rain from Seattle to Bellingham on Friday afternoon and evening.

 

Sunny and in the low 70s on Saturday... then pushing 80 for many places on Sunday and Monday as well.

 

Near perfect weekend ahead.    And next week looks great as well per the 12Z ECMWF.

[Abbotsford_wx]

That is obviously wrong.   61 at PDX with offshore flow, sunshine, and warm 850mb temps??     Not going to happen.   (Just looked again and that map is for Saturday... and still way too cold to the south of Seattle).

 

PDX will easily make a run at 80 on Sunday (GFS MOS has 78)... some places around the Sound as well.

 

MM5 shows a much more accurate depiction of temperatures for Sunday:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/wa_tsfc.108.0000.gif

 

SEA will probably be in the low to mid 70s on both days this weekend.    Good chance of 80 out here in the foothills on Sunday.

 

Sweet... I'm right in a hot pocket as well.

[TT-SEA]

Damnit.

 

 

And those temperatures in a perfect grid like that just screams horrible resolution.   Why would you even use a map like that when we have high resolution tools like the MM5 and the ECMWF detailed maps?    Its like the craptastic Meteostar for high/low temperatures which are horrifically bad.    That tool should only be used to look at upper level temperatures and thickness.

[TT-SEA]

Im pretty sure it was the standard GFS 32k output. That is still an acceptable resolution to investigate meteorological events.

 

Are there acceptable maps and resolutions that should only be used in this forum? What about how many hours out? Is it ok to post about cold and damp weather in the summer? What about posts that are in adulation of lack of sunlight in the winter?

Come on. It was a fair criticism of an obviously poor map with a perfect grid of temperatures that screams poor resolution.

 

Like using cans and a string when you are holding your iPhone.

[Jesse]

PDX ended up 0.5 degrees below average for September.

 

Winning.

 

It had its ups and downs, but overall it was probably my favorite September since 2007

[ShawniganLake]

PDX ended up 0.5 degrees below average for September.

 

Winning.

 

It had its ups and downs, but overall it was probably my favorite September since 2007

Below average? I thought that wasn't in the cards?

[Jesse]

Below average? I thought that wasn't in the cards?

Cool nights the last couple days of the month saved them.

[ShawniganLake]

Cool nights the last couple days of the month saved them.

Those cool nights towards the end of the month brought Shawnigan lake down to -1.8F for the month. Tied with 2007 for the coolest September in the last 19 years (1996).