Frustrating model runs so far this morning. 1.5”+ of moisture and probably only .25-.50” will be snow.

Axial Seamount off US coast could erupt anytime in 2025. https://www.earth.com/news/axial-seamount-large-underwater-volcano-off-us-coast-will-likely-erupt-in-2025/

Absolutely. But I would bet that’s not possible with no snow cover or close to impossible.

Just got back from Key West Road trip. Experienced all kinds of weather from the drive. Spectacular sunsets in the backroads of Georgia. Northern Florida has some tornado damage a day earlier before we were there. Sleet in Northern Kentucky, which changed to snow flurries in most of Ohio yesterday. Going up to Dearborn there was a definite border of snow on I-94. South of it there nothing. Great trip. Congrats to those in the path of this upcoming snowstorm. It felt like it was coming in Kentucky yesterday.

2022-23 train of Colorado lows dropping significant snows all winter was absolutely anomalous. Look at it similar to the sierra-nevada snowfall records of the same year, one should never hope or expect that pattern to setup and persist like it did that year. I would say for any particular location in the northern plains, three colorado lows that end up with >6" snowfall each in Dec-Mar could be expected, some years there are none. How many tracked sw to ne centered from about sioux falls to duluth in 2022-23... 10 or more? When I look back, the snowiest periods for the midwest/plains the majority of the time they end up as a result of N/W flows. Though there seems to be 3 varieties of NW flow for the MW/Plains. One is a bone dry with moisture starved shortwaves moving so fast nothing but LES is produced. Second, is when a train of clippers gets established and a narrow band gets the jackpot of snow, outside that band gets nothing. Think Feb 2021 for some here that were in that jackpot band in Iowa/N IL. Third is one is the NW flow similar to 2013-14 over the northern plains. I don't know how to how to quantify this type but it was full of fast clippers with a variety of tracks. 13-14 had to many to count clippers with small bands of >6" snowfalls, but the 2-3" areas were broad, sometimes hundreds of miles wide. And, of course 13-14 was cold, cold, cold... I would love to read an analysis of what made 13-14 different from other NW flows, I know when I lookup 500mb anomaly maps alone don't explain the difference. For Sioux Falls, look into Jan-Feb 2010. That featured the second type of NW flow that favored the eastern Dakotas and W/SW Minnesota.