CMC looks too progressive at the end for anything significant.

My frost count remains at 2. And one of those was an evening frost that was long gone by morning.

Unfortunately the GEFS is also highly volatile because it is an under-dispersed piece of garbage. If I had to guess, the 12Z EPS will trend slightly warmer but still remain well on the cold side of the GEFS.

Last night's EPS was quite cold.

this is why i focus exclusively on ensembles this far out. otherwise, the volatility is unbearable.