EAX explains why the Euro is likely doing a better job with this storm First, Happy Thanksgiving everyone! We hope you and your families are able to enjoy time together today! Now, onto the fun stuff... the winter storm that's moving into the area late Friday and Saturday. You've likely seen a few different "forecasts" floating around. Lots of snow. No snow. Who knows how much snow. Rain/snow. Rain. Etc... There is some credence to the "variability" you may have seen. Largely because there are dozens of models and then ensembles (lots of runs with slight changes) to digest. Inevitably you can find one that shows snowmageddon or one that shows zilch and probably many in between. Big time *ugh*. So how do we (let alone you) wade through the muck? Here is a snip-it/example of one way we attempt to determine which models to lean into more than others or less than others. Currently, the GFS (American flagship model) shows snow MUCH further south than its European counterpart. Why? ... In this case it is at least in part (if not most) due to the GFS having much lower Dew Points than the Euro, seen in current conditions (images here) and in the couple hours before precipitation begins tomorrow/Friday evening. Because the GFS is much drier, it leads to something we call "wet bulbing" ... where as precipitation falls and evaporates, it cools the air. The lower the dew points, the more "wet bulbing" can occur. This ultimately allows the GFS to snow further south than its counterparts that appear to be handling dew points better (closer to current reality). Phew, that was a lot tossed at you, but a quick peek behind some of what we're doing as we build a forecast... Oh, and by the way: 𝐈𝐟 𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐯𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐅𝐫𝐢𝐝𝐚𝐲 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐨 𝐒𝐚𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐝𝐚𝐲, 𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞 𝐮𝐬𝐞 𝐜𝐚𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐩𝐚𝐲 𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐨 𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐫𝐨𝐚𝐝 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬! 𝑭𝒐𝒓 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒊𝒎𝒂𝒈𝒆𝒔: 𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝑖𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝐸𝑢𝑟𝑜 𝑑𝑒𝑤 𝑝𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑎𝑡 9𝑎𝑚 𝑡𝑜𝑑𝑎𝑦. 𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑 𝑖𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝐺𝐹𝑆 𝑑𝑒𝑤 𝑝𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑎𝑡 9𝑎𝑚 𝑡𝑜𝑑𝑎𝑦. 𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝐸𝑢𝑟𝑜 𝑑𝑒𝑝𝑖𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑖𝑠 𝑚𝑢𝑐ℎ 𝑐𝑙𝑜𝑠𝑒𝑟 𝑡𝑜 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝐺𝐹𝑆. First, Happy Thanksgiving everyone! We hope you and your families are able to enjoy time together today! Now, onto the fun stuff... the winter storm that's moving into the area late Friday and Saturday. You've likely seen a few different "forecasts" floating around. Lots of snow. No snow. Who knows how much snow. Rain/snow. Rain. Etc... There is some credence to the "variability" you may have seen. Largely because there are dozens of models and then ensembles (lots of runs with slight changes) to digest. Inevitably you can find one that shows snowmageddon or one that shows zilch and probably many in between. Big time *ugh*. So how do we (let alone you) wade through the muck? Here is a snip-it/example of one way we attempt to determine which models to lean into more than others or less than others. Currently, the GFS (American flagship model) shows snow MUCH further south than its European counterpart. Why? ... In this case it is at least in part (if not most) due to the GFS having much lower Dew Points than the Euro, seen in current conditions (images here) and in the couple hours before precipitation begins tomorrow/Friday evening. Because the GFS is much drier, it leads to something we call "wet bulbing" ... where as precipitation falls and evaporates, it cools the air. The lower the dew points, the more "wet bulbing" can occur. This ultimately allows the GFS to snow further south than its counterparts that appear to be handling dew points better (closer to current reality). Phew, that was a lot tossed at you, but a quick peek behind some of what we're doing as we build a forecast... Oh, and by the way: 𝐈𝐟 𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐯𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐅𝐫𝐢𝐝𝐚𝐲 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐨 𝐒𝐚𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐝𝐚𝐲, 𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞 𝐮𝐬𝐞 𝐜𝐚𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐩𝐚𝐲 𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐭𝐨 𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐫𝐨𝐚𝐝 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬! 𝑭𝒐𝒓 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒊𝒎𝒂𝒈𝒆𝒔: 𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑠𝑡 𝑖𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝐸𝑢𝑟𝑜 𝑑𝑒𝑤 𝑝𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑎𝑡 9𝑎𝑚 𝑡𝑜𝑑𝑎𝑦. 𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑 𝑖𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝐺𝐹𝑆 𝑑𝑒𝑤 𝑝𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑎𝑡 9𝑎𝑚 𝑡𝑜𝑑𝑎𝑦. 𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝐸𝑢𝑟𝑜 𝑑𝑒𝑝𝑖𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑖𝑠 𝑚𝑢𝑐ℎ 𝑐𝑙𝑜𝑠𝑒𝑟 𝑡𝑜 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝐺𝐹𝑆.

Euro ai

Static euro 10:1

UK, GFS, and Euro, from south to north. The Euro has the strongest, sharpest mid-level shortwave and it shows in the snow maps. The GFS's heavy snow bulls-eye well south in Missouri seems dubious.

something something TNH, something something MJO something something SSW