Yes, it seems like the PV lobe to the northeast pulls on it, keeping it positively tilted for too long. If it could break free a bit sooner it would strengthen and become neutral to negatively tilted. I think the northern track over you or just getting going to my east make more sense this go around though.

Ukie

We just need it to get its act together sooner and we'd really have something. Trough need to be a little further west I think.

Not for me Ensemble consensus suggests something from a few flakes to maybe an inch if I get real lucky. Probably just a dusting.

Joe only cares about the East Coast.